Member Info for Alas_Smith

RetiredCopper, I fear that by stubbornly waiting for a target price to arrive your greater loss will be that from missed opportunities that present themselves from time to time.

Don't get me wrong, this is meant as constructive advice as every loss, however small is painful.

Shares are valued in different ways, but typically it will include ratios of profit against other data (revenue, capital, assets etc), dividends, again as a ratio and to a very small extent, the direction that the company is taking with the managers effecting that change.

FWIW, I like the diversity that Shell has, with many streams of revenue. I like the recognition that needs to be more involved in renewables and to shed its origin from crude oil, refining and distribution, but I do not feel that the current BoD are quite committed enough to seek out the rapid changes required to benefit shareholders in the short term. There needs to be more acquisitions.

Short term there are downward pressures to stifle SP growth. These include oil glut, de-commissioning sites, a mild winter that in the N hemisphere is turning towards spring and fewer industries working at capacity, consequential on global pandemic. I still have a substantial holding in Shell but will continue to sell into strength as I identify better investments.

CSDI, half your SIPP comprises holdings that, to be candid, are stalwarts from last century. No problem if they are there for ballast but if you are seeking growth, those are not really the candidates that first spring to mind.

Hot sectors (at the moment) include, biotechnology, IT, alternative energy and the infrastructure for that. With the wall of money that countries are chucking into the melting pot to prevent economic collapse, it has to go somewhere. Banks make money when interest rates rise, so that rules that out,but financial exchanges rely on volatility (that could be exciting). Emerging market, particularly those which wish to mirror the consumerism led European and N American ones are worth looking at..... Aubrey is under the radar as an investment trust and is expected to out perform.

Anyway, this is not advice, simply the ramblings of a doddery investor. Good luck. And to others, sorry to be rather off topic, but despite still having a few thousand shares in Shell, my holding continues to be reduced though is a decent dividend generator. Capital growth is more probable from those current hot sectors than fags, oils and pharmaceuticals IMo

FWIW, I am not expecting much in the way of news to propel the SP for Ramsdens until the furlough scheme ends. Why? Well, that is the point when financial support from taxpayers dries up and those furloughed employees will discover whether their employer has work for them or not.

Apocrypal stories include claims that several hundred people seek every vacancy, many are not typical employees in such role. If unemployment rises, the bills do not become fewer and priority is given to things that actually matter. That is the point when RFX will begin to see business return, and sad though it is, pledges and sales are going to be more profitable than foreign exchange for the first half of this year and quite possible well into next.

I can understand the unwillingness to crystalise a loss. Long term investors will make mistakes in their share picks, sometimes by bunging money at absolute howlers and at other times by just buying at the wrong time. I sold another tranche of shares in Shell yesterday though I have held to a greater or lesser extend shares in Shell for over 40 years.

Although Shell remains in my portfolio the case for holding it (for me) has changed. Shell is much more than fuel at the pump for vehicles but for the company to grow, it can only really do so through acquisition. As it has become pretty stagnant as a business, it will not translate to a rising share price consequential on sales.

Investors do not have to make a profit with every bargain for their wealth to grow, but to use a gardening analogy the the 4 D approach works well - so get rid of dead, dying, diseased or disorderly material through regular pruning. This encourages new growth and the elimination of weaker holdings.

Following my disposal of a chunk of RDSB to bank a very decent profit, I have put the proceeds into this and Aberdeen Asia Income Fund (another Investment Trust) while I hunt out the gems that will be the new core. Although Shell has been a core to my portfolio over the last 40 years, it is clear to me that IT, Bio Technology and "green" sectors are the areas to be in, and although I have a few direct holdings in those that I have researched, I like to be fully invested. My holding is likely to be of short duration (under 5 years) as I research companies that will provide capital growth. I still hold Shell but only as ballast.

Is this the wind farm you mentioned?

https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/renewables-trig-spends-big-on-scottish-offshore-wind-farm/a1450597?

The valuation of assets if buying, selling or holding can be stated in 3 totally different ways. All plausible.

Decision made - I have today sold most of my holding in ATT but am keeping 500 shares - I am sure there is a little more growth in the share price but the proceeds have found a new home. The bulk has been invested in CME and the remainder in SONG.

The holding in CME is to compliment my holding in Deutsche Bourse which has done very well over the last year.

Hopefully the $1.9 tn package unveiled by President-Elect Biden will be welcomed I have increased my appetite to risk in the main because all the major economies are going to have a wall of money pumped in to ensure survival. This coupled with the beginning of world rollout of vaccine has all the hallmarks of a substantial uplift in markets for the next 12-18 months.

Thus far my decision to bung some money into this and the others mentioned has been to advantage. Boku up12.5%, Fevertree is down 3.77%, Varta up 30% and Tristel up 12.5%. The star, though is AFC which is up over 100%.

With a Biden administration shortly to take over the rein of power and a thoroughly rotten and twice impeached outgoing incumbant, I feel that for investors things are looking much brighter for the next 18 months. Looking back at history, more often than not a Republican President leaves office at the point of a recession. Most recent recessions are inherited by a Democrat incomer, last around 6 months but have very strong growth for 3 years and more typical growth for the next 6.

But, provided that my portfolio beats the market, I am content. The final figure for portfolio growth last year for me was 14.4%.

The share chart remains intact, but my concern is not that the trend will fail, but that the chart direction for ATT has been consequential on the stellar performance of Tesla. Each month, the company provides breakdown of portfolio holdings and some valuations seem a little frothy.

I am wrestling to make decision. Top slice to remove capital and allow profits to run, do nothing in expectation that trend will continue or sell and bank all profits. Past years, I have added to my holding in ATT but 2021 has the hallmarks of being a little different and although technology will continue to be as essential as say BP or Shell to a portfolio in the 1970's for 40 years, my hunch is that green energy is going to be the driver for the world post covid.

Not in a hurry to decide, I might add as covid is nothing like under control, but the intention is preparing portfolio for inevitable direction that will profit some sectors over others.

PeterH1.... China doubled oil consumption in 14 years is not in the least ridiculous. That is a tad over 7% growth each year, tiny compared with its GDP

Jay_1989, to answer the "DYOR - and how do I do it" is pretty well impossible to answer succinctly. There are far too many variables. So, establish the rules that you want from your investment. Timescale, risk, amount, expectation etc. Once you know that, then work out your exit strategy.

You could use charts that may give you either direction (momentum investment approach) or clues when to buy or sell. You might wish to work from fundamentals. What is the ROCE, current ratio, PE etc.? Are these improving or failing? How do these compare with previous years and competitor companies? What about future expectations? What are the persuading arguments to buy / sell?

FWIW, I am again reducing my exposure to Shell. The world will continue to need oil for many decades to come, but the smart money is turning/has turned to sustainable energy and there are (potentially) bigger rewards to enjoy.

Depite my aversion to windfarms and, what feels like smug reverence for everything David Attenburgh says, there is no reason why I should not make money from this and other companies/investment trusts in this sector.

I am making some changes to portfolio increasing risk medium high to high. My reasoning is simple; major economies in order to prevent collapse will be throwing a wall of money into the markets, that is good for equities. With a change of President in USA, the world is likely to have at least 4 years of more predictable government. More often than not, the Democrat party inherits a recession but over the 8 years in office markets rise very strongly. Vaccine will be rolled out, but the game changer will be the traditional AZN type that had not yet been approved. It is highly unlikely that the majority populace in UK will have received vaccine until at least the end of Summer and quite possibly late autumn.

Whether there is a brexit deal or not on 1 January, the expectation is that WTO terms will exist between UK and EU. Certainty is good for markets. Hot sectors, or at leaste those that are in focus now include technology, healthcare and environment. I do not buy shares with the intention to break even.

Good morning. I have dipped my toe in this morning putting a RDSB dividend to work. I have got to be honest in that I am a fan of big oil, having held shares in Shell for over 40 years, but I am also a realist in that change is happenning, albeit slowly. Seems a good point of entry.

blueboy310, the tax rules on holdings in AIM is quite clear. If you have held shares for more than 2 full and continuous years, there is no CGT to pay.

You might wish to use the rules for ISA wrapper where you are able to shelter in round numbers £20,000 for the tax year 2020/21 before the end of the tax year and a further amount in the new tax year, 2021/22. If you have not contributed to an ISA in 2019/20, then you are also able to go back 1 full year.

All gains and dividend in ISA wrapper are free of taxation. Losses on disposals in ISA wrappers have no benefit against CGT.

Some choose to use SIPP wrappers for investment - I am not totally certain of the limits in such wrappers. You may NOT draw against the assets or dividends in such wrapper until you retire. Tax is treated very differently, in that relief is given on cash deposited into such wrapper (takes around 3 months) and is deposited directly into the wrapper. Once you are ready to retire, you can choose to take a lump sum (subject to limits) free of tax but income from that wrapper is treated as income so subject to NI and income tax. Gains made in the wrapper are not taxed.

There are different age dependent rules if the pension pot has not been drawn against. It can be an efficient way to transfer wealth to others in a Will.

Please, however, note that the tax rules continually evolve and what might be correct now may not be correct in future.

MKumar - Charles Stanley on a discretionary basis by the Director of Private Clients and have done for years. Their fees are pretty steep but a small price to pay. Next year will be the last one where my wife and I can shelter the remainder of our liquid assets in ISA wrappers, though I daresay I will be the beneficiary under a legacy in the future. They also manage a Trust that we settled cash into in 2015 as part of our IHT planning. We (hope) to be able to settle another tranche in 2022 into it as that marks the 7 year point, but there is potentially a tax bill for it in 2025. Hopefully it will be of sufficient size to be able to help each of my children. They have started their careers and have great ambition. A generous loan from the trust might be just the ticket.

Oh, and to clear any confusion - 17 yrs salary was form the accounts at CS not from those managed by me - they did far worse wiping off 60% and still not fully recovered.

Tony8129 - I am certainly not qualified to give any investment advice, so you really must decide for yourself and not rely on others tips - that aside, it rather depends on the structure of your portfolio and appetite to risk. FWIW, I have an almost obscene exposure to IT, emerging markets and healthcare and many of these are at the cutting edge.

My capital is structured so that 98% wealth is managed for me but I look after the 4 remaining accounts (SIPPS for self and wife and 2 tiny dealing accounts). These 4 accounts represent about £100,000, the purpose for the SIPPS is IHT planning and the dealing accounts to provide spending money for holidays). I can thus be very speculative in my ambitions. Recent purchases include Tristel, Boku, Fevertree, Varta, Elekta and Illumina.

Despite a wobble in Feb and March to record a paper fall the equivalent of 17 years salary, I am up almost 13% on the year. I am expecting 2021 to be a very good year and have increased my appetite to risk from medium high to high. Are these ideas any good to you?

joojoo66, delighted that your mother has dipped her toe into unfamiliar territory, though AIM is often compared with the "wild West" rather than the more familiar names that appear on the main market. And although she has a birthday soon, until she sells her stake she has simply parted with real money thow has a paper profit from her decision. No-one gets rich until profits are banked, of course.

FWIW, 10 days ago, I disposed of some of my turgid holdings either in part or in full to make adjustment to my portfolio. These included Adyen, Roche, Nestle, Diageo and Halma. Although 2020 got off to a cracking start, between 23 Feb and 23 March, my portfolio (in common with most) plummetted. However, things have recovered and I am up almost 12% on the year.

I have increased my appetite to risk from Medium High to High and bought new holdings of shares in Tristel, Boku, AFC Energy and Fevertree with a doubling of my holding in Varta. I have, since those transactions added to my holdings in AFC and Tristel. Time will determine the wisdom of this, of course.

My portfolio is structured for capital growth and the reason for increase in risk is to take advantage of a number of factors - stable political governance in USA from 20 Jan 2021, a wall of money that will be added to markets around the world by State Banks propping up economies, a series of vaccines that have been approved for Covid 19, world committment towards green issues and interest in the health sector.

.... continued... Income seekers need not to worry about capital growth, but they might need to worry about capita preservation.

Hey... I have picked more lemons in my time and am not qualified to give advice. BUT, it seems to me that the structure of your portfolio is wrong for your tolerence to risk. I will lay my cards out and put on record that I have just under £20,000 invested in RDSB. That might sound a lot to some, but in terms of balance in my portfolio it is under 0.5%. At one time RDSB represented over 3% portfolio but I sold a large number of shares 5 years ago (along with other holdings) for IHT planning when I transferred capital to a discretionary trust and de-risk my portfolio at the same time.

My recent increase to HIGH risk has not included Shell - I have a standing order in place to invest £500 monthly in shares for RDSB - emerging markets, Asia, biotechnology, green energy and IT are the sectors that have been chosen with a disposal / reductuion of some turgid holdings such as Diageo, Nestle, Roche and Halma to make the changes.