Member Info for Alas_Smith

Shares have gone xd today so the price rise is a nice bonus.

Variants are expected. What we are not able to ascertain at this stage is the mortality from the latest variant but we do know that there is increase in morbidity.

Morbidity is expected as the virus obeys Darwins theory for the survival of the fittest. Morbidity is the rate of infection. What is worrying markets is whether the latest variant has a higher mortality rate than its predecessors. My hunch is that it does not and that the sell-off last week was panic. We will probably continue to have similar panics for many months to come until the pandemic is downgraded to epidemic (July 2022 perhaps). That will be the point where vaccine (most probably) has contained the virus and may then be viable only as endemic where it presents in a particular country or people.

So, yes, I agree, volatility is likely but with that there is opportunity.

There are many ways to value a business. And none of them are perfect. The price of the shares is fluid, hence the wide daily range of movement. The price may or may not reflect the current or future turnover that is expected, the profit or loss from the turnover or the distribution of proceeds from profits or disposl of assets.

The market cap is a snapshot of value on formal dates and changes based on share price movement is relative between such announcement.

There is a chasm difference between a Director purchase and bargains executed in a share buy back.

The buy back is undertaken at the discretion of a Merchant Bank in amounts and timings that are determined through the timescale of the company and algorithim chosen by the Bank. Director dealings are of minimal importance and negligible effect on the market cap. The market cap is of interest to all investors and with fewer shares in circulation, the M Cap will rise even if the share price remains static.

The share price is only relevent at the point when an investor wishes to deal in the shares. The market cap is of particular interest to fund managers that can only deal or hold shares in companies whose mkt cap exceeds a minimm level in their articles.

Sadly, I am fully invested.

Laying some cards on the table, I have been around for many years. This is my 3rd incarnation (The Trodlodyte on II, Erogenous Jones from ADVFN preceded me), but my style has not changed.

I seek capital growth and any dividend thrown off is a bonus. I try to research as best I can the companies in wich I have interest. HILS is of appeal and the fundamentals have not changed since my purchase, though what has changed is news. The news is flat and that is fine with me. Had I some spare cash, I would happily add to my holding.

I like the approach that the managers adopt in their focus on higher margin work over lower stuff. Business in US will be brisk as Mr Biden has his infrastructure program passed through Congress. It will translate to turnover in the months ahead

Well, that was ill-timed. Mr Market did not like the update.

Well, the market was not too impressed with the recent news - I've formed the impression that Virolens is a non-starter. Pity.

There are occasions when having extensive knowledge of an industry and a thorough understanding of a business allows an investor to be ahead of the game, but more often than not, investors need to have a background in understanding financial accounts, read the notes that accompany the numbers, compare against competitor companies and make judegments on the ability of the managers to be able to direct the underlying business.

Financial analysts in the backrooms have the same information as all of us, but tend to be a little more thorough. It is their reports that are presented in meetings to Fund Managers and those that they advise that determine whether there will be dealing transactions.

Mr Market liked the results, approved of the changes made and the direction that the managers wish to take RMG. The consequence is that the market capitalisation for the company has improved. The underlying share price has risen as have recent volumes of bargains executed.

to determine in In common with tonysilverman, I have been steadily building my portfolio for over 40 years and have got things more right than I have wrong. I too have bought more shares in RMG today. Sure there have been those that have taken a profit to have a little dip today, but technical dealers will note that the 50 day MA was broken today and the price has moved back to the 200day MA. Both are rising.

The smart money is pushing the SP ahead.

Questionsabout, thus far you have submitted a barrage of completely unsubstantiated tripe. It is disruptive. Please desist.

Holygrail, it is a rational comment that you made, but as an old duffer who has been invested in the markets since the late 1970's, I believe your conclusion may only be appropriate for those with very short term perspective. Long term investors are not too fussed about nuances in the price today, yesterday or tomorrow as their perspective is for a time scale commersurate with investing.

Sure, an investor might have a target in terms of % uplift or that of time, but investing is not a race. I for instance bought shares following the most recent results. I have bought for capital growth and my holding is more valuable now than when purchased. So what? A profit or loss is neither until the shares are sold and proceeds in bank. Never wrong to bank a profit, but as an old timer I have found that it is far better to let the profits run but take losses early.

It is quite natural for investors to be enthusiastic about a company in which they have made appropriate research and bought shares so that they participate in future returns. It is also quite natural to be pessimistic if a company i poorly managed, undercapitlaised and face stiff commercial or geopolitical headwind to avoid the company and perhaps the sector.

Good fortune to all. FWIW, I pay great heed to those that provide fabulous research. The professional investor selling short usually undertake very penetrating research. Shorttracker.co.uk is a few days behind but does note change with accuracy. With RMG the level of shorts sold short is negligible.

Absolute tripe. You seem to have a chip on your shoulder which for investment decisions is not healthy.

Short selling is a dangerous game that although has a role to play in the City, amateurs engaging in such methods more often than not find themselves dangerously exposed. Smart investors accept that time in the market usually is best.

The case to invest in the shares in Royal Mail is now pretty compelling. Sure, there are many improvements to be made, but those that have been addressed are working. Change is seldom liked at grass root level but is necessary to meet future evolution.

The value attributed to II is reported in todays news. Since there are rumours either for an IPO or a bid, the book value and the realise value might be different. My figure of £47.7m was based on the hint of placing.

Stodgy88, I have declared that am a small business owner contracted to send 50,000 parcels in a 12 month period.

The change set by RMG was several years ago with pricing in proportion. It coincided with a rationalisation in delivery offices and extension to sorting offices. Changes were extended with a failed rollout of 2d barcodes some 4 years ago but a total redesign of their website for barcode labelling to be reality and a requirement. This barcode system is working well.

This will have led to sorting and delivery offices requiring complete upgrades to systems and, with barcode tracking in place so can begin to make additional revenues. Putting this is terms of hard cash, the system I use is based on an average weight not exceeding 1 kg and a choice of 24 or 48 hour delivery. For a few extra pennies, parcels can be tracked from the point of introduction at a sorting office and traced to destination. An extra charge is made for packages returned to us if tracked but not if simply using the 24 or 48 hour service.

And while it is a bit of a bind to cope with a few sacks of returned items by the local postie, each item is bonus revenue. Now, the issue that I have with RMG is first the failure to ensure driver safety, particularly on rural roads in winter. Vans SHOULD be fitted with winter tyres to cope with ice, snow and slush but they are not. Secondly that our account manager based in the opposite side of the country has no ide of the distances in Mid Wales. The nearest set of traffic lights is 22 miles away, roundabout is 19 miles away and dual carriageway 27 miles. It is a section of 300 metres so don’t get carried away! Postmen and women do a fantastic job, suffer with shift patterns, deal with a vast range of items and services.

The business is a decent investment case now from the results published. It was not a compelling case for that before Covid 19.

Short term pressure in Europe remain. I fear we have a difficult week ahead with Austria in lockdown, Germany likely to follow and potentially adding to a strengthening pound with a weakening Euro. We also have the Bank of England dithering over interest rates that have kicked the can down the road until next month……

I remain bullish with metals but am not a fan of averaging down, preferring to buy in a rising trend and averaging up. I did though buy shares last week in HILS, RMG and AFC. Remain exasperated with MTU, RFX, TSTL and APF.

FWIW, although I doubled up my holding in ELEKTA in July, the share price remains depressed. Not sure why so out of favour but capital growth is rarely achieved overnight.

OliGarch, if it is of any consolation, a lorry arrives with us from Swansea once each week - it is a 3 hour journey each way - and we have a daily van collection that comes in from Llandrindod Wells (23 miles away). The next nearest sorting office is either Ludlow (24 miles but in a different country) or Hereford (32 miles, ditto).

I have no idea if TA is of interest to shareholders, but the 50 day MA was crossed yesterday and the SP is still under the 200 day MA. Might just see a Golden Cross in the New Year. Prefer using fundamental analysis over charts, though.

Here we are, roughly 6 months further on and the SP remains in its northbound trendline. Sure, there was a big dip in September, but the SP should recover and test new highs. After all a tenner a share is quite a big psychological barrier for those of us holding from almost 10 years ago.

I would prefer to add once 1000 has been broken and held for a few weeks.

I do not mean to dampen enthusiasm, especially on a day when I have bought shares in this company, but with news it allows analysts to dust off their slide rules and prepare notes from the "back office" to present to their clients. It also allows the amateur day trading fraternity to make a few shekels, take their profits and bung proceeds on the next punt.

FWIW, I am expecting the price to stabilise tomorrow, perhaps fall back quite a bit before the "front room" staff have confirmed orders from their clients (fund managers) that will begin to map out the future direction for the share price.

Now this does not always happen - and I write this with the benefit of having "three hats" - the first is as a HNW investor where decisions are made on my behalf (and in those accounts I do not own shares in this company), as the manager of the pension scheme for my company that controls the funds for its small workforce (company is in 14th year) but also as the manager of the ISA, LISA and SIPP accounts for my children. Shares today were bought in an ISA.

The broad psyche is to target capital growth with the risk set at high. Dividends are unimportant but purchases tend to be limited to around 8 per year with fewer than that for disposals. I admit preferring to buy in a rising trend and don't really care about the timing of entry. I do care that my level of investment is pretty consistent for each holding. Most of the time it means that I need to average up, but occasionally averaging down is required - that is certainly the case with Rio Tinto Zinc that I dipped a toe into beginning in March this year.

RMG has plenty of room to eliminate the slack and waste, especially in the management of small business accounts There are also major problems with employee retention and industrial relations at ground root level and this is not helped with the pandemic that has been both a driver and a hindrance to revenues for the last 20 months.

I feel that the worst is definitely behind us, that for the UK the pandemic is approaching the point where nationally it is over but there are pockets with flareups that will take a week or so to be contained. An advantage that RMG has is that it can draw on staff from neighbouring regions to cope with any containment so staff rationalisation will be based more on natural wastage rather than mass redundancy.

Sorry to write drivel in volume, but this is the musing of an old bloke that is not really interested in daily writhings or price movement.

Carmonator, although the US infrastructure bill requires steel in many different guises, the immediate beneficiaries will be earth moving machines (Caterpillar) followed by aggregates (Holcim is my preferred holding), steel and copper. The need for metals is a good 4 months or two behind the groundwork side of things which is why I am not in a particular hurry to add to my holding.

My order has not been filled this week. Admittedly it was at a cheeky level and may get filled tomorrow.

FWIW, I don't give a hoot about the dividend element. Besides, these are never assured and at present level is unsustainable. Either the dividend will be halved, the share price will rise or both. I am expecting substantial uplift in share price, but as US approaches winter, and it could be a hard one if El Nina hoves into view, I do not expect much in the way of infrastructure start until March (except, of course, on paper).

Could be wrong, frequently am, but never frightened to admit my mistakes.

As a small business owner, I am a harsh critic of Royal Mail with changes that are imposed on all companies regardless of size and usually with little warning. However, the rollout of technology of scanned and tracked services has been extremely good and the benefit from this investment is starting to translate to increased profit.

Mine is a tiny company that contracted to send no fewer than 50,000 parcels with RMG over 12 months and will be reviewed next June. So, I have dipped a toe in today with a modest purchase and will continue to add as finances permit over the next few weeks. Although any cash thrown off by way of dividend is a bonus, I seek capital growth. The financial statement today, along with the share buyback program should see a re-rating for the company and significant rise in the markt cap over the next 12-18 months.

Last trading update was on 20 May. The half year last year was on 18 November so I guess it will be this week, perhaps even tomorrow.

With news, we can all get our slide rules out.