Member Info for Alas_Smith

I do not own any shares currently in EZJ. There has been not a single instance since I began to build my portfolio (started in March 1979) when I have sold short. Mistakes, I have made a plenty, though they are fewer in number these days, though higher in value. I'd like to own shares again in EZJ.

Today was a down day (some of my holdings fell almost 7%) and, despite all the gloom and doom, the world has not ended. Tomorrow, no doubt there will be sensational headlines of the imminent collapse of markets, that there are going to be swathes of people laid off and all sorts of seductive lures to get attention.

But, hang on a moment, let's just asses a few facts and put them into perspective. We know that Covid 19 is mutating (and viruses do this for their own survival), but in doing so, it is becoming more viable (survival). Despite vaccine rolling out at a faster pace (in the western world) than new cases are being reported, the effects are not as severe. Sure there are cases and have potential problem for NHS, but the morbidity element is not as pronounced. Good news for both the virus in transmission and the world in coping with a dominant strain that will neither be erradicated nor as dangerous as first evidenced.

Vaccine rollout, coupled with a gradual lifting of restriction has an a"accordian" effect. Travel might be fine for UK citizens, but other countries are not yet as prepared for the new variant us the UK and it is right that travel for leisure is stifled (IMO).

I hope I have made it quite clear that (again my opinion) travel for leisure is unlikely to resume before the Autumn. Ordinarily I would put this as late September, but now, I am pushing it back a couple of weeks until mid October.

The market is forward looking. Summer is usually a flat month in terms of work, but a good time for investors as the dividends from the first half of the year and those companies reporting in the first quarter start to have their half year results. This provides flesh on whatever emaciated skeleton is followed.

We know that the travel market was stuffed during the worst of the pandemic, we also are discovering (even if we had not worked it out) that the re-opening of economies would be in staccato perhaps rather spastic (can I write that?) share price change (for quoted companies) so sharp movements are to be expected.

Market makers are as nervous as investors - the difference being a few noughts on the value of bargains transacted.

My target price, 850p has been breached, but my target momentum has not.

850p is a good price for EZJ, but I fear that 750p beckons over the next couple of weeks. The target momentum is a rising share price and this is the principle reason that I am not buying shares in EZJ at the moment.

Sorry if I am waffling again. A smithy has got a point but does not seem to qualify it to the extent that he/she could. Real investors like to understand the downside if reasoned, I think

Each is a 35 yd skip (100 ft in length), fully enclosed and dry.

However, I do accept that it is small beer in the overall scheme of things so I shall continue with our current arrangement.

Cardboard remains in very short supply with a 6 week or more lead time. Raw price rises are inevitable and SMDS are part of the solution, provided that they themselves receive board to cut. Boxes that my company ordered 3 months ago are expected in the next fortnight and it will permit the satisfaction of orders that are backing up. Price has risen 20% or so since March.

The RHS referred to 181m share in issue consequent on the fund raise. This figure is in statement on 13th.

I expect that my application may be scaled back, though to what exent, I have no idea.

A smithy, I can assure you that I am not wearing rose tinted specs. As my younger son has been working as a Doctor between ICU and Covid wards, in Dundee and Perth hospitals, I am fully aware of the rise and fall in cases. It is pretty harrowing to be signing off death certificates at the best of times, but 4 or 5 per shift is awful.

I have stated when the few shares that I bought for a small portfolio I manage were sold and I will declare when I repurchase shares in EasyJet. The current short term trend is falling, of that I do not deny. I like to buy shares in a rising trend and preferably to average up any holding which I do have. EasyJet is a fine company and, if you look at previous contributions of mine, I have stated when the share price was over a tenner that it was likely to fall to around 850p. I further qualified that as stating that I would probably buy when the SP was between 850p and 875p.

Anyway, my opinion is pretty immaterial and certainly any bargain I place is unlikely to move the price. Sure, the SP may fall further - actually I think you are correct in that it is likely to continue in the downward trend but probably not to the extent that your doomed remarks infer.

The point where I will likely buy is on news that flights from the UK are permitted to destinations that EZJ serve for travellers other than on compassionate grounds. I believe that I have also suggested that such point is unlikely to be evidenced much before the autumn. I remain of that opinion.

Of course, should the share price fall to say 750p, I will place a buy order as that has proven to be a support point in the recent past.

BTW, I have been around the block for many years haunting various sites contributing either as The Troglodyte on interactive investor, then for the next 19 years as Erogenous Jones on ADVFN and now on this site. I readily admit to making mistakes - most of the time too eager to invest but occasionally I bung money into a complete dog.

chopperpaine and Funda - at the risk of seeming patronising, contributor such as A smithy are VERY valuable indeed. Since their postings seem to call things exactly wrong, then it provides a decent enough reason to do exactly the opposite of their "guidance".

Back in the early 1980's there was an authorative contributor to LBC, Bob Beckman who provided a resume of business news and the prospects for the day/week/month ahead. He was very eloquent, but hopelessly wrong. At the time he recommended equities over property and then by the late 80's had taken an polar opinion. Many made a fortune doing the exact opposite of his suggestions.

I part share your opinion that there is a “good” time to buy shares in any company, but only when the element of risk : reward favours an upside.

And although A Smithy is peddling nonsense that the company will collapse, he is citing only part of the truth. The remainder of the truth is concealed. That being that vaccines are being rolled out to more people per day than the Coronavirus is affecting in Europe. Medical intervention, is sometimes necessary but has sufficient experience to reduce the instances of death. Most importantly of all is that countries have to return to work and their citizens have to accept some limitation as we cope with the virus and its variants to pay for the economic damage to each nations balance sheet.

Air travel for business and leisure is part of the solution. What is not in place are the changes that are needed to manage passengers in airport terminal and consistent rules for travellers. It is, for instance nonsense that I am governed by Welsh rules when half of the town in which I live is in England.

Since it seems difficult to bring the 4 governments of the UK to accept a common rule book, it will continue to mute any uplift in the short term.

It probably is a good time to begin to buy or add to shares in EZJ, but only hindsight will establish if there might be a better one. That is one of the common tools missing in all investor arsenals.

Looks as if my buy order went through today. I prefer averaging up and have no reason to doubt that momentum will advance the share price further.

Seemed a good day to add a few more - so I did.

No new broker notes since Berenberg in late June.

Well, third wave gathering momentum. I suspect a peak in cases in early August and more patients clogging up wards for treatment. The frivolous comments that voluntary mask wearing in enclosed enviromnet by politicians is unhelpful.

The bonus is that those of us that continue to add to our holdings can continue to accumulate with out paying too great a premium

Don't stress yourself. There is simply no point worrying about daily price movements, first because as a private punter you have no influence, second that corrections always happen on the up and the down side, third that despite whatever enthusiasm for a sector may be present the much broader market is consolidating.

Broadly, the market is in recovery and has been since the announcement of a viable vaccine. Economies are beginning to re-open and at some point the tap for endless printed "money" will be turned off. At the same time, mindful of Germany in the 1920's and currently countries such as Argentina, inflation is of concern. All the printed "money" has a price to be paid for its distribution and that is, of course, interest rates.

That in the 1950's through to the late 80's, interest rates were pretty stable at somewhere between 6% and 10% but really began to come under pressure in the mid 1990's when they rose to 16% or so. Since then, they have been steadily falling and that, coupled with the relaxation in lending terms plus increased choice of lender has been the driver of house prices. As the traditional family unit of married couple and 2.3 children (or whatever the statistic used to be) no longer exists, and the "nation of shopkeepers" has been acquired by retail chains, living above the shop ceased a couple of decades ago.

With a growing population that needs to live somewhere, so it is necessary to develop land. I cannot pretend that I would ever live in any house built by any of the current crop of house builders, but they do seem to sell an awful lot of them and at premium price.

Pervesely, this investor tends to buy on down days and although I hold shares in Persimmon, Vistry and Ibstock, I am not inclined to add to any until the rumoured review of Stamp Duty is undertaken.

Low interest rates are sustaining buoyant house prices which, with the prospect of rampant inflation are likely to rise. I doubt there to be a rise this year, but too swift a rise and it will have material impact on affordability for borrowers.

With the early payment of special dividend, my attention will be on cash held and debt on the balance sheet.

I've put in for my maximimum allotment.

Well, Ol' Uncle Sam returns to the grindstone tomorrow and, although I am not expecting a big pull back, I am expecting technology sector to run a bit flat before advancing again. I'm certain that AI will begin to feature in many employment decisions to reduce headcount in semi-skilled positions, countered by technicians, development and service engineers that will expand the IT sector.

Sadly, as my wife decided that she wanted a new horse lorry last week, it has left a bit of a throbbing sensation in my wallet. But, if things are a little flat, it might provide a silver lining for me.

Quite a bullish statement and received well.

As at Friday, I had not the courtesy of reply. I had hoped, at least for a holding email

You are quite correct. I apologise that my ascription to Brew Dog as connected to Irn Bru was wrong.

The update was well received.

More drivel from me.... chatting away merrily to self..... have things changed in the last 10 days? Well the share price has recovered lost ground but there has been no cunning plan either at hospital or political level to address the millions of elective procedures that had been cancelled in the last 18 months.

We know these will be put into effect, but the timing is not within our determination.

Government has been disturbed with the changes evidenced in the last week so new initiative from that source is unlikely. It is of comfort that the share price advanced today

lordloadsoflolly - I have never shied from the truth and am not quite sure how to reply, but as there is anonymity on bb's - here goes.

I am both a simpleton and complicated. Complicated because I manage the SIPPs for self, wife and both children. I also manage 2 speculative personal accounts and the ISA son. My ISA and that for my wife are managed on a discretionary basis and have been since 2002. A discretionary trust into which I settled an eye watering amount in 2015 is also managed on a discretionary basis. The discretionary stock broker is Charles Stanley.

So, to provide clarity I have shares in ATT in differing amounts in the following accounts - my ISA, my SIPP and elder son ISA. I have shares in ISPY in my ISA. I have shares in SMT in elder son ISA and my wifes SIPP. My wife has low exposure to technology through Investment Trusts but does have exposure through Polar Global Technology.

In all, although my holdings have been scaled back in terms of numbers, it is because turgid holdings have been liquidated and better performing ones strengthened. Within my ISA for instance, my most valuable holding is NVDA and although it represents almost 5% wealth (for greater then my target max of 4%), I don't have a problem with this as momentum is on its side.

This month the ISA holdings for self and wife crossed a major threshold. These, along with elder sons ISA, the distretionary trust and both childrens SIPP are at all time highs. The laggards are SIPPs for wife and self - consequence of poor decisions in in 2016 and worse decisions in 2017 - this saw an 80% collapse in capital. Most of it has been recovered so am now just 16% down from previous high in 2015!

For myself, I failed to get into medical school, cannot bear the "old school tie" process used by contemporaries to enjoy employment in rarified environment and abominate political authority. I am, I suppose a genuine anarchist in my disapproval of all governance.

So, you will note I am very open in my comments, hide nothing and always am honest in my opinion. I have got things right more often that I have them wrong. This year I am up against my target 16% and am targetting 21% overall growth. There are always going to be some holdings in a portfolio structured for HIGH GROWTH that fall by the wayside, with high growth comes HIGH RISK. I am happy to accept a 50% loss on 50% of my holdings. Occasionally I go on holiday. it is on these rare occasions that I do not pay heed to those holdings under my influence. History and part of the game.

A portfolio takes decades to build, goes through many phases where goals are reached and new ones created. Our eventual goal is to be able to settle all assets that my wife and I have worked bloody hard to build up on our children while enjoying good health without financial impairment.

I will not comment further on this board. Phew!

With the collapse in June of lumber prices, I suspect that has more influence on the closing of the gap between NAV and share price.

Don't get me wrong, I am all in favour of a fast buck, but experience has determined that such events are both speculative and rare - better to accumulate wealth in every holding that is under the radar and very gradually. This IT fits the bill (for me)