Member Info for Alas_Smith

clued - consumers are NOT demanding oil. They are actually clamouring for clean energy BUT they are not able to suddenly convert their house from having fossil fuel powered central heating or a vehicle that can be run and re-fuelled to the same extent to which they have been used in the past.

Transition is happenning. It has started in the UK with new house build policy. Infrastructure is gradually being rolled out and vehicles are becoming more capable of running on electricity. Ripping out a CH system costs quite a bit of money and replacement rather more. It will happen, but over decades.

Next, Ed1 - since the price of fuel in the UK is substantially taxes rather then the price of heavy or other refined oil, consumers will vote with their feet. £5 might happen, but very temporarily. Much more likely is that production will be ramped up and pump prices will fall.

With Afghanistan situation developing, I am expecting crude prices to rise temporarily. Harsh regimes with laws rooted in intolerence and imposition will have out political leaders squiring for a solution. Because economies have been mauled through health measures, I am expecting a strengthening of relations with countries neighbouring Afghanistan to prevent overspill of the internal tensions.

I really don't care if a country wishes to face the future by an adherence to what was appropriate in the first 8 centuries. What I find extraordinary is that there are fanatics that seek to impose such rule on others. I tend to give such bigots as wide a berth as I did to the grotesque antics of those claiming "libertarianism" as portrayed by that wretched woman who was the UK PM in the late 1970's. Zealots, the whole lot of them.

I have the final few bargains to dispose of in my dealing accounts which are being transferred to SIPP accounts. My SIPP accounts are very long term arrangements and only for IHT purpose. My dealing accounts are medium term for planned purchases, such as new car every 8 years. These comprise around 12% portfolio with the remainder managed professionally and all sheltered in ISA wrapper. In those professionally managed accounts I no longer hold any shares in Shell - I had transferred 14,309 shares in 2012.

In part I agree.... in that the UK market APPEARS to be undervalued. That has been the case since the UK went the the polls to vote to leave the EEC/EC/Eu whatever it is called. Rather than consider the UK under valued, I feel that it has been overlooked, and, frankly, rightly so. However, once it became clear that not only has the UK remained a viable place in which to do business, it has actually coped remarkably well with the rollout of the vaccination program to control the mortality from morbidity that Covid 19 and its variants have presented.

That TTG is an excellent company on its own merits with decent managers is gratifying. This is shown in the continuing improvement in the share price. I am not a fan of short termism and simply selling up the moment that a bidder appears. Not that an uplift in the SP is not welcome, it simply means that there might be a void in my portfolio, the bidder may not be listed and I have to look for the next winner to fill that gap. And sometimes there is a knock on effect to impact other holdings. The consequence (for me) might mean a partial re-composition of my portfolio.

Yet, I have done exactly that a few weeks ago - sold up holdings in VTY and PSN to sit on 6% cash (very unusual for me as I like to be fully invested). I also took some profits off the table in Nvidia by disposing of 30% of my holding as I am not convinced that the purchase of ARM will go ahead. This added even more cash. My decision was to weight my portfolio to smaller UK companies, specifically TSTL and MTU. To address the partial void with NVDA, I purchased shares in ASML and although bought my stake in MTU to 8% portfolio, I added some shares in MINI for good measure. Time will tell whether I am correct or not.

In the meanwhile, although we start to close the month and September is usually flat, August has been pretty good for my portfolio and I hope that yours has also fared well. At this stage, I have a paper uplift of slightly under 11% and expect to complete the year (if things go according to my projections) with a portfolio gain of 18.4% I am expecting 2022 to build on momentum but taper off quite hard from July to the end of the year. 2023 has all the hallmarks of being very flat indeed. But, who knows what opportunities await?

The "fool" website has a habit of writing sensational headlines and putting a plausible evolution as narrative. Climates have always changed but it is the rapidity of change that is of concern. The SP for RDSB will not fall to zero - quite ridiculous - Shell has been very good to take advantage of the unfolding future. Gas..... and the infrastructure that it requires can be adapted.

Hydrogen might have a future, but oil is always going to be needed. Stone is still needed today, but the Stone Age did not end for lack of stone. Cash generated by RDSB could be conserved for say 6 months and I wager it would be sufficient to buy whatever the future is and thus re-invent itself. In a nutshell, RDS has not been able to grow except through disposal and acquisition. I've seen this through the 70's to date and nothing will change.

I added a few last month and a few this, but I am only doing so as Shell as an oil company has been kind to me over the last 40 years, but I hope that with whatever the future might hold, will be kind to my heirs as these are part of SIPP holdings for IHT purposes.

FWIW, I have sold up all my investments in housebu8ilders but have kept my shares in Ibstock. With a return of Stamp Duty Land Tax and at punitive rates, I could not see any advantage in retaining housebuilders, there is, though a compelling case for brick makers!

I cannot provide any verifiable evidence to support my contention, but I will bow to the comments of my younger son who is a hospital Doctor in a teaching hospital in Scotland. Elective admissions are starting to replace emergency admissions and the backlog of cases deferred is beginnig to be addressed. A full blown plan is being created to make full use of operating theatres during “working hours”.

These are not working hours for hospitals but that that can be reasonably rolled out to patients….. 8:30 to 17:45 thus getting the quickies out of the way first and last thing or using them to fill gaps in surgeries that are outide typical times for procedures or cancellations

The short term trend reflects the actions that the Chinese Govt are enaction on business. It might go on for a few more years, but the mkt have taken thisinto account to have marked the shares down.

When the Stock Market has a sale, most run for the door. I am on the prowl for bargains.

The balance has now shifted, of that I am convinced. With 75% UK population having full vaccine protection, the emphasis is now to ensure that those receiving 1st dose are more than those presenting with Covid19.

Not only are our territorial boundraries opening, but so too are the restrictions to consumers being lowered. Masks are mandatory in public property and shops which provides a reminder that SARS in any variant affords caution, but as each mutation occurs, although there is an increase in the rate of transmision, (morbidity), hospitalisation is reduced atbpeak and mortalility through treatment and mutation is reduced.

Of course, that is not to admit to complacency. There remains for those without vaccine protection real danger, but I just get the feeling that the worst is over and although the journey out is going to be turbulent, recovery is happenning

A month or so ago, I gave instruction to my broker to sell my holdings in Oil and House builders in favour of UK smaller companies and hygiene based companies to the health sector. My holdings in TSTL and MTU were strengthened and a new holding, MINI was admitted to my portfolio.

Thus far the decision, although at comsiderable cost, has not quite broken even (dealing costs, spread and stamp duty), it has given confidence to me thatmy portfolio is better aligned to the next 18 months than it was with capitl locked in housebuilders.

Nothing wrong with housebuilders, but just have the feeling that micro enterprises are going to be the beneficiary in the re-opening of economies

There is probably a very plausible explanation that your nominee account provider will be able to resolve. It might just be a tick box exercise. I really don't know. The bulk of my money is managed on a discretionary basis and had been once I transferred matters 15 years ago. I left myself with all the shares that I was too embarassed to mention at the time. Some went bust, others did better, but I have basically restructured things so that I can transfer this next year and not need to worry about my finances again. I am now concentrating on building up SIPP accounts for IHT purposes so I will keep my hand in until these are able too to be able to be managed on a discretionary basis. The threshold with my broker is £500,000 for each SIPP and I am a long way off that at the moment!

Not sure whay you should have your dividend paid today. The shares only went xd this morning and will settle on 23 September so I am struggling to attribute any reason why you should be singled out to receive payment in advance of its release.

But, I will accept you at your word. Insofar as our tax status is concerned, a witholding deduction might be because you have exceeded the dividend allowance for UK tax holders or there is a country specific tax charge in place if you are located outside the UK.

This, of course, might be information that you were unaware. Since I have managed to shelter all investments bar £16,000 in ISA wrapper, April 2022 will be the last year that I may have potential charge to CGT, though on such a small sum it is unlikely.

We know that 6% or thereabout would be taken off the SP (404p) but any change up or down is simply down to market movement. Some holders, of course, will head for the door knowing that they will receive the dividend, but I am treating it as an opportunity to top up investments with dividends received. That from Halma arrived this morning so I will use it, along with the pitiful amount received from Mastercard yesterday.

jim800, I have held shares in my portfolio to a greater and lessor extent for over 40 years. In that time, I have seen the company buy other FTSE companies such as Enterprise and become the bloated behemoth that it is now.

There will still be a place for oil in the future (remember the stone age did not end through lack of stone), but the business for Shell is going to change. I am actually selling down my holdings in Shell at the moment when there is optimism. Shell as a company is evolving to meet the future which is renewable energy, but is wasting money through share buy backs (IMO). The millions spent on buybacks could be far better used to re-position the company to the future revenues from energy.

Such a policy would gain the applause of the generation that I am expecting to fund my reliance on the NHS without needing to dip too far into my savings.

All seemed to go a little pear shaped this afternoon...... I cannot see a compelling reason to sell my shares at the moment, so in the absence of news, plus ca change

Has the SP been a little perkier recently, or is it just me imagining things?

Still here, still adding.

I will never post on this thread again. I have tried wherever I can to be as polite as possible and provide information that can be verified. You can deal with the insufferable, deceitful and mendacious A.smithy to peddle false information and insult those that have a different view, if you wish, but frankly I am bored rigid and both of us seem to be a broken record. But I can play my part by withdrawing from any further debate on the prospects for this business.

First, passenger levels rising form 20% capacity to 60% capacity will gradually happen. July 19 might be for the bulk of the UK, but not for Wales or Scotland. Next, those that seem to be ignoring the return to office seem to refer (if it is the same article that I read) to Civil Servants and by the spokesperson representing middle and junior employees.

In my experience in business, few, if any junior employees are requried to fly for business reasons, some middle ranking employees occasionally fly for work, but most that are business flyers tend to be senior managers that report directly to the boardroom.

If EasyJet really were an airline targetting business passengers then I might place some credence on your argument. EZJ has all the hallmarks of a consumer facing airline that will inevitably attract some business flyers based on the flight destinations. You therefore could be correct in your analysis, but such observation, I wager is not applicable to the business model that ESJ has.

All the airlines that are structured for business flyers, tend to have extensive business lounges, different class seating arrangements and a range of in-flight offers that include decent food, comfortable seating, extra legroom and baggage allowance appropriate for the flight. EasyJet has unappealing food, cramped seating and charges premium for additional legroom and baggage. "National" carriers such as KLM, Air France, BA, Lufthansa etc operating on domestic routes have these facilities and in the main those that do offer such premium service are more suited for long haul destination.

Your argument is pretty hollow I believe.

Well, for a start, konan100, if the press is to be believed, then the return to office life is being encouraged at the moment, next, remote working is fine to a point, but certainly not ideal for most businesses and occasionally senior managers need to actually see their customers or suppliers, visit their premises, discuss new synargies and attend exhibitions, conferences and all the things that require in-person meetings.

There is an interesting article from Hargreaves Lansdown

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/short-haul-vs-long-haul-airlines-whos-got-the-bumpier-ride

That might be helpful to you and others. For the short haul, it compares EasyJet with Ryanair, two very contrasting businesses. I have made it clear in previous posts that I do not applaud or trust the ethics, charactor or style of the boss of Ryanair. For me, trust in the managers is very important, far more so than the business in which it operates.

When I commuted by air, it was a weekly flight to arrive in Amsterdam on a Sunday night and return to UK on Friday afternoon. And this I did for a couple of years. KLM was my carrier of preference, I did not consider any low cost airline. mind you that was back in 1999 through to 2001 (just). It was ghastly.

But things have changed and ESG is on the agenda for most businesses. However, you might do well to read up on Parkinsons Law from the excellent book, The Persuit of Progress written in the 1950's. So while lip service is paid to the ESG to which you refer, practically, it will probably have completely the opposite effect and raise sanctimonious comments.

Konan100, what evidence have you that business travel will diminish?

All the evidence is pointing to business returning to work in UK and Europe. The managers forecast that capacity will increase to 60% of pre-pandemic levels. I do not see a return to profit for EasyJet for another 2 years as a minimum and then a further year or so of retained profits to address long term debt. Only then will investors perhaps see a return of dividend payments.

If you wish to make worrying comments, then it would be helpful to provide reasoning. I like opinion that provides a check to enthusiasm. I have never denied that there are many times when I have picked companies that have not performed to MY expectation though these are fewer nowadays than in the past. If you are unwilling or unable to do that, I will consider your contribution to be as valued as that for A.smithy, worthless.

In about 3 weeks time, schools return to their classrooms - a common feature for Europe and Christmas and New Year become the focus for families. I deliberately have not included American festivities such as Halloween and Thanksgiving as these have little impact on business connected with European air travel.

We know that vaccination has worked to allow countries to restart their economies and remove the restriction to movement. We also know from that those presenting Covid 19 and require hospitalisation are younger and overwhelmingly have not been vaccinated, either through choice or age priority. We also know that for herd immunity is again in the spotlight and the latest intelligence suggests this will not happen until there is 90% vaccination of all persons of adult age. What we don't know is the age that is deemed to be adult - it is likely to be either 16, 18 or 21 - so that is, if you like one of the unforeseen elements of recovery.

Of course, a pandemic ceases to be a pandemic until it no longer presents threat worldwide and if we are honest with ourselves, although the UK, Europe and USA are well advanced with vaccine, even developed countries such as Australia are a long way behind so there is chance of further mutation. This places a duty on those countries that have brought their populace to herd immunity to distribute and administer vaccines to the rest of the world.

What does this mean for the share price? Well, to be truthful, I really don't know. This is the first pandemic I have witnessed so I cannot draw against my memory. Recovery for EZJ is in evidence - although passenger numbers cannot really be compared on a year:year basis, we can accept the managers guidence to the increase of passengers to 60% capacity. And this guidance was made when much of Europe had onerous conditions of travel. With the prospect of schools returning I am expecting the return of the long weekend trip and advantage taken of the inclusive packages offered by EZJ to entice passengers to return.

Rise from 20% capacity to 60% capacity does not happen overnight - weeks rather than days. Winter schedules begin in October time to take us through to Feb. I would hope by then that the pandemic for Europe will be over (sure there are going to be flareups) but business to capacity from Easter next year is on the cards. I expect the SP to be flat for a couple of weeks but gently rise once the clocks go back to Greenwich Mean Time.