Member Info for Alas_Smith

CSDI1962, at the risk of seeming perverse, if you analyse your portfolio every week, I suspect that you are very worried about it and as a result it is structurally wrong. So, start to think rationally and work out how you can address the situation. Start by being honest and establish basic answers. I guess that 1962 refers to your year of birth (you have disclosed the CSDI element already) and that means you are aged roughly 58. A young person. You also write form a masculine perspective, so I will assume you are male.

Be honest for a moment and establish what you want from your portfolio. You might want to preserve capital, have income or capital growth. What is your timescale? Is your portfolio expected to be your pension? (Mine is but I am using the SIPP rules for IHT planning). How is your portfolio structured? If you want capital growth - then how much, at what level of risk and are dividends to be taken as paper or cash - will dividends be re-invested?

FWIW, for the last 3 years I have reduced my risk exposure from HIGH to MEDIUM high. 2 weeks ago I raised it to high again.

Balance is important - weight your portfolio so that the BALANCE is structured for your portfolio - if you have capital growth as your priority, then weight your portfolio for at least half to be balanced, a quarter to be for recovery and at most a quarter to be speculative. INCLUDE in the weightings dividend income. And then look at sector investment.....

But if you want a balanced portfolio with medium growth, can I assume that you want to preserve capital and at least keep pace with inflation? If so then establish what inflation is for you and ONLY consider companies that have generated dividends to match that and have done for at least a decade. Try and have one or two holdings that go nowhere as your ballast and others that are terribly dull, generate solid revenues, have little or no debt but generate dividends double inflation.... TBC

Aus3009, I am in favour of debate. Where I draw the line is extremism. And ToffAppleton1 articulated extreme opinion that neither augmented debate nor advanced intelligence as far as I am concerned.

That Europe will face change on 1 January has been inevitable since decision was passed in 2016. That it took 3 years for the departing party to agree the terms of an acceptable financial split is one thing but in trying to tar the departing side with aggresiive and ill considered words smacks of unreasonableness. There is no point seeking to negotiate compromise with those dismiss the contention of seeking common ground when one side is so resolute and dismissive of the other.

I am sure that ToffAppleton1 is utterly charming, courteous and reasonable for the most part, but insofar as seeking compromise, it appears rather alien. So, rather than bore me, and those that are suffering the substance of this thread, I will assure you that I will never post to this board again.

Thankfully, the filter facility allows noise from bigots to be eliminated. ToffAppleton1 joins those filtered..

Hey, I have no issue with debate to enrich understanding, but yours is beyond contempt

djframboise, the similarity drawn between the millennium bug and the final date to leave the EEC (or rather the monster it morphed into, the EU) was quite deliberate in that it was a finite point. The difference that Brexit has is that few businesses have been able to put in place the contingencies required as the stance being taken by both sides was in anticipation of a deal. This year, in case it escaped your notice, businesses had the pressing matter of putting together solutions for their business to survive - Boris has only just begun to prime the UK for a no-deal - this gives the country about 2 weeks to cobble a solution together.

This all rather reminds me of the hoo-ha over the "millennium bug" which never materialised. The vast majority of the country will continue with their drab lives as they have done for decades. There might be a few changes that they will notice, but I doubt that these will be quite as pronounced as the sensational news headlines suggest.

But, if I am not mistaken, the UK imports far more from the UK than it sells to them and I wager that Johnny foreigner will still want us to ski in the mountains, eat their cheeses, swig wine or beer, gift flowers or chocolates, enjoy their beaches, meander along country roads in the rural countryside that punctuates beautiful cities. Perhaps even drive one of their motor cars?

The paperwork that is needed to send a parcel to Northern Ireland will be tedius to complete and if by courier will require a customs declaration. Not insummountable, of course, but the irritation is simply to have what is tantamount to a window of maybe a fortnight for such preparation the direct result of a lousy Parliament with inept and rather amateur negotiators that spent far too long discussing the terms to leave rather than establishing cross party consensus on the stance from which to negotiate a future deal once the decision to leave had been made.

At the point when 2021 starts, I would hope that the resolve of Parliament is to provide stability for entrepreneurial spirit to flourish and that as a country we curry favour with new partners for mutual benefit. Wishful thinking, of course,

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/press-shell-executives-exit-amid-tension-over-green-energy-shift-ft-z5v3e2l43pyljw9.html

Hope that helps

Monks Investment Trust is a buyer of recovery holdings at the moment with focus on miners and frontier internet. I have added to my holding in recent months despite it being a poor performer this year. The reasons for poor performance are obvious.

At the point of retirement, a new pensioner makes a contract with pension provider to use the "pot" for a guaranteed income. Depending on the age and history of the applicant, the payment can be varied. An obese 40/day smoker for instance is not likely to live as long as a slightly underweight teetotal so would have a larger payment from the same pot.

Mortality and morbidity tables are used in the calculations. Should a pensioner die within a very short time of becoming an annuitant, their pot is returned to their estate. Once that point has passed, it is retained by the pension provider.

In other words say retire at 66 with a £200,000 pot, it is not unreasonable to expect a pension of say £10,000 (numbers plucked from ether) where a male is expected to survive until 88. Multiply 22 yrs by £10,000 and the pension provider will need to be able to generate a 6% return from the pot to stand still after all the costs associated.

If the pensioner dies in first 12 months, pot generally returned less the pension provided and minor expenses. After that, it is kept by the insurer.
I hope that helps.

Work it out, Aus3009, start at the core for pension funds by establishing what they do and how they provide pensions. I'll give you a clue - annuities.

I have a few shares (735) in this which are in my ISA, plus 65 shares that I transferred into a discretionary trust for my children as part of IHT planning with 150 shares in a small dealing account. I tend to try and balance my holdings in disposing of weaker performers and adding to better ones. My last purchase was in October to add another 100 shares to my dealing account...... in time those 250 shares will be settled into my ISA.

It is an Investment Trust that is rather under the radar though there was a little press coverage in the Sunday Times yesterday

Oddly enough, I sold half of my holding in Adyen at the beginning of last week to buy shares in Varta. FWIW, there is speculation that equities in UK and Europe will out-perform equities in US. I shall continue to buy shares in BT as circumstance permit. I sold all my telecom sector shares in 2018 and last week was the start of a return. Time will determine the prudence of these disposals and acquisitions

For the last 14 years, I have had a battle EVERY quarter with BT either with billing, provision of service for all 100 lines to our offices. When Covid 19 reared its head to some prominence in January, and well before it gained a grip in the UK, we prepared for a complete change in the way in which our company undertook business and the decision was taken to cancel the bulk of our telephony and re-route the essential numbers to a single mobile device. The process took over 10 months to complete, was riddled with the involvement of differnent divisions. Clearly there is plenty of room for improvement and efficiency.

I note that Barclays https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/26/barclays-predicts-some-stocks-like-bp-could-rally-more-than-50percent-next-year.html are considering BT as a decent punt over the nest 12 months. And, I rather agree. It helps with a reduction in head count and even though it is not a business that I either like or, for that matter trust, it does not mean that it is a poor investment.

Today I dipped my toe in the water and bought some shares. 2021 has all the hallmarks (at this stage) of being a very good year for investors - stable and predictable government from USA, a wall of money to be chucked at markets worldwide as major economies look to protect themselves from the impact that the pandemic has caused and the requirement for broadband rollout has been eased.

Although the pressure is on Europe and the UK to agree terms for a future relationship with a game of brinkmanship in play by BJ (presumably from advice of Mr Cummins) I am not sure that a deal will be thrashed out because of the constraint that Covid 19 has had on all sides for readiness in case that departure is made on WTO terms. Sure there are compromises that need to be made on both sides, but unless there is a miracle that common sense prevails, perhaps the best that can be expected is an extension until Easter to allow for the rather more pressing matter of pandemic to be wrestled under the semblance of control.

This year, despite the horror of Feb 23 through to March 23 (and I made no change whatever to my portfolio), I am currently up almost 11.5%. This is very slightly below my long term average that has been gradually rising, more specifically from excellent performance in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018 (gains over 18% in each year) and a sparkler of a year in 2019 with gain of over 30%.

The wall of money expected to be chucked into markets around the world to prop up economies is substantial though an early rollout of vaccine may reduce the stimulus program. A key indicator is going to be employment numbers in USA and unemployment numbers in Europe. Rather depends on the small and medium sized enterprises as to whether they chuck in the towel or are supported to brave things out.

Has been a very difficult year for my business with orders suspended by 70% from February for 3 months and then preparing for these to be done between October and January.... we would usually be pitching around this time for next years orders, but enquiries have yet to be made.

So although quoted companies might be in for a great time, I believe it is actually going be be a pretty rough year for many.

I gather that Norweigen Air has filed for bankruptcy protection today

While national slots for that airline are unlikely to be prized, reciprocal slots might advantage EZJ as a European airline. FWIW, I used to contribute on another site as EJ. I trust I will not be hounded out as I was from that place. This might be my maiden and only contribution here.

Thank you for your considered remarks.

I remain bold to my contention that RDSB is a weak buy. And although the news from America is a decision on the election the principle uplift in the share price has been the statement from Pfizer on vaccine progress.

Sure, it is very good news and, IF peer review gives endorsement then there is high chance of emergency authority and rollout. And this good news, coupled with a change of USA President in 2021 has, I believe, been enough to give the world a sign of relief and a "spring in its step".

This buoyancy is great - I am not dismissing it at all - but it is important to consider the role of big oil in the future of energy. Shell is trying to move in the direction of renewables, but as a collossus, direction is better achieved through acquisition rather than organic/ systemic change.

Sorry if I am speaking out of turn and not adhering to the brittle agenda. Shell is a company I have followed and, for the most part have owned shares in for decades. Most of my holding was sold 3 years ago. I have fewer than 1,000 shares at the moment but began re-purchasing in earnest during 2020 with a monthly buy order

Pokerchips, the hope is for a decisive victory, whether blue or red from a financial markets perspective, I suggest as this will have the short term effect to throw colossal sums of money into the market to reserve economies. If blue is the decisive winner, then Paris agreement will be renewed and focus given to renewables. Crude price is at least stable at the moment and has little chance of growthunless there is a harsh winter or economies pickup...... leading to container ships sailing, airlines flying, hauliers moving goods and people using their cars.

Putting 1bn in perspective - my definition is that it represents the number of minutes in 3,000 years so 1tn is quite staggering

caitlin1, I am afraid that I have to disagree with you for this to be a strong buy. I will concede that it is a weak buy, but strong, no. The political complexion in USA will determine the next major direction for oil companies. A decisive Republican win will see oil shares improve considerably, a weak one, modestly . A decisive Democrat win will see a far faster shift torenewable energy and have no material effect on oil majors so they sink or swim for themselves. A weak win and it will put back renewable and traditional energy company prospects for at least another 4 years.

Of course, it is simply an opinion and the only reason I continue to add to my holding each month is for regular dividends. What a pity that Shells long period of fat dividends was changed.

I note that the price of oil is having a bit of a wobble with a drop of 4%. Mainly due to increased production by OPEC and Libya.

And, although I believe Trump to be a dangerous moron in high office dangerously out of his depth, in common with most, I wish him a speedy recovery

The construction of a portfolio will usually involve at least 5 holdings to expose to a greater or lesser extent to the principal sectors where oil, or rather nowadays, energy is one. That I sold the bulk of my holding in RDSB was in part because the share price was falling but more because technology as a sector was rising.

The present goal of MY portfolio is capital growth and I began to re-risk my portfolio 2 years ago form High risk to Medium High risk. Once there is a compelling case to buy shares in Shell, then I will add in more aggressive quantity, but the case to buy shares at the moment in RDSB or any in the energy sector is about nil (perhaps if we have a cold winter, then a better case could be made).

Weighting in my portfolio remains skewed to Technology equities, though for good measure I am adding to my holdings in emerging markets.

I like to believe that those that contribute to this thread are intelligent. Perhaps, in common with me, we are resigned to accept that oil companies as we KNEW them are history. Where we differ is our horizon and focus.

I'd like to believe that electric generation of power is the future, however sourced - oil, solar, hydro, tidal, wind etc - but for many of us Shell and its public face is petrol or diesel at fuel stations in most towns of any size. The ICE and all the markets and products associated with that are not going to end overnight. Strategically Shell is doing its best as a behemoth business to alter direction and move into areas where not only does it have monopoly economics but also first to the post advantage.

I am trusting that the senior managers ARE consider buying every business focussed on the provision of energy to accellerate change to a business model to cope with the next 50 years and needs to be in mainstream take up within the next 20 years. At the current SP, the market does not seem to attribute any value to a business capable of evolution.

Buying shares now may simply lock the yield in place for a ROCE in 16 years time or be considered idiotic. I have a soft spot for Shell and will keep my regular order to buy shares each month for the time being.