Member Info for Alas_Smith

..... so there are pigeon days and statue days. And your point is what? Minutiae is important to those that trade with some frequency. I don't. I am not really worried whether individual share prices rise or fall. All I am concerned with is that my portfolio beats the market.

And this year has been particularly difficult. I have few winners and plenty of losers. NWG is a winner, as is Begbie Traynor, Ramsdens, Synthoma, RIO and a few others, but overall I am down. Not quite 7 figures but close. Against the market, I have lost this year..... but, it is part of the game.

My average remains at 12.5% since I started so I know that my portfolio will double every 8 years. I console myself, and this seems awfully mercenary and cruel, but application for Probate in the matter of my father has been applied for by the Executors (I am simply one of 3 beneficiaries, the other 2 are Executors). As there is an eye watering IHT bill to pay, despite the best efforts to distribute wealth, through house price inflation, my share will place me with cash that approximates to 300% current portfolio.

This is both attractive (from an investment perspective in a bear market) yet troubling (I need to be much more aggressive in my IHT planning than I am already).

Let me try an articulate this. I am happy with my holding in the banking sector. I would be happy to add to my exposure to this sector with the prospect of rising interest rate. In the late '70's when I bought my first share, the bargain was executed at £1,000. At the point when my exposure rose to £100,000, I engaged a wealth manager on a discretionary basis. That was in 2012.

These days my average bargain is £10,000 and I hold a mix of slightly over 75 equities, a dozen or so Investment Trusts and a 3 tracker funds (different geographies). The transition from £1,000 to £10,000 was very worrying. I have been gradually "upgrading" my portfolio with more international holdings than domestic ones. The transition from bargains executed at £10,000 to £50,000 is going to take a year or two to get my head around so from now on, I will simply concern myself with the equities that I manage for my children in building their ISA holdings (to keep my eye in) and feet grounded. They both feature NWG in their armoury

Notwithstanding that dealing in the shares is suspended, the company remains listed and must comply with the rules of listing. Shareholders retain their rights as shareholders but cannot buy or sell shares in the company. I am neither a shareholder nor customer of DX. (though I was a customer in 2020 and suffered such dreadful performance that nothing would induce me to place further business with the company).

Of course, I wrote to the company (thrice) with my complaint but as I did not have the dignity of reply, I simply never placed a further order with the company. I do hope that the suspension is lifted to allow shareholders a window to recover some money. I do have sympathy with investors in such circumstance having been in a similar situation in the past.

The only advice I can offer is to put whatever you can recover to good use and in time make up losses. There is advantage from a tax perspective, of course but only with holdings that are without wrapper such as ISA or SIPP.

I added a few more for elder son this morning. This time in an ISA. My account and that for my wife are managed on a discretionary basis and, although dealing notes come through once or twice each quarter, these have been sell notes so am sitting on rather more cash than is usual. Sadly, at some point in the next few months, I will be a beneficiary to both a substantial and a minor legacy which, as recession bites is likely to provide interesting buying opportunities.

Expert view gives some flesh on the cause of yesterdays fall (and presumably some of todays)

https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-direct-line-ao-world-frp-advisory-rank-group-and-inspecs/a2395271

Well, the numbers looked pretty OK to me. Sure, the strength of $ vs € put a dampener on things, but I cannot immediatel see provision for currency hedging. Happy to hold and in time, perhaps enjoy the patience from this punt.

Recession is expected to last 5 qtrs. I will review at 3, 6 and 9 month intervals.

I am not a trader, but I have been around a long time. My tentative start in building a portfolio began in 1978, a year before I left University. My portfolio has seen boom, bust, changes of Government, war, recession, pandemic and atrocity such as the Twin Tower terrorist attack.

It has grown in that time to out perform the market, produced more gains than losses and many stock picks that were written off as worthless. Woolworths, Albert Fisher, Marconi, Cenes, Graphene Nanochem, Thomas Cook and many many others.

The UK faces recession once again. A recession which the Bank of England predicted would start in the 3rd qtr of 2022 and last for 5 qtrs. The definition of a recessions starting is 2 qtrs of a contraction in the economy.

What is of interest to and u derstood by investors picking their way through my drivel is that the market is forward looking and my hunch is that at the point when recession is “declared” then that is the time for us to get our cheque books out.

The received opinion is to face 5 qtrs misery according to BofE. But the market discounts this as it is forward looking. The recession started last qtr. BoE expects it to last 5 qtrs, so we thus need to eliminate the last 2 months of the cycle. And that takes is to the Spring of 2024 when it is all over. Markets are forward looking that will have an end 6 months before the “actual end” which takes is to This time in 2024.

The received opinion suggest that the inflation worry will be elimated by Xmas 2024 and thus investors should be fully invested by April 2024. I have a different contention,

Continued at a later date.

Since I owned shares in PRU, certainly measured in decades.... anyway have bunged some cash for elder son to put 200 into a SIPP. There was an interesting write up in the Investors Chronicle last week and, although their tipping record in the past was atrocious, it is much improved these days.

Tipped in The Sunday Times yesterday with the caution that although not recession proof, certainly resistant. Have bunged 1000 into a SIPP for elder son.

Time will determine wisdom or folly.

Spot on, ironknut. As the Bank of England is forecasting recession in final qtr 2022 to last 5 qtrs, I don’t see any compelling reason for the share price to rise. I’ve sold half my holding to bank a small profit.

2022 has been a beastly year for investors, 2023, despite the prospect of recession cannot come soon enough as far as I am concerned. Proceeds chucked at Ramsdens, not the chip shop but the pawnbroker. Time will tell

With the prospect of an "official" recession drawing even closer, interest rates rising and misery for workers, I have bought 1,000 shares today for inclusion in a SIPP wrapper. Although foreign travel for many has been a misery this year which, coupled with the cost of living that is going through the roof, I am sure that the pawnbroking side will thrive. For many, the annual skiing holiday might not happen in 2023 but am pretty sure that the summer one will go ahead as planned.

I took advantage to add another chunk of shares in a SIPP yesterday not for self but for elder son.

I've dipped a toe in today for my elder son with an investment of £1,200 after top slicing a holding that is unlikely to have much resistance to the headwind of recession. Time will determine the folly or wisdom of this decision.

Added a few more today at 14:41 - limited downside and a 34% discount does seem ridiculous despite the hiccough for NVDA yesterday on the NASDAQ

The first few minutes once markets open is never reliable. MM’s are still setting out their stalls to gauage reaction

I've helped myself to shares for my elder son in his SIPP. Nothing to get excited about, just 1300 of them

Tipped in IC as a BUY on Friday. In the past this was the kiss of death for many companies. Their stok picking record has improved considerably in the last 15 years and I am now beginning to pay a little more attention to their buy announcements. Their sell recommendations are often too late, but more as a consequence of the reporting of financial news rather "ordinary RNS" day to day statements that are released.

Read well to me, but the City may have different opinion

Solid and although I like them, the city appears unimpressed

I've been doing a little number crunching while waiting for probate to be granted and actually the past has some pretty good lessons to teach us and one I am happy to share. From my shaky start in 1979 when I dipped a toe in with the surplus from my first salary cheque (I was living at home rent free), I bunged £500 into Shell Transport and Trading.

It doesn't matter what the shares in which I invested were, suffice to say that I picked a lot of lemons (still do for that matter) but even when the stake invested was written off completely my long term average up to 2012 was 12.5%. It is currently from the same period 13.5% but since 2015 has been an average 16.93%. All these figures include any dividend re-invested PLUS the occasional withdrawal of cash to fund a capital purchase.

.This is not intended to blow a trumpet - not my style at all - simply to try and give confidence to remain invested at all times as there will be years when one is down and those when one is up. My measured year is based on 1 Jan to 31 December. I was down in 2015 by over 24% but up in 2016 by 55%. My SIPP has fallen on average over 10% annually since 2012, but there have been 3 years when it has been up by 80% .

I have no doubt whatsoever that my losses this year will be recovered in future years PROVIDED that I maintain discipline to run winners, cut losers and make decisions when there is news to consider.

For RIO, the headwinds are known and obvious - recession, slowdown in China, inflation, war (currently contained) in Europe and energy costs. The upside is that infrastructure need to be (re)built and there is change from oil to electricity so vast amounts of copper is needed along with rare earths etc.

Oddly enough, RIO has copper reserves, coal and iron along with interest in rare earths and all the other things that are needed for future. At some point war will be over or escalated to obliteration, economic migration perhaps from climate change will have rendered a change in food production and economic migration will force governments to harness the opportunity that migration provides. Sure it is going to be painful and need skilled political influence but whether we like it or not, change happens and money is needed for change.

Go where the money is going or at least join with it as there is no point in fighting it. Time provides information that will shape the future.and hindsight, the clarity on decisions made.

I am not too fussed about debt provided that profits generated exceed the interest from debt reduce the capital balance of debt and provide liquidity for expansion. Where managers run out of ideas to expand then surplus cash is returned to shareholders. That is one of the points when I worry about my investment.