Member Info for Alas_Smith

As you probably know, Mongolia has an economy in herding and agriculture, but it has extensive deposits of Copper, Gold, Tin, Iron, Zinc, Tungsten, Molybdenum, Coal, Fluorspar and Uranium. Although it borders China and Russia, China is its main customer accounting for 80% of its resources. Switzerland over 8% and UK almost 4%. It imports mainly from Russia refined fuels.

Have aded a few more shares today on current weakness.

Time will determine the folly or wisdom in my decision.

Fitch reports that Evergrande has defaulted on debt interest that had been deferred. Always the chance of collaterol damage when the prospect for business, however far removed, weaken

Despite the muted reaction, my hunch is that this is now an attractive takeover proposition.

With the prospect that not only is at least one European country in lockdown (Austria) and others that are clamping down on the un-vaccinated (Germany, Cz Republic and Grece) and plenty that are advocating a return to working from home (Ireland, Belgium), suggests to me that there are going to be continued demand for cardboard. Add into the mix New Year bargains and winter only just beginning there should be no reduction in volume for many months.

Analysts consider all the information known about companies in the sector. From this, opinion can be compared on a snapshot moment where the liklihood of analyst proposed future is presented. In this case, the opinion (of the broker firm) was the note issued to its clients.

The opinion from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs tend to carry more weight than UBS or Barclays and, for SYNT, the downgrade is pronounced. The company, as far as I am concerned is little changed from when my purchase was made back in June.

I have dipped a toe in today with a buy for my elder son in his ISA. there is going to be focus on China with the Winter Olympics in Feb and, as China should overtake USA in terms of economic powerhouse it seems a good point to start to accumulate some shares in this IT for capital growth.

The shares to which you refer applied to many senior managers as part of their earnings package and fheir disposal in the market was to fund the tax that was due for the receipt of the shares.

There is nothing sinister about this, IMO, though it could be argued that it does seem odd not to better plan for likeky events, the obvious being death and taxes

The share chart for RIO when compared with GLEN has marked difference between short and long term. Currently short term GLEN (12 month) is outperforming RIO by a wide margin, but long term (5 to 10 years) RIO has fared much better.

With the weak share price not only in comparison with peers, but also against the market, its value in my portfolio is eroding, so although there is argument to again add to holding, the southbound trend on the medium term chart (12 months) seems to be flattenning out but new direction yet to present.

Probably a good time to add, but remain reluctant

My understanding is that IRR represents the internal rate of return. 87% is the return each year that the investment provided or £3m. The return is thus 9 x initial investment plus the increase of 87% annually on the internal return. In essence represents a 9 bagger in 3 years.

Few investors have a 9 bagger ever, let alone in a short time

It seems that Aberdeen (or whatever the new ridiculous spelling is) has bought Interactive Investor fo £1.5bn.

r1234 - thanks

FWIW, the changes that I made to my portfolio in June were to strengthen my exposure to AI and in particular medical research. So it is companies like Elekta, Thermo Fisher and Nvidia. My younger son began his medical career last year working as a junior doctor on the Covid wards. Pretty harrowing to write up to 5 death certificates per shift at the height of the 1st wave. I note the point of the unvaccinated potentially being cautious.

I think you will find that it is the Market Makers setting up their stalls. Have found that the first and last 20 minutes is very volatile before a pattern sets in and the prices stabilise

It is pretty ripe for you to be critical ".... I won’t confuse you redceo I know you struggle to understand the concept of a business being a fluid entity that can change over time..." since by your own admission you are "...someone with no background in markets or in finance...."

For the most part you have confined your commentary to RMG - as have I. And although I could, I suppose, trawl through all your published content to learn why you have such interest in RMG, I have made a small investment for elder son based on MY reading of the recent half year report. At the moment that investment is up 1.61% after dealing costs and has struggled to remain above the 200day MA. Much of the recent posts seem to be from employees obsessed with Christmas deliveries. And while that may provide a few extra shekels in the pocket for those at the sharp end, in isolation it is a headache for the managers and provides no meaningful information on which to draw for investment decision.

Had the talk been of say reform to working practice, redundancies, variance to business delivery etc, the reorganisation that gave us pricing in proportion then that would be useful, but worrying about whether any post was delivered on Christmas Day is quite irrelevent.

My timing of entry has never been perfect . But, in financial parlance, my word is my bond. You will perhaps be relieved that I do not intend to contribute to the RMG board again.

Good fortune to all.

At the risk of being slated as an extremist, I have no problem whatsoever in mandating vaccination for all so that the liberties which we have been accustomed to enjoying return unfettered. Sure, there are going to be isolated instances where the underlying chemistry results in unwelcome side effect, including deaths, but thus far, all the licenced vaccines are well tolerated and are being tweaked to cope with mutation. It is also possible that new adjuvants will be introduced either to produce new vaccines or altering current ones.

It does seem strange that vaccines that had rid the world of smallpox and have controlled many diseases for decades are being resisted by a vociferous minority where the oxygen of publicity results in contagion.

Anyway, that aside, I am hopeful that the few remaining days until the end of 2021 are un-eventful. I am confident that my restructuring of my portfolio in June this year will benefit me in 2022. I've had a slightly better than average year this year with growth of 14.94% for the 11 months and expect to pass 16% if there is a "santa rally".

I may drip a little more money into RIO, (it represents 1.6% portfolio) but I would be reluctant to take it over the 2% mark until there was a clearly defined upward trend in the charts. Short term (12 months) there is likely to be stronger growth in smaller companies. Dividends may become more imoprtant but capital growth has been my focus for decades and I see no compelling need to change strategy.

Calm down.

Since fund managers move markets, it is they that determine broad price direction. Fund under active management need to place bargains on the buy and sell side for liquidity, balance and profit. Pension funds also need to move money around so that assets under management generate cash to pay out the annuities that have been guaranteed. That we may all have the same information at the same time does not mean that we are all going to reach the same conclusion.

The advantage that forums such as this are in the exchange of information and to benefit understanding. It helps in making better decisions in times ahead. We may disagree on this, but while I will be filtering mhudson as having nothing really useful to share, you are a valuable resource to benefit all. Incidentally, if you have evidence for collusion, then it should be drawn to the attention of the Financial Conduct Authority and to the Head of Compliance in both RMG and UBS.

Bo77ock7, I am a long term holder of shares and am rather underwater at the moment with my holding in IBST were I to crystalise things today. I have never been very good with my timing of entry but have broad shoulders to weather market movement. My portfolio as a whole has (on paper) grown 16.88% this year despite the drag from Ibstock (and a few others!)

FWIW, there seem to be 2 distinct aspects for this latest variant in reports that are starting to emerge. The first is that it appears rather better at spreading than the Delta variant and second that the symptoms are mild. What is not known (yet) is its mortality rate. I am pretty sure that the current range of vaccines will prevent serious illness.

mhudson - forgive me if I seem impertinent, but I really cannot see how you have arrived at the conclusion that the share price has been manipulated. What evidence have you to support your contention?

Broker opinion not only changes but needs context. UBS in common with say Goldman Sachs, Barclays or any of the larger Banks have teams of backroom staff that look at the information for ALL the companies in the same sector not just those in the UK, but on all the major markets. This means that RMG is being compared with DHL and UPS and FedEx and all the others out there. So a hold for RMG might be made in the same breath as a buy for DHL and a sell for DX group. The buy in place now, may have changed the opinion for others.

For anyone managing their own portfolio, there are disclaimers that share prices rise and fall, that it is important to undertake your own research and all the other caveats.

Selfishly, my portfolio and that for my wife are managed on a discretionary basis. I look after the portfolios for my children that include ISA and SIPP accounts as well as the SIPP accounts for self and my wife. I also manage the pension fund for my company. Those that are professionally managed are very substantial in terms of capital invested and we pay handsomely for the privilege not just in terms of dealing charges but also a quarterly holding charge. The holding for RMG is in ISA wrapper for elder son. His portfolio is structured for Capital Growth with risk at HIGH.

Broker opinion can and does change. Opinion published 2 months ago was reliant on information at the time. There has been new information published only days ago which has altered opinion. It has absolutely nothing whatever to do with short selling.