Member Info for Alas_Smith

Wealth was transferred in 2012 to be managed on discretionary basis.
Some holdings retained as poor quality and badly purchased.
Regular savings continued and made at £300 per month - effectively to allow 3 purchases annually - continued to buy RDSB
At some point between 2016 and 2018 around 5,000 shares in RDSB were sold in our ISA

Thronegames, my interest in oil has been soley with Shell, originally as Shell Transport and Trading and nowadays as RDS where I hold the B shares. My ISA account ans that for my wife are managed on a discretionary basis and our entire holding accumulated to the point when decision making was divested was sold in 2016, 2017 or 2018, I don't remember exactly. It was of great disappointment to me at the time, but in hindsight it allowed for restructure, the banking of profits and, dare I say it, brought life back into our portfolio.

There were quite a few holdings that had been disastrous purchases that I did not pass over at the time more from embarrassment than anything else, and gradually sold these to have a reasonable chunk to set up a SIPP which I did. This I continue to manage. I am using the SIPP as another tool for IHT purpose so have no intention of drawing from it. My first purchase was shares in RDSB - I have been accumulating them as the price fell to very attractive levels, the most recent being in May this year. I feel they are rather frothy at the moment and cannot see a compelling reason to add more. I had considered BP but decided that as Shell was familiar to me and I trusted the managers, I'd stay put with the devil I knew well.

Yes, oilers are having a great time - all pretty obvious to you and I as, without oil the world will not function. I did at one time dabble with some oil explorers, but the killer every time was at the point when oil was found, worst thing that could happen and the market lost interest.

So, is timing important or not? Yes and no...... We are both old enough and honest enough to admit that we probably have been lucky whenever we have bought at the bottom or sold at the top. For myself, although I like to be fully invested, sometimes it does pay to use the tools that traders are fond of, charts. I have no idea what a djoi star is or what it implies, but I do like the 50/200 day moving average as an alert. Probably like you, I tend to buy on down days. I also like to sell in a rising trend once my target has been achieved and hopefully leave something for the next man.

We could natter on and on for hours over strategy, but returning to Barnet. He just needs to be patient and learn from those that have been around for a few years. We have seen interest rates rise from 8% to 16% in weeks and fall to be almost inconsequential.

Back to BP/RDSB we might be in for a cold winter so I'm hanging onto my holding and will review in mid January. Historically, a lot of money comes into the markets then and tends to keep prices up, Feb builds on it and March the UK sellers come out in anticipation of April. I'm sure you too will be watching like a hawk for any geo-Political influence.

Please accept my abject and wretched apologies for what has been my temporary comandeering of this board with posts that bear no relevence to RIO.

Barnet, I have run my own businesses for almost my entire working life. That I choose to pay my employees well is the duty of an employer. I am the last person to be paid and only what the company can afford. You might not have read any of the works of the Kapek brothers, but a quote that has served me well is that it is the duty of the rich man to give employment to the poor. For many years I drew no salary and certainly did not maintain full NI contributions.

My business was deliberately scaled back in 2014 and my last employee left in 2019. With the odd exception all keep in touch from time to time with news of their successes and very occasionally seeking a reference. I delight in their success.

My excellent education was consequent on the sacrifices my parents made in sending myself and my siblings to various boarding schools in favour of that provided by the State.

The conclusion that I drew to your propensity to use leverage was based in your low level of literacy, consistent losses, poor or nil research and the inability to learn from history. So, get a grip of yourself, use your enthusiasm for financial markets to your benefit. The greatest counsellor for wisdom is time. Stock markets reward patience so find yourself another 5 equities or Investment Trusts to research and never deal in amounts smaller than £1,000 as the dealing costs are too great a percentage.

Barnet - keep doing the things you are doing and you will maintain another mantra that a fool and their money deserve to be parted. Now, I really don't care if you wish to accept advice as everything that you have written thus far ascribes that you seem to know best. There is nothing that I am doing differently from fund managers, however, what I do not have is the back room staff to provide research that is up to date and the result of actually chatting to the Executive Managers through their Investor presentations, asking questions during the meeting and, more importantly, discovering information on their direct competitors.

You do not seem to have learned anything since 1997 when you claim to have started. Surely, by now you should have discovered that either you are hopeless in your choice of investment or that trying to use leverage when you are already out of your depth (I am guessing that you use CFD or some sort of trading platform) really is not your metier and should be avoided by those who are novice.

In the entire time that I have been investing, not once have I ever sold short. I tried to learn about derivatives and bottled the decision to the point where the option was to be executed. Yes, I know the difference between a call and a put but the minutiae extent to which things can go horribly wrong when coupled with arbitrage would send me stark raving mad within weeks as I would be glued to a screen all day long. And what sort of life is that?

If repeat that you have no strategy whatsoever, seems that you make no attempt to research the company in which you wish to be a shareholder. Do you actually know what RIO does, where it operates, how many people it employs, what taxes it pays, licences owned, what it needs to buy to function, where its headquarters are, the reporting dates, number of shares in issue, who the directors are, non-executive positions held, why the company has grown to the size that it is and all the other very basic questions? I doubt it.

Now, go away, set aside £50 each month into a simple tracker fund and research 10 companies. I am going to suggest 5 to make it really simple and to start you off - Shell, Croda, Legal & General, International Airlines Group and DS Smith. I really don't think I can be much plainer to you than I have been. I am sorry if this is harsh and blunt, but you are neither a trader nor an investor.

As for your comment that financial decisions in ones 60's I almost s******ed. I have a financial problem and having not paid a single penny of CGT through the sensible use of wrappers such as ISA and its predecessors, I have IHT to consider despite not yet inheriting. I am succession planning as there is no point being the richest corpse in the grave yard.

contd.... lose money.

Stockready1, I have declared that my investment approach is pretty well a cliche from the mantra comments that have been honed over generations, but the two that have been of greatest benefit is run winners and cut losers. So, this post (probably more drivel) concerns winners and, partly addresses other comments you generously attributed last night.

A 10 bagger has thus far eluded me, though my father reminds me that his most successful investment was Microvitec that for him was a 17 bagger. I have plenty of baggers in my current portfolio that include Halma, Allianz Technology Trust, Adob, Nvidia, Adyen, CME, Croda, Throgmorton Investment Trust and have a dozen or so others that have fallen back from bagger status last year but should return to bagger status in future times. I do not refer to those companies that I no longer own as either irrelevent or do not feature in my portfolio.

It is important to look to the future and try to have a steer on where people will want to live or spend their money or what is needed for a better world. I feel sure that the approach being taken by Barnet is akin to listening to the loudest voice at the time and forgetting that an empty barrel makes the most sound. His impatience is deservedly (and I am not in the least sorry to make this remark) parting a fool from their cash. Time in the market rewards investors.

Every one of those equities I listed and which are in my portfolio have had down days and up ones and none have risen more than 8% in a single day.

So, lets turn to losers….. well currently I have a few losers in my portfolio, Saga, EasyJet, Ibstock, Elekta and Synthona. There are many others that are barely off the starting blocks, though none seem to be running the wrong way.

My 63rd birthday has recently passed and I have increased my attitude to risk. For many this sounds nonsensical, but my logic is simple. My work provides a small salary that allows me to meet all my expenses, set aside £900 each month for a rainy day, have a comfortable life and go skiing each year in the winter and, in more usual times holiday for a week or so in the summer. When I retire, I might have some State pension, though it is not expected to be greater than 40% of published figures. I will thus be reliant on my savings and this has to last for 30 years or more. A 30 year timescale is sufficient to compensate for such risk approach. Taking no more than 3% capital and continuing to reinvest dividends should see growth for capital over the term proposed and thus provide for inflation.

As you know, compounding is the advantage that time provides. With return of 12.5% annually, capital invested should double every 8 years.

So, for Barnet. You are NOT a trader, do not appear to understand why you are investing and perhaps would be better served in investing in reading material so that you start to understand why the disclaimers on sites providing CFD and trading tools stating that 70%+ l

Not in the least professional. Have picked more winners than losers.

Losers include, but not limited to Marconi, Cenes, Torotrak, Graphene Nanochem, Velocys, Tungsten, Albert Fisher, Claims Direct and many others. At the risk of boring others….

Setting aside £50 each month from 1979 and increasing it when I could was the answer. I saved up for 20 months before I purchased my first holding, Shell Transport and Trading. Dividends were and still are reinvested. The discipline I had then was that the minimum investment is £1,000. Nowadays it is £10,000 per bargain. Mistakes are still made but generally of timing.

No-one gets rich unless profits are taken. Skill in selling is much more important than buying. I tend to sell once the attraction for owning shares has changed, sentiment globally has changed or there is a better nvestment elsewhere. I have sheltered everything in ISA wrapper.

So…. Where has my money been invested? Well, I sold 30% of my holding in Nvidia and placed the proceeds into ASML and Varta. I disposed of my holdings in Bovis and Persimmon to buy shares in RIO and double my holding in Montanaro UK. I’ve also added to my holding in Ibstock.

The world is heading towards renewables, but don’t forget that the stone age did not end for want of stone. This, of course is not investment advice, simply an old bloke who has accumulated quite a lot of money through living like a church mouse and not borrowing any money. I faced foreclosure when interest rates on mortgages rose to 16% or 17%, I forget now and am now concentrating in sheltering what I can to minimise IHT liability. I have yet to inherit, but through house price inflation I am expecting to exceed the £2m threshold in the next 4 years. Thus, I am making gifts to my children via a trust that I established in 2015. I can shelter £325,000 every 7 years and the trust has an allowance equal to the IHT basic allowance.

Phew…. I am sorry to witter on, but it seems to me that you have no strategy whatsoever. So, here is my tip…. Set aside £50 each month in a low cost tracker. Doesn’t matter which, but get into the habit of putting money aside. While that builds up, focus on businesses that you believe have a future, that you understand how they make money. If you can explain to me that bitcoin is anything other than a solution to a mathematical problem that is irrelevant, you probably need to visit a shrink. You might though wish to consider what is needed to “create” the solution. Yep, computer chips. Since the lack of these has caused motor makers supply issue, that was my reason for ASML.

Good luck. Get hold of a copy of “How to Make Your Child a Millionairre”. It is one of the few books worth reading by the Motley Fool before they lost the plot. It is out of print, so scour the 2nd hand book sites

Interesting spike up today. I wonder if there is some news to be released soon, but am speculating, of course.

Mind you there is a dividend to expect in the next week or so which is a welcome bonus.

Barnet, not sure how to put this without sounding patronising ...... but here goes:

Do not confuse investing with trading. Investors usually have a strategy to grow their assets by investing in a range of instruments in domestic and international stock markets. Weightings influence the growth (or decline) in value and it makes sense to add to your winners and ditch your losers. Think of the market as a see-saw, there will be a larger movement based on the weight (or in the case of investment, money) exposed to stock market forces.

Traders on the other hand are interested in the short term and are thus reliant on volatility. 10 minutes might be considered long term for some whereas 5 years for an investor might be short term. Trader claims should be taken with a large handful of salt. Most are small time punters and focus on a single company so do not have a portfolio, merely a pecuniary interest that could be either long or short and oscillate between both. Their is reliant on patterns, volumes and sentiment that ises machine learning to place their bet - for that is all that they appear to be - algorithim based betting under the guise of "investment".

Momentum does play a part - if a company has a share price that is in a defined direction and has been for say 12 months, then there is pretty reasonable chance to expect the trend to continue in the absence of either news or external event. Company fortunes rise and fall and I have no problem in buying shares in a company at or close to its peak.

So, my interest in RIO is two fold - for myself/wife and for the portfolio that I am managing for my elder son. The bulk of my portfolio is managed on a discretionary basis and I simply receive a statement each month to confirm the capital values, stock movement and cash generated. Shares in RIO were purchased for me in April this year. Those for elder son were bought a few days ago. The investment for me is underwater, but for son, well, they are up and running.

Ask yourself some basic questions such as what do you want from your investments (Capital growth, dividend income etc)? What level of risk are you willing to accept? What is your timescale? What is your investment goal? What are you going to do once you have reached that goal?

The goal that I set myself is simply to beat the market. The market has given investors an average 7% return since 1900 so that capital will double every 14 years. My long term average is improving, but there have been years when I have been down a frightening percentage. Since 2015 my returns have been 10.87%, 26.99%, 32.39%, 36.45%, 41.64%, 14.35% and 10.47% for 2021. This year has been a little odd as I have withdrawn some cash to buy a new car last month.

A couple of days ago an investment in WeMatch was made. Not much in terms of cash, but odd not to have triggered a brief statement

If it is of any help, I bought as a hedge against inflation T44 index linked gilts. Yes, the return is terrible, but as inflation rises, so there should be capital appreciation.

There does not seem to be any long term strategy from either US, EU or UK in managing the return to normality following the economic chaos consequent in coping with a pandemic. October can be a trigger month - 1929 Wall Street Crash, 1987 Black Tuesday, 1997 Asian Financial Crash and although Lehmans failed in September 2008, world markets spiralled down throughout October.

The year began with such optimism with a change of Government in USA, approval for vaccine(s) for a coronavirus that has crippled economies and the glimmers of a resumption to our normal lives. Most recently, though the prospect for inflation or worse, stagflation competes with climate change for attention. Media is having a feeding frenzy but sensational news headlines don't provide solution.

Daily movements are pretty meaningless for investors that seek returns over years. I fall into such category and provided that I beat the market, then I am content. My long term average return has gradually improved and is now at 13.65%. This is calculated over the last 42 years.

Bull runs tend to last far longer than bear ones - the bear markets tend to be harsh but seldom last longer than 18 months.

Investors tend not to worry too much about short term price movements - all part and parcel of the nature of markets - but they do tend to have structure to their portfolio. Structure can include exposure to commodities, energy, IT, pharmaceuticals, financials etc and there is a weighting between those that have the potential to grow very quickly and those that are of high quality and are not too impacted in periods of downturn.

Yes, there are headwinds and you have articulated some of them but although past Octobers (for me) have been a flat month, the deepest bear markets kicked off in October - Wall Street Crash 1929, Black Tuesday 1987, Asian Financial Markets 1997 and although Lehman Bros collapsed in September 2008, markets took a dive throughout October.

Bear markets tend to be of relatively short duration, on average 18 months but there are always going to be some companies that do better than others, even though the value of investment might have fallen. The market this year has been torn between value and growth and has a nervousness about day to day business.

The year began with such optimism with a change of Government in USA, approval for vaccine(s) for a coronavirus that has crippled economies and the glimmers of a resumption to our normal lives. Most recently, though the prospect for inflation or worse, stagflation competes with climate change for attention. Media is having a feeding frenzy but sensational news headlines don't provide solution.

RIO is a quality miner and the shares are down a little today. Investing is not a race. Stock markets consistently reward investors over years not days. If holding RIO or any company for that matter is uncomfortable for you, then sell. I am happy to add to my holding even if the price remains weak. I am though beginning to sit on some cash in anticipation of a worsening October.

Unusually, I received a compliment, though quite why I am considered to be anything other than that bald bloke of diminished responsibility is guesswork.

The Pandora Papers are being worked on by journalists all around the world. This article caught my eye https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/rio-tinto-continued-to-trade-with-briber-du-shuanghua/100513014

Bumpy times ahead short term, methinks. Evergrande not helping, US could run out of cash in a fortnight unless debt ceiling adjusted. Although I prefer to be fully invested, sometimes best to take a little money off the table in anticipation of corrections.

Time to average up, methinks.

September has seen 2.6% for me wiped off my wealth (slightly more than forecast). It would have been much more had I not made some changes in preparation for the last qtr of 2021.

I’m sure that the turbulence will be around for the next 18 months as the developed world prepares for inflation, rises in interest rates and company liquidations in the New Year once Xmas is out of the way and commercial landlords able to seek indemnity on debt.

Sometimes the price of an investment trust (IT) is at a premium to NAV and other times at a discount. There are many reasons for premium such as the ability of the managers to pick very well and thus reward shareholders or align to a sector that is in high demand etc.

Conversely, if the managers underperform the market even if the sector is booming or there is uncertainty over the team managing funds, this could have a detrimental effect on the underlying share price even if the same assets are held.

When change in discount or premium is noted, that does provide some hint as to whether investors might wish to increase or decrease their holding.

Selling any holding is often a very difficult decision to make, much more so than buying.

No idea at all, sorry. My guess would be that with the prospect of inflation, new startup businesses tend to put off from opening and in turn financial technology companies which provides vital cashflow for those business tend not to grow. Markets react harshly in bringing the share price for fast growing companies back to have caution which in turn is seen as removing froth even though none might be there.

I have taken the opportunity to bank a 14% uplift from my holding today. September (for me) is usually a cruel month in terms of capital erosion, but short term drops that are unusual and un-explained can provide opportunity. I've taken the opportunity to add to my holdings in ASML (following an eye watering 7%+ fall yesterday) and in Utilico.

Not investment advice, of course, but I have a good direct exposure to IT which has become a little frothy IMO.

Time will determine if this is beneficial.

Added a few more today.