Member Info for Alas_Smith

Not the story that my box man is giving me.

I work in promotional fulfilment and order around 100,000 bespoke boxes annually. 6 months ago, the lead time to obtain board was 3 months, before Christmas it was down to 3 weeks it is currently down to 48 hours.

Although there is sufficient work for our box company, they are no longer working overtime. Sure, costs are higher, but these are passed on directly. Has all the hallmarks of recession later in the year as wages begin to rise to cope with the increase in cost of living. Good news for my business but pretty rotten for most others.

The principal advantage that Scrip has for the company is to preserve cash. The advantage for a younger investor means more shares that in time may have greater capital appreciation or, if converted into cash dividends more cash.

The principal disadvantage for shareholders are either a static or falling share price.

FWIW, I always take dividends as cash so that it allows me to make the choice of when and where it should be invested.

If you had entitlement to between 9.0 and 9.9 shares, you would receive 9 shares with any excess in cash

Tom, whether you like it or not, diplomacy is the answer in the short term to bring hostilities to a close. It rather seems as if Putin has made hopeless errors and sanctions are bringing things to really hurt ordinary Russians and it is up to them to throw out their rotten masters. I do not sense any lifting of sanctions in the short term (6 months).

Thronegames, with the reduction in hostilities, it eases the sense of worry for oil tankers. Europe is committed to its reduction of reliance on hydrocarbons in favour of electrification. The stone age did not end through lack of stone.

A worry that faces UK, Europe and US is recession. War in Ukraine has altered the focus but even with the glimmer of good news, reality kicks in as it always does.

Stop exaggerating. A move of a few pennies is hardly a "collapse" in the share price.

With news emerging that Russia is to scale back its assault on Kiev and peace talks in progress, there is a flight to equities that are likely to rise substantially on the back of this news. As America will open soon, money is moving accross the pond.

Well, that is my take on things.

It does seem odd that a BB where readers should expect to read of the prospects for the instrument to which it refers instead is punctuated with the musings of punters engaged in war in the Balkans.

We learn today the the "first phase of the war is over" as far as Russia is concerned. In other words, it has failed to achieve its original objective (to annex Ukraine) and is looking to consolidate its position with a troubled eastern flank that has political sympathy with Russia.

Hopefully this will see a marked reduction in the senseless bombings and negotiators will broker peace in advance of political settlement. I doubt that sanctions will be lifted in the short term and might remain for a year or two. It is a humbling moment for Russia and one that Europe will wish to be enforced for the remaining term of Mr Putins regime.

Without oil, the world does grind to a halt. There is an 8 year window for the infrastructure to be in place for electrification of most new builds whether it is construction, motor or industry. I've been putting my money into battery makers and alternative small scale power generation.

All that aside, cardboard boxes will still be needed whether there is a war or not. Besides, in time, I guess that for those rare times when cardboard cannot be recycled to premium or even 2nd grade product, I can see the benefit for final use as incinerated product for power generation.

I sense that the worst is behind us (for markets).

FWIW, I did not buy yesterday, or today and doubt if I will buy tomorrow either. I am simply trying now to understand why the market cap is what it is now, how the prospects have changed so much and whether to dispose of my holding and put the proceeds to use elsewhere.

In isolation the marldown has been pronounced, but in the overall scheme of things no biggie

At the moment, Putin has little option other than to continue to bomb. He is, after all, a bully. What is needed is a couple of options to allow the war to end and some sort of face saving plan in place.

Were the use of chemical weapons deployed, weather has a nasty habit that could cause contagion. Increase in NATO troops to strengthen borders may, if substantial enough, be sufficient to determine the futility and madness of continued engagement.

If India and China sense that Russia cannot “win” and that sanctions are unlikely to be lifted in the medium term (2 years), they could bring additional pressure to bear, especially if there is potential impact on their economies.

Although there may be a little turbulence in the next couple of weeks, I believe that the market has seen a base. This is not to suggest that individual equities might not fall, but in the main the broad indices are recovering.

For myself, these last 10 weeks have undone all the growth from 2021, a drop of 20%.... As we approach the end of a financial year, I tend to preserve cash so that in April any losses are crystalised and the maximum is transferred to ISA wrapper. This is the last year for such transfer in the absence of any inheritance. Quite a good feeling.

Ahha, although we may not be from the same cloth, our choice of street for tailoring, at least, is shared in common. My first investment was made in 1976 in Shell, and, although I still hold a few shares in Shell it is a negligible entry in my portfolio.

Since 1976, investors have witnessed many recessions, numerous shocks that include Black Monday, Dot Com bubble, Sub-Prime lending that led to 2008 banking crisis, Trump trade war, Brexit, as well as Covid and now the potential for WW3 with a mad Russian in 2nd place in the dick swinging contest vs a comedy actor drawing from Stanislavski for current role.

The last quarters of 2021 had a battle between growth and value that ended in a draw. Value seems to be winning this year, but by winning, I mean not losing as much. RIO is a value holding. The market capital rises and falls on sentiment. In the same way, that old governments are voted out, I don't think that the world is quite ready to rule out growth, but value is where the fewest loses are likely in the short term.

Sadly, I am fully invested at the moment. In just 3 weeks time, I can move the final balances on holdings outside ISA wrapper and can concentrate my remaining years in employment to SIPP's. I currently have just 2 financial worries, mitigating IHT as I am at the threshold for penalty and cannot afford to make larger gifts to the IHT vehicles in place and the prospect of receiving a more substantial inheritance from surviving parent that seems immortal with no evidence of aging whatsoever!

Well, until you sell your holding, alamo55, there is simply a paper change in wealth. I liken global companies such as RIO as a giant supertanker where neither direction nor speed change are possible except through very advance notice. Advancement in the share price has broad direction, though is slowed in heavy seas. Hence the pitch and yaw we evidence in this unsettling time.

Broker opinion is valid but whatever price target is given it is as a consequence of the research teams doing their best in the background based on information that is up to date for a snapshot in time.

Not many predicted the invasion of Ukraine. Markets are dispassionate and though investors are in for a rough time and no immediate prospect for an end, I have generally found it better to accept wild swings as part of the "game". Few complain if markets shoot up 20% but get awfully worked up when down 20%.

As I am not reliant (yet) on my savings, happy to take things as they come and remain invested.

With a holiday under my belt I have returned home bronzed and refreshed and although market turbulence has been grim for investors, old hands know that the market is impassionate and has always recovered to be stronger a year or so later. Sure there is a current deep financial shock through the atrocities being committed by Putin but the meausures in place by Governments over the world are intended to have his "comrades" protesting a conclusion of things so that their lifestyle returns to levels to which thye are accusomed. And, although they may have pretty substantial cash holdings in their homes, it will not last very long.

I began to drip cash back into the markets yesterday, though not into RIO primariliy into my holdings that are most impacted by oil such as EasyJet and AFC Energy as renewables will take over from oil in time. Todays fall back is, of course mostly due to the generous dividend. I feel that the price had begun to run away, but I don't forecast a collapse in the short (12 months) term for demand.

Sadly, I do not believe it unreasonable to suggest that the next couple of weeks are likely to be turbulent for investors through uncertainty with Ukraine. Of course it is preferable that a political solution is negotiated, but as China seems to be allied with Russian interests and Europe has rather alienated Turkey, any brokered peace may simply delay the inevitable.

Investors prefer certainty but with Europe in a poor negotiating position economically and militarily and a willing market for Russian oil and gas to flow to China, I am not sure that threatening the NordStream pipelines 1 and 2 will worry Mr Putin too much. Rather, that it plays into his strength.

Frankly, I am surprised that he has not been tougher in his negotiating power to restrict supply to Europe, curry favour with ****stan and gain more support that potentially could disrupt India. Anyway, I'm off skiing for 3 weeks and have no intention of opening a browser.

Have I read this correctly that Kenyon has sold 250,000 shares awarded under a scheme setup in 2017? I cannot immediately find a note on the details of the award, but this might give rise to an overhang as volume is not exactly brisk at the moment.

Hasn't negatively affected the SP.

I note today that Midas Group Ltd, a property company has filed for bankruptcy protection with some 300 employees losing their jobs. More misery in store for businesses, particularly zombie companies.

With the NAV in a tight range, ability for the managers to issue new shares at a substantial premium and an increased dividend return, it remains attractive as a growth stock.

At least denby69 has had the decency to note that has sold, and, let's face it, there could be any number of reasons for selling - off the top of my head these include, better investment opportunities, changed opinion, re-balancing portfolio, cutting losers and strengthening winners, needing cash.

Historically markets have risen and there is no reason to believe that this will change. January started off so well, but descended into correction territory and Feb is not actually much better. Negatively, we have inflation, Ukraine stand-off and SARS-CoV-2 that is not yet in endemic stage. On the positive side we have high vaccine rollout which is allowing economies and countries to re-open albeit with caution. Headwinds remain such as January 6 riots investigation, Mid-term elections drawing closer in America, new budget in India and rising interest rates.

Although these may not impact ABC directly, the mood is for caution to be executed and thus markets are prone to exaggerated swings. Volatility provides opportunity, though I prefer stability.

For those that may be interested, there is an article in todays IC in the IDEAS section. Broadly, it looks at the performance of Joel Greenblatt with his top 10 shares (and this varies each year) that have out performed other indicators. It also charts top 15, 20 and 30 against FTSE.

SYNT is ranked 5 this year but did not feature in last years list.

For my own portfolio performance, I measure against FTSE too.

Sorry to take things off topic…. ASML has basically the monopoly for ALL technology advance. The company expects to see uplift in revenue of 20% against 2021 numbers. A work around is in place for its “pot boiler” machine, but there will be impact on its cutting edge machine.

Intel, Samsung and TSMC are customers and for their businesses to remain at the forefront of computing excellence the market for ASML is assured for decades. Of course, there will probably be penalty for any delay, but it is not as if their customers can buy alternative machines from other manufacturers as there are none. The barrier for competition is so immense that it can be dismissed.

I see no compelling reason to dispose of my holding though there may be further short term pain for shareholders. As the damage is largely contamination from smoke, it is quite possible that whatever was in production will need to be scrapped, the air filtration system renewed and new machinery commissioned. Any bargain executed now has additional risk. The shares are priced at under $700 each and have dipped below the 200 day MA. A dangerous opportunity as the saying goes.