Member Info for Alas_Smith

Don’t stress it…. Share prices rise and fall. In isolation some shares perform well some days and badly on others, but over time investors accumulate shares in differing sectors, geographies and prospect. Todays fall for holders is a blow but for potential owners, opportunity.

There are more “up days” than “down ones” and longer periods of growth than contraction. Today, my wealth was marked down the equivalent of a years salary, but tomorrow, I might recover a month or so or suffer further loss. It is simply an entry in a ledger.

September (for me) is usually one where there is contraction in wealth, October is flat and growth resumes in November with the hope for a Santa Rally but the big gains are often seen in the first quarter of any calendar year

2022 might be different, as could the remainder of 2021.

Of course it was serious. The comments made by YOUR reference to Equity Development shortly after the RNS for the AGM was published coupled with the post by what I infer to be representative of that research company earlier in the day suggest to me that a prepared statement had been released. Statements can change between release and presentation so although in the last 42 years, I have made many investing mistakes including attributing credence to companies that provide research, I do prefer these days to dip a toe in to a new holding before I throw a decent chunk into the ring.

Equity Development remain a company that is unfamiliar to me.

What exactly is your point?

the rise today, I suspect was more due to statement made at the AGM than Equity Development (I have not heard about that company before) opinion.

It is possible that your broker has not completed the distribution process and has split things into separate componant elements.

The RNS issued today shows there has been a director taking advantage of unusual market pricing.

Disappointing though it is to learn of the collapse of 2 energy companies today, the knock on effect is likely to impact further once the cap on prices is lifted on October. 800,000 consumers are affected by todays energy news and although they will not lose supply, it is quite possible that they will be placed on a tarriff that is higher than that to which they are used. The ceiling lift in October could add a further 12% to energy prices and, with the removal of £20 emergency cash each week to benefit claimants, there is a reasonable (though, rather unpleasant) case in favour of RFX for increased turnover.

High gas prices are not as a result of crude oil change, more a reflection of wind; too much in USA from hurricane Ida that knocked out production and too little in Europe to power wind turbines. The world is gradually getting back on its feet and, with the resumption of air travel, confidence to add to my holding in RFX is building.

I notice that Jeffries have altered their analysis for Rio with a downgrade. I do value the opinions of Goldman Sachs, Deutsche and J P Morgan.

Not sure whether there has been an uplift in volume since the share split, but the trend for the SP when adjusted for the 5:1 split appears to have remained intact.

Goldman Sachs (GS) stuck their neck out back in March with an argument for a mining supercycle. Since then, share prices in some of the Major mining companies have struggled to make any advance through headwinds of staccato re-opening of the world from the pandemic. I can appreciate why GS had made this prediction with the spending announcements for new infrastructure to address "greening" of nations, but the present headwinds are not through lack of ore but the shortage of coking coal and both high price and shortage of gas.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-supercycle-ahome-idUSKBN29A1QM

I have added a few more today on current weakness. Seemed rude not to take advantage of todays fall on top of last weeks one. Still underwater, but as there is no expiry date in my birth certificate, I have time on my side.

Despite the advantage of many decades of building my portfolio, I find I repeat the same mistake time and again. Not in the choice of investment but in timing my purchase. My holding is underwater, partly because I prefer to be fully invested but also that I target capital growth. This I have done since the late 1970’s. For purists, perhaps I represent a classic cliche of time in the market rather than timing the market.

Shortly investors receive a dividend plus a special one for good measure. I always take dividends as cash. With all the pointers suggesting a “super cycle” for mining Majors, it makes sense to keep chucking money into RIO for a couple of quarters. I am not fussed if a little underwater is a fe holdings provided that MY portfolio beats the market. Common sense provides a compelling case to invest in RIO. This is challenged when reality betrays historical prospects on which fnancial decisions were made

If not mistaken, we have a dividend to receive this month.

appleby, the backlog is secondary to the immediate issues in hospitals. Immediate issues are emergency treatment and care of patients presenting with respiratory problems that seem, more often than not, to be a direct consequence to covid infection. Those admitted are, for the most part, unvaccinated.

The NHS in the UK is going to be in for a very rough winter with both seasonal 'flu and covid19 in whatever variant is most prevalent. FWIW, I suspect that there are going to be simple measures re-introduced such as the mandatory wearing of masks in all public places and a ramping of effort to encourage vaccine takeup. I would not be surprised if there is a clampdown on those that either knowingly or unwittingly spread false or misleading information which is having effect on some.

Although I had bought more shares in my ISA account, I have disposed of my shares in 2 dealing accounts to raise money for a new car. Now that I have my new car, I will be building up my dealing accounts and will look to increase my exposure to those equities that are likely to have strong growth. At the moment, I am reluctant to invest more in TSTL and await results that are usually published in late September / October.

Results seem OK, but there are headwinds to face to impact future despite easing of restrictions for on-trade sales. Good to see the dividend lifted.

Marshalls also are running out of stock.

There are up days and down ones. Same with weeks and months. In my experience September is a flat or down month and October a flat or up month. I am not fussed with interday or interweek movement but I do look at my portfolio on a monthly basis so that any dividends accumulated are invested every 6 months or so.

The advantage with news is that it provides information for a more level playing field to asses if the market valuation immediately before news is accurate. What I might interpret as good news and prospects might have fallen short of market opinion to see the share price fall. And although is disheartening might provide a good opportunity to deal in the shares.

In the old days, AGM’s were a great opportunity to discover what competitors were up to and questions were couched for more detailed replies than the stock answers from the briefing team had designed and usually included information inadvertenly disclosed.

I suspect that todays rise was more from the upgrade by JP Morgan than buying pressure. FWIW, I have chucked a little more cash into the hat with a buy order. It will not move the price.

My average is based on having started investing in 1978. I have seen plenty of recessions, corrections and crashes. Average since 2012, though is a little over 18%.

In terms of timing the market, well I prefer to be fully invested and it is rare for me to hold more than 2% cash. The up times in markets generally last a lot longer then the down time. Dividends generate an average 0.181% monthly.

My late father-in-law was the European Sales and Marketing Director for IBM in the 80's and made the most interesting observation that resonated with me.

Most companies go bust with a full order book.

Suggests to me that these wer viable enterprises but either under capitalised or had dreadful cashflow. Rich pickings for BEG if such factor remains true today.

I've taken the opportunity to add some today for elder son in his ISA.