Member Info for Alas_Smith

FWIW, I’ve bought some shares in this today to be as fully invested as I can. My purchase is not showing yet. I doubt I will contribute much as infrastructure, like cardboard boxes is dull but necessary.

Well, what a surprise….. a review of the mkt cap vs. NAV

Discount is narrowing but it is lightly traded so movement, I suspect wil be gradual, but sustained. A great comination IMO

In essence it is different sides of the same coin I suppose, though over what timescale is open for debate. I am convinced that i am a long term investor and the psyche I use is that I pay attention to the company and not to the share price, whereas a short term investor will proably have greater heed for the opposite.

I am ready to add more shares to my holding - my small bargain was executed last week and I will be adding to my holding during this week. I am certainly not ready to sell any time soon.

In the short term we have an infrastructure bill passed in USA which will translate to cashflows starting in about 3 months time. Whatever infrastructure is needed, at some point steel is going to be used (as is coal and aggregates and plenty of other things) and to be blunt it is an excellent incentive to buy shares in one of the largest mining companies in the world, and specifically iron ore as it will translate to cash being thrown off.

In the long term, there is limited room for research and development and investment constrained to buying competitor businesses or supplier companies so the result will be to transfer cash to shareholders by way of dividends.

Quite a long piece today in Sunday Times….the Cowie column.

Absolutely spot on MrMath.

I used to hold shares in Lloyds for their domestic exposure and HSBC for international markets but sold the whole lot in the early part of 2019 when the trade war between US and China had kicked off. It is probably a good time to be invested in bank shares, though with the prospect of zombie companies hobbling on through to Christmas before turning up their toes, I felt that companies such as Begbies Traynor and Ramsdens Pawn brokers would be in for capital growth.

Hi Stockready1… stockmarkets have a habit of being cyclical where the average annual return is 7.5%. This average is based on the largest companies by market capital since 1900. Occasionally, markets suffer a downturn by going backwards (once every 10 years or so) and these bear markets tend to last not much more than 18 months.

Usually after a bear market there is a sharp rise at a rate that is substantially above the average return that gradually diminishes over a 4 yr cycle to return to the average. My goal has always been to have a return that is better than the average and it is currently running at 13.5% over 43 years, up from 12.5% which was the return for the first 35 years. Put this down to cutting losers earlier and running winners longer.

For me, 2018 was a poor year, 2019 a spectacular year, oddly although I had a 39% fall in the crash of Feb/March 2020, growth was very strong. As expected, this growth has carried through to 2021, though reducing and is expected to continue in 2022. Again, expected to reduce and return to a long term normal.

Inflation, or rather stagflation is returning to our vocabulary but probably (opinion not fact) will start to impact in 2023, perhaps with a real bite. My choice of T44 index linked gilts will provide some protection in such scenario.

Funds, for me are rather lame. Yes, I have bunged money into several investment trusts, but only to get exposure to markets or sectors where I have limited knowledge or dealing is too awkward. My small bargain was executed in RIO yesterday. I also added to my holding in EZJ. Both underwater, but I prefer to be fully invested and take my chances rather than trying to find the best entry point as there might always be a better one.

FWIW, I have issued instruction to execute a tiny bargain on a small dealing account for myself. It won’t move the price

Very satisfactory to note the price rise today. Buy the rumour and sell the facts rings a bell.

Fintech has served me well for the last few years…. Adyen, Boku and Augmentum are in my portfolio which is structured for growth with risk set to High.

So.. the price continued to fall over the last month or so..... And?...... RIO has not gone bust, the world continues to revolve and the only ones to get excited are news hacks and perhaps that that worry about the present.

Well, Miss Thunberg has got hot under the collar with all the audience that also get hot under the collar, but protesting in Glasgow might have been a little edgy in the 70's but far better to protest in Calcutta, Shanghai or Rangoon.

Whether we like it or not, raw materials are going to be needed for whatever world is around when I have snuffed it and am pushing up the daisies. That global warming will probably benefit Europe with increased food production, it will probably expand the deserts in Africa and drown low lying islands in the Pacific.

Governments need to plan for economic migration far more so than following the path that is consequential on the industrial revolution that began in the 18th Century in coping with the present.

Anyway, my philosophy for the future aside, I have a couple of dividends to put to good use and rather than buy shares and enrich myself, I am buying shares to gift to my younger son, a junior doctor,. He is struggling with pitiful wages, working bloody hard and just keeping his head above water. Oh, and I have also given him my Land Rover so that he can get to work this winter rather than relying on his Mini that was his 18th Birthday present.

So, although RIO has been a poor investment thus far this year and I am underwater, my portfolio is up over 16% this year and set to tip over the 18% mark. Next year will be different, of course. I am expecting greater turbulence in 2022 but growth of 14%, and, based on my portfolio performance over the last 40 years, 2023 may only see a 7% growth but it might just go backwards. I will be prepared to hold more cash than I feel comfortable with for a short time. It might mean investing in Gilts.

It was also in the Sunday Times. FWIW, I suspect that the SP in AUGM will fall as a consequence/

I've been in this game a long time and more often than not, the total opposite happens from expectation. Think of things like an exploration company - the worst thing to happen is that they find whatever they are looking for..... game over.

The NAV has been steadily rising and yet the SP has not budged. Although I appreciate the stability in the SP, a re-rating would not go amiss. Shareholders have a small dividend expected soon which might draw focus on the deepening discount.

I have had no reply to my email. Service has improved so that from a 30% failure to deliver in 24 hours has been reduced to failure to deliver to 28% and that still is hopeless. The final straw was that a consignment containing a case that was packed by me, that held 12 bottles of gin, each had been individually wrapped in bubble, placed on shredded pine for cushioning and in a double insulated box was dropped in a hub. The instruction to return to me was ignored and the contents disposed of has cost DX my account.

Oddly enough, the wine shipper that we use from time to time has also ditched DX. This is not a company to trust - far too much "stock evaporation", inquisitive employees demanding what is contained in sealed anonymous packages sent in bulk and a company to avoid. Our account has been transferred from a local office in Shrewsbury to a hub with a call centre in Leicestershire with an "account manager". I doubt they have any comprehension of geography - the closest dual carriageway from here is 22 miles - the first roundabout is 16 miles and traffic lights (aside from temporary ones) is 21 miles away, All in different counties.

As Mr Dunn either cannot read or is as haughty as a Marquis, there is no point whatever in seeking any reply to email. Best to walk away and take our tiny £70,000 contract with us. It is small beer but our Royal Mail account is that per week. I am at the point where I will block the IP address from DX to prevent their constant spewing of "motivational" junk.

Barnet...... your reference to R-Evil, Barhama, Robbinson and Pears.

Frankly, I have no idea what you are talking about and respectfully suggest that on this point, we are in agreement.

FWIW, I have just returned from seeing my father and having a long chat with him to show off my new car. He was Head of Investment for a stockbroker firm back in the 1970's retired 20 years ago and is now in his early 90's - sharp as a tack and reluctant to grow old - he treated himself to a new car at the point when he no longer had to pay school fees. His was a Porsche 911. I treated myself at a financial milestone. My choice was a Mercedes E in AMG trim. It was a 400 mile round trip.

We touched on investment strategy for the future - the conversation was less than 3 minutes - AI in healthcare to identify cure for Parkinsons is my hunch - his is much more practical with drones and delivery of both weaponry and consumerism.

He , myself, my sister and brother have the same wealth manager for our portfolio - his "protege" when they worked together in the City. the same wealth manager looks after the small trust that I created in 2015 in anticipation of mitigating IHT despite not the recipient of any inheritance.

So, to answer your question on individual equities and funds/Investment Trusts - ATYM, SOLG, JLP and SLPL are (IMO) all in the same boat albeit with relative exposure that is commodity driven (we have family money from roots in Czarnikow in the 1920's) .

Stabbing in the dark now, I infer(and, of course, you do not need to reply) that through your focus in this sector you have a depth and breadth of knowledge that is extremely valuable to others. A sage who knows his onions.

For my own part, I am not a fan of any fund except as exposure to a sector or market. I prefer Investment Trusts which are closed end as a bargain can always be executed - might not like the price, of course. For my own part, I am content to ride the writhings of the market and be fully invested (am currently 0.8% in cash) as the up days outlast the down ones by a country mile. I tend to use aggregated holdings as exposure which I pick over the equities in which I wish to be invested.

No idea if my drivel as comment is beneficial to anyone, but when others provide thoughts to explore, it does alter long term focus as investors should constantly scan for tomorrows winners that can be bought today in their infancy.

.... The future is undoubtledly going to get a whole lot greener so I have concentrated in accumulating shares in AFC Energy, Varta and for good measure shares in ASML, CRDA, Synthoma. Halma has been in my portfolio for years, as has Intertek, Ibstock, Legal and General, 3i, RWS and many others. The world will always need steel, coal, aluminium and copper so RIO will be strenthened as funds permit.

Probably all a bit higgledy piggledy but I am not planning on making any big changes for the next 6 months.

My predictions for 2022 is pretty much the same as 2021 because the world is re-opening for business and leisure. I am targeting growth in my portfolio to be 18.9% next year but it is likely to be very bumpy indeed.

Meandering thoughts as I plan for 2022 written at the point when the latest variant for Covid 19 dubbed Delta-plus is of concern in the UK. This is my review of my portfolio during 2021 - some projections were correct and many have not occured. Some were totally wrong. I had expected uplift this year of 14.94% and am on target to achieve 16.15%.

My predictions were based on emerging from a pandemic and re-adjust to more normal times. I predicted rollout of vaccine from June (pessimistic) and uptake of 90% for those aged 16+ by end of August through the temporary Nightingale hospitals. Mis-information and poor take up has scuppered efforts. I predicted the furlough relief scheme mwould not have been extended and cause a substantial rise in unemployment and many company insolvencies. Zombie companies have all the hallmarks of struggling through to the New year and then curling up their toes. This should benefit my shares in pawnbrokers and insolvency accountants.

I was hopelessly wrong with travel in expectation that through vaccine program domestic travel to Europe would benefit with a proper vaccine passport and rapid screening test at point of arrival from say TTG Electronics. Again, wrong for 2021, but expected to be much stronger in 2022. I'll continue to dribble cash into airlines and cruise industry. I've also strengthened my holdings in utilities in emerging markets (UEM) and bought shares in investment trusts concerned with India, the Pacific Rim and broad exposure to Asia. These include Asian total Return, IGC, AAIF, PHI and TEM. China is going to continue to be a powerhouse for another decade or more so made sense to hang onto holding in Jupiter China bought 9 years ago.

A big surprise was that there has not been resumption of elective surgery to clear the huge backlog would entail to the benefit of holdings in cleanliness. I have doubled up on my holding in Tristel and have maintained my interest in DRDR, Zoetis, illumina, Roche, Thermo Fisher, IShares IV Healthcare, Abcam and a few others. Elekta has been a disapointment. Of course, not all gloom and doom. IT remains in strength and well respresented for me with ATT (actually a 7 bagger), NVDA, ADBE and Polar Capital Global Technology. Consumer discretionary is starting to build (Aubrey, DS Smith etc) and in turn helps companies in the Fintech area such as Adyen, Mastercard, Boku, IShares V Financial Sector, Augmentum and CME. Staples stay in fashion of course - so that takes care of holdings in Nestle, Fevertree and oil runs the world so I have a few shares still with RDSB.

My shares in housebuilders have all been sold in favour ofinvestment trusts targetting smaller companies both UK and EU based - MINI, MTE and MTU along with various "Special Situations" ITs focussing on USA, Pacific Rim and South America. Inflation is of concern so I have T44 gilts........

Goldman, UBS and Berenberg have all provided a downgrade. I did not tune into the presentation yesterday, but report of nervousness will resonate badly with analysts.

My portfolio has (so far) kept its head above water this month in common with Octobers in years past. November may see the start of a Santa rally but my focus now is trying to gauage where the market will have its focus for 2022.

The discount to NAV is getting on for 40% which is madness. Looking at the full portfolio of holdings (annual report around P. 20), nothing seems to be an obvious candidate to raise alarm. The conclusion I draw is that the manager is stale and simply appointing a replacement with the same assets might be enough to address the imbalance.

I accept that it is difficult to polish a t_rd. At least the dividends provide some return.

With the prospect of the Bank of England nudging interest rates up a fraction as early as December coupled with its effect on the “bounce back” loan scheme for the most fragile enterprises, I get the feeling that the smart money has already bought shares in BEG and that the next 12 months should benefit shareholders with a gradual but sustained uplift in the share price.

It seems that broker opinion has a target 170p. Works for me.

Developed nations are, I suggest, resigned to the need to live with Covid 19 for a few more years.

Pacific Rim is the major influence that is growing in response to the re-opening of the major economic areas, N America, Europe and Far East. I am expecting continued interest in this IT. Trading at a premium to NAV is really an endorsement in the managers to grow the trust and reward shareholders through their skilled stock picking approach, though it would be nice if the NAV caught up with the market cap to narrow the premium.