Member Info for Alas_Smith

Phyl, I know it is disheartening to see the constant erosion of share prices, but (and I might have said it before on this board) 2022 has been a harsh year for investors. The peak was November 2021 and although there were mutterings of rising inflation, the world was not prepared for events that hove into hideous view in just a few weeks.

We have the remnants of Covid 19, China that has not really made its mind up whether to consolidate or expand infrastructure and Mr Putin launching an invasion of Ukraine. With whopping rises in fuel to further ginger up inflation, Banks have reacted with rising interest rates.

We are in the middle of a bear market and although Governments are using every weasel tactic they can to avoid admitting that domestic ecomonies are in recession, there is little doubt in my mind that there is not much in the way of good news to tip the balance away from bad news. Once markets have re-gained their poise, then that is the time to consider dealing in equities again. There are a huge number of Investment Trusts that are trading at a substantial discount to the underlying assets right now, but picking thepoint of entry is difficult.

Bear markets tend to be of short duration (10 months as an average) and severe. Markets are also forward looking and we have earnings season with us for the next 6-8 weeks to consider what the prospects for equities hold for the major markets. Trying to time the point at which to start to introduce new cash is folly IMO. Trying to find the best holdings at great prices is the key.

MTU and its european sister MTE have great holdings, though the share price for each suggests we are heading to hell in a handcart. Give it a couple of years and we will all wonder what the fuss has been about and why we made or did not make decisions.

Not necessarily. An investor building their portfolio SHOULD commit investment. If it is their first bargain, then it represents 100% less any cash. If however, the investor has sold everything else and has crystalised losses from highly speculative pints then the 90% represents the sanity in their portfolio.

Context permits change of opinion. I don’t really care about daily movememt in share prices, but I maintain my diary of portfolio values. No evidence in my portfolio of a bottom, but there was no eivdence in November that it had peaked until April.

Markets like certainty. Confirmation of recession is likely to be taken as good news as it is a certainty based on projected analysis. Interest rate rises that confirm opinion are similarly good news. Broadly, market rise, have done so for centuries and I fully expect the market to be higher in 5 years than today……… but, by how much?

NikeS02, FWIW, I am not worried about the "froth" of markets. Whether they are rising or falling, any day to day change in the share price is reflective of broad sentiment and unless accompanied with REAL news such as mergers/disposals financial update is simply market forces.

Whether we like it or not, the world population is growing and the barrier to entry for any listed business to start is high; for the same business to grow is best made through acquisition. That the Nat West managers in the past made poor decisions requiring a public bail out and a remaining colossal public stake draws a VERY thick bottom line under the market cap for NWG.

The stake owned by HMG is likely to be gradually reduced over the net decade.

I cannot name a do-decade - a 20 year period - (no matter where the start is determined) where the FTSE closes lower than its start. 2022 has been brutal for me and I expect many other investors. it is part of the game. I am expecting 2 inheritances in the next year consequent on the death of close family in the last month. One is likely to be trivial and the other substantive. Seems to me that there is never a good point to invest but always a terrible time to sell.

Currently sitting on 1.5% cash (down from 3%). The smaller inheritance will boost cash to 1.8% and the larger to 40% cash. I have plans to gift some of this directly to my children and the balance to be invested at the discretion of my broker.

This will be my final contribution to this board. Benefit from investment is only made at the point of sale. Good fortune to all but try and leave a little for the next investor.

For those that place ANY credence whatsoever in "cyptocurrencies", I tend to filter. Bottom line is that it serves no useful purpose other than to discover the solution to a mathematical problem of a particular design. That the underlying function has no relevance to any meaningful solution allows anyone with a functioning brain to dismiss "crypto" currencies as froth

I have returned from a week of fishing in Scotland. It provided opportunity to meet with friends as we do each year and have done on the same river in the same week for the last 40 or so years. One of the party is having difficulty with the paperwork of a large chunk of RTZ shares that were gifted to his father and an aunt some 35 years ago from a relative in Australia. In short, the dividends generate £40,000 annually to a trust that was dissolved on grandfathers death 20% to Aus and 80% UK. The Australian side does not trust anyone or anything that they have either never met or understand and refuse to sing the correct papers.

All in all, it is frightfully funny because the shares cannot actually be sold by either side without the correct paperwork and the dividends are such that selling the shares would expose the beneficiaries (if the paper work were sorted out) to a massive CGT bill. The holding cannot be sheltered and serves only to enrich governments through punitive IHT tax rates.

Looks as if my broker has resumed my broad desire to be fully invested as a dealing note has been sent to me for a bargain executed in my ISA. The ISA for self and separate one for wife are managed on a discretionary basis. I doubt I will add anything to further intelligence but most equities in portfolio tend to be held for an average 3 years, though some for much longer, of course.

Sadly, I have been building my portfolio since the late ‘70’s so have seen strikes, inflation, boom, bust many changes of Government and all the day to day nuance that affect share prices. And I have to admit that every decision I made when I did, was, as far as I could detemine, correct.

Of course, the truth is seldom the reality. I bought shares in complete dogs and dismissed buying shares in others that had stratospheric rises. But, for the most part i got things more right than wrong to the tune of compound growth of 13.5% annually. This year, though I am off nearly 26% so it has written off all the gains of last year.

This article caught my eye as I rwpeaumed dripping money back in to the markets this week. I am not a client of theirs, manage the SIPPs for self, wife and children and small dealing accounts for self alomg with ISAs for children. The only reason I retain some management is because the individual amounts do not trigger the minimum my wealth manager charges for discretionary dealing. That manager has looked after mine and my wifes ISA for the last 15 years.

https://www.devere-group.com/2022-mid-year-outlook-where-do-investors-go-from-here

NWG is, I believe the UK banking equity in the FTSE that has the greatest potential for capital gain whencompared with its peers, Barclays and Lloyds. I used to own shares in HSBC, but for the porfolio in which the NWG shares were purchased, NWG had the edge when compared n a side by side basi.

I believe that it is important to give praise where it is due, so a grateful thank you to steph for taking the time and trouble to appraise us with an excellent account of the presentation.

That there were few bargains executed is irrelevent, IMO in the immediate aftermath. It rather indicates to me that those attending the meeting are considering the company with up to date information. Their analysis will present to sales teams within a few hours, perhaps days and may see increase in volume.

Thus far 2022 has been a ghastly year for investors; markets have the hallmark of a little further to fall yet with a recession in prospect in the Autumn. Once all the bad news is priced in, markets can recover their poise and return to growth. The average bear market lasts 10 months but bull markets last far longer.

I remain optimistic and will continue to buy shares in what I expect to be tomorrows winners. GROW was purchased for my elder son. For myself, I bought shares in GSEO yesterday. Not a pump and dump exercise as I tend for myself to excecute just 3 or 4 bargains annually. It was the result of my sale of T44 (long dated index linked gilt) which had been bought as a hedge against inflation 2 years ago, but weirdly proved the opposite. I’m scratching my head as to why, but better to take a hit and seek to recover loss elsewhere.

Broker notes are broadly good but need context. FWIW, information gathered by a single analyst that has the sector under focus will be examined individually in detail; it is gathered over time and will take a few days for the analysts to consider. Much of this is done out of office hours in the peace and quiet of home. The result is then usually passed to the research team to further analyse and consider. Sometimes it is published. It is published to institutional clients first, then client managers and finally to the broad community.

More often than not, this “published” analysis is the greater part of a month out of date. The institutions have either acted on research or have ignored it. So, although the PUBLISHED target is x, the point when it was originally made might have been wildly optimistic as weeks may have passed and the context for analysis is altered.

Tools that brokers use are 80% the same as you and I and the information whice is considered is 100% same. What is different is that brokers can ask questions of companies post information published to clarify information in RNS tha you and I cannot. This clarity eliminates 80% uncertainty for information.

The upshot is mathematically correct. 80% of 100% divided by 80% means that 64% is the outcome. But it does also assume that the questions asked by the analyst had made correct analysis.

This suggests to me that the broker price is another number plucked from the ether based on the majoritiy influence being correct t the time when analysis presented.

in this case, I reckon that the analysis ignore geo-politics and thus is too high

Not sure you are familiar with the long term benefit that share buy backs have.

These are either held in treasury by a company to form part of incentive for employees, can be resold in part or full to institutional investors or market makers at a premium to purchase price or be cancelled to adjust the market capitalisation.

In case you had not noticed, RNS have for THRG dried up on this site despite drawing it to the attention of LSE. More information is found on the London Stock Exchange website.

FWIW, I’d sooner the trust were buying its own shares in a falling market to reduce the effect of leverage. Bull markets last far longer than bear ones.

Dinoken, this information was released a year or so ago. What is your point?

I might not know the ins and outs of banking, mining, energy, renewables or any of the other sectors and companies in which I hold investment for their day to day business but I do know how to read a balance sheet and I am smug enough to weigh up risk and reward with a broad not to geo-political influence.

That I am long with NWG does not mean I ignore those that hold different opinion. That you, I suggest have sold short through the use of a financial trading instrument, are using very old information when markets are forward looking is a sign that YOU are desparate. The average herbert with a few thousand, perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands invested will have no effect whatsoever on the day to day share price in ANY FTSE company, ever.

Hopefully the downside after my purchase yesterday at 16:13 is limited. My portfolio is structured for capital growth on a High Risk basis

I have dipped a toe in for my elder son with a purchase today. It is showing as a sell - bargain executed at 12:53:58.

Although I am sure your contribution is quite valid, I confess that I do not understand it at all.

Um… market capitalisation is a curious value determined by the assets owned, the revenue that is generated by those assets, the profits made from sales from owning assets and the dividends that are paid to shareholders. RIO is pretty cheap when compared with an absolute. The absolute I use is Price : Earnings. This is shortened to the PE Ratio.

Put another way, a PE of 10 means that for a 100% return, the dividends thrown off for 10 years is the cost to owning shares now. The lower the PE, the shorter the time that shares will need to be owned for for the dividends when aggregated to buy each shares and thus break even.

The PE for RIO is currently about 5. The average PE for constituent companies in the FTSE is around 15. RIO represents good value. I will continue to add to my holding until such time as RIO ceases to represent good value.

A few weeks after my last post and the SP has barely moved, yet the broader market has continued to fall. My perpetual optimism for long term outcome remains bullish. However, I think we are only into month 7 of a bear market.

Bear markets tend to last an average of 10 months. I suspect that this bear market will last another 6 moths as there is insufficient good (financial) news anywhere in the world.

The business section in todays issue of Sunday Times has BEG tipped as a BUY. May influence the price next week and tempt some retail customers to dust off their cheque books

Technical Analysis is not really an area where I have much experience but I do note that sometimes quite bullish signals are presented. One such signal is a Golden Cross....... This is where the 50 day and 200 day moving averages are rising and the 50 day MA crosses through the 200 day line.

BEG seems to be in contention to produce this signal during the next few weeks. Anyway, I was happy to buy shares in BEG when I did and find that this is one of the few holdings this year in my portfolio to be in positive territory.

Hopefully it will not be too much longer before news on US licencing is announced.

Yes, I know I tend to drone on a bit but perspective is needed, especially for those that have never witnessed a recession or a serious downturn in markets. Well, 2022 started badly and has got a whole heap worse. There is probably a bit further for markets to fall before the bottom can be called but, for what it is worth, here is my advice as an old timer that began investing in 1979.

Sweat it out.

You know that the equities you hold had at the point of purchase the qualities to provide capital growth. (I ignore those investors that simply buy for income). Well, provided that your reasons to own the shares have not materially changed (despite share price changes), then hang onto them. Some of those equities may even have gained market capital, but most, I wager, will have fallen. The entire market has fallen, not just the UK, but in the US, Canada, China, Australia, Europe etc. There have been no hiding places.

So... what should we do? Well the first thing is not to panic and the second is to try and identify the sectors that are likely to recover first. As you won't (or should not) have exposure to a single sector or a single company, then there is a good chance that one or more of your holdings generate dividends. I've always taken my dividends as cash so that it allows me to invest where I want to apply my money.

I am not fussed about RIO as a minority shareholder; my stake will not move the price but it SHOULD reward me in the long term from the mining super-cycle that I believe we are in currently. The developed world is singing the praise of alternative energy but about 100% of these are still in development so not really for widows and orphans. My money is on recovery in Information technology and medicines, notably those that are from machine learning or artificial intelligence (AI).

Sorry to witter on; 2022 has been a statue year. Bear markets tend to last 10 months as an average so we are at month 7 or perhaps 8. And while "recession" has not been called by the weasel politicians, it most certainly is there and in plain view (again, my opinion). There is another 5 months pain ahead, I feel but I will be dripping capital back in a little ahead of the bottom because the past has a habit of repeating itself.

The history of bear markets is that they are brutal - most with 33% off, a few with 50% off highs and rarely 66% off highs - my hunch is that this will be a "normal" bear market with 33% off. Currently markets are off in the 20% - 25% range% and if they don't bounce strongly from the 30% territory, then there is another 10 months to wait for the 50% range to be cast. Recovery though tends to be VERY swift indeed with around 12 months to re-capture previous highs.

Trust your research. But be thorough in that process.

It is not just this week that has been harsh but 2022 has been very much a "statue" year. My portfolio (in common with most, I suspect) has taken a bit of a thrashing (off 23% as at this morning). But as my enthusiasm for my holdings has not changed, I will sweat things out (as I have done in past recessions in the 1970's, '80's, 90's etc).

My preference to be fully invested at all times has been set aside for this year. Dividends have swelled my cash reserves to 5% but I am not convinced that the market has reached the bottom. Once all the bad news has been fully priced in (the next news is confirmation that the UK is in recession), then and only then (IMO) will the market be able to regain composure.

Past bear markets tend to last about 10 months but the period after that is usually very profitable.