Member Info for Alas_Smith

Dipped a toe in today in anticipation of a better year ahead

The contention which I have is that the first qtr of 2023 is going to be pretty turbulent but between April and June, this investor will once again be fully invested and maintaining a HIGH risk strategy. The war between Russia and Ukraine shows little sign of running out of steam BUT the west will know that there is no point in putting Mr Putin into a corner as the consequences could be catastrophic, especially if Ukraine is supported with weaponry that has range beyond its borders.

Mr Putin needs really to call a ceasefire or, if his armies continue to bombard the infrastructure and thus target civilians, my hunch is that there will be efforts made for internal uprising to topple his regime.

Anyway...... Christmas is approaching, the worst of the bear market seems to be behind us now and MTU has the hallmarks of growth again.

jimjam makes the very salient point not to put eggs in one basket. When starting to build a portfolio, charges should be taken into consideration and any investment with a capital purchase under £1,000 is likely to have too great a percentage based on the spread (both transactions) and costs in dealing plus any stamp duty.

And then as savings improve, so it makes sense to add new holdings to the winners and cut the losers so might have say 10 holdings with a capital value of £20,000. Once a portfolio is mature, then no problem with say minimum invested in each holding of £20,000 but spread over different currencies, exchanges, sectors and geographies. It has taken me almost 45 years to build my portfolio during which time I have picked plenty of lemons.

Cannot pretend that from time to time not to worry about price falls. I have at least disciplined myself to accept that a daily movement of 30% is substantial, 20% is important and 10% froth. I get slightly worried with anything other than froth. 2% daily movement is not unusual for my portfolio as there are 78 holdings and exposed to market forces around the world.

So it seemed that today was as good a time as any to add to my holding. Once of the few that added weight this year.

Oh well, 2023 is not too far away. I hope it will be better for everyone.

Markets can remain irrational longer than punters can remain solvent or something similar springs to mind. And although it is disappointing that the share price has dropped (and I am sopping wet from being underwater for most of 2022), at some point markets turn.

Althoughs the press relishes in bad news, the market has priced this in and at the first sniff of better news, markets perk up. I dislike averaging holdings down, so will sweat things out. I am keeping my eyes peeled for better opportunities in case I need to cut my loss on this one and recover ground conceded elsewhere. And as each day passes, so the prospect for an end to the gloom and despair, I hope advances, though the change of a Santa Rally has diminished.

I have placed a limit buy order for a dabble. I prefer to average up and see good long term value.

The delisting, I think happens on 14 December. I have bought another decent tranche of shares today to double my holding. Time will determine the wisdom or folly.

As the Fed has hinted that interest rates will not be as aggressive as in the past with the next rise close to a 0.5% increase, markets have responded positively, particularly the NASDAQ today. And although I am conscious that many retail investors like to believe that their portfolio is diverse, geographic exposure provides depth. Sure, for many AIM can seem a little wild, but compared with the NASDAQ is a lamb.

Fortunately ABC is already listed across the swamp. Perhaps the only real differences seen by holders based in UK (and Europe) will be in dealing times that do not correspond with London and fewer contributions here.

Although I am not in the least qualified to provide advice and certainly would not criticise anothers decision, I will caution others with, I hope, a reasoned and broad response.

The most influential economy in the world is US. The largest companies by MCap are in the US and the dollar is the rate against which every commodity is priced. In other words, just because it is dealt in, based in or trades from USA means that it is a bit more important than all the other exchanges in the World. Sure, London is right up there, so is Paris, Frankfurt, Melbourne and Tokyo but as economies go, US then China, India, Europe etc down the pecking order.

FWIW, my portfolio from 1979 until 2008 was entirely UK specific (I knew nothing else and considered nothing beyond UK shores). Around 60% portfolio is US/China based these days and although down a long way this year (-22.x%), recovery when this bear market is over is likely to be greater than if there was a concentration in a single market.

Good fortune to all. 2023 has more turbulence ahead as I foresee OPEC cutting production to deepen recession for UK. Another thought to consider different geographic sector to place investment deposits.

I believe it is all part and parcel of those funds re-arranging their holdings. As the underlying business is good and the managers excellent, I am not in the least fussed with what is, to all intents and purpose, noise.

With shares only having a single listing once cancelled, my only concern in the short term is in regards to fund managers moving holdings between portfolio’s in their ****nal to bring volatility. Long term should be better and not tarnished with any reputational damage that AIM might have for investors.

Uncle_Doug, dividend has been increased despite the fall in NAV through weak markets.

Very satisfactory news today.

US has better than expected inflation figures and markets yesterday reacted accordingly. 2022 has been a brutal year for many and there was little bad news remaining. In turn, this allows investors to pile into the best bombed out companies for capital growth.

Interest rates are expected to rise by 0.5% by the end of the year, potentially peak at 5% but settle down to 4% or so for the future.

A rising tide lifts etc....

Six months have passed since I last penned anything here - 6 more purchases made by me - no point muttering to myself any longer just to keep this thread alive.

Good luck to all.

Delighted CaptiveMonkey that your purchase was so well timed. Sadly, I think in the last (almost) 45 years that I have spent building my portfolio, I can claim just one transaction that I made that, to all intents and purpose was at the best price. The investment you have made is substantially above my 2% risk for any single transaction but below my 6% limit invested in a single holding.

So, congratulations aside, do you have a target whether it is time or price in mind?

FWIW, I have chucked my holding (fewer than 5,000 shares, recently bought) into my SIPP for IHT planning purposes for capital growth.

Decent buy in todays news by Director.

https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/stock-talk-natwest-is-too-cheap/a2401337?ref=wealth-manager-new-latest-news-test1-list

A reliable source for equities that have been sold short is shorttracker.co.uk but Inspecs Group does not feature.

I think that there is an institution that has decided to sell up and invest the proceeds elsewhere. October broadly allowed markets to regain their composure and interest rises (in America) are not expected to be as aggressive as in the past. A delicate line to tread for the Fed and other central banks.

With the slightest glimmer of good news, share prices react favourably.