Member Info for Alas_Smith

Of course, the title could be an acronym for parties that I have now filtered.

The UK has got to grips with Covid 19. Vaccine rollout exceeds instances of infection and within a few days quarantine barriers will begin to be lowered. Medically, viruses have to mutate for their own survival - the technical term is passage - each mutation throws an alarm bell to virologists. The advantage (to the virus) of mutation is for continued replication and morbidity (disease) increases The advantage of increased morbidity to those vaccinated (against the original strain) is that the instances of mortality or medical intervention are significantly reduced.

Government announcement is welcome news. News that endorses the likely direction for the share price to track. Of course, most of these small time "traders" rely on technical indicators and will promote whatever they can to "influence" public forum readers to use whatever ammunition they can to force market makers to price the shares so that an orderly market occurs.

I really don't care how much money anyone has in any particular instrument, provided that they are open and honest with their contributions. Goodness know how often I have been aggressive in my support for a company and will ALWAYS listen to those with a different opinion. That lasts until such time as it is crystal clear that an author has an agenda to distort truth. There are several weasels on this thread. There is no point whatever in arguing with an idiot. It is best to use the filter facility and deny the oxygen of publicity.

The share price for listed UK airlines is now in recovery. It is not to suggest that the share price will rise tomorrow, but barriers that restrict passenger movement is lifting and that will translate to an immediate change to the P & L accounts

Interesting to note that the SP advanced shortly after the decision to allow fully vaccinated holidaymakers not to quarantine from Europe or US.

With the Covid rule changes on 16 August "nailed on", it seems that my pessimism for October was cautious and with new news, the picture changes.

So.... what we have seen thus far is that the vaccine rollout continues apace with more vaccines given each day than cases presenting. Hospitalisations are rising, but seem to be mainly restricted to the un-vaccinated. The UK vaccine rollout has been a success and although the virus will continue to mutate, it seems that with each new variant, although it is more viable and thus more transmissable, its deadly effects appear reduced. What we don't know, of course, are the long term effects.

Businesses that have high levels of debt may find that some re-structuring is necessary to cancel debt either by selling off non-core assets or placing parts of the business in liquidation. This will allow companies such as Ramsdens to acquire teams from businesses direct from the Receiver at better prices and thus accellerate any expansion. These might include, of course, retail premises from independent travel agents known for FX, but with small changes to interiors provide appropriate presence for core activity.

And another tranche today. Hopefully once news of licencing in USA is confirmed the share price will advance pretty rapidly.

Strong results with improved margin plus increased dividend payment. What is here not to like?

Warren Buffet in a speech explained how he had become so rich. Dividends when reinvested are the equivalent to Compound interest. He likened it to having a snowball at the top of a hill and there are 2 things that are needed. First is a very long hill and second to keep investing through thick and thin. The long hill is created either by starting early or living for a long time.

And although smaller companies are likely to be the ones for most growth, larger ones should not be dismissed. Investment Trusts maintain exposure to markets and by dripping cash into these, it does allow the gradual build up of capital to make a direct investment in single companies.

Of course, trusts themselves can and do sometimes outshine individual stock picks, hence I have no hesitation in continuing to add to my holding and those for my children through thick and thin.

Although I am sure that TTG does have a PR department, they are not really being as vociferous as they could. About 3 weeks ago, the company had a recruitment drive to hire 100 staff.

https://www.mobihealthnews.com/news/apac/health-startup-medicircle-brings-ai-powered-rapid-covid-19-test-india

Article mentions Virolens as an afterthought so I guess that behind the scenes efforts are being made for non-intrusive testing with rapid results where mass screening is efficient - airports, sports centres, concerts etc. Just a matter of being patient I think. Heartening to see the SP continue to rise.

Shares in airlines and cruise operators are in the limelight again, though it seems that forward bookings are sluggish with consumers booking at the last minute. I remain confident that air travel will return with growing strength from October as a politicians wrestle with vaccine passports and entry requirements for visitors.

I wonder if we begin to see a shift in employment numbers as the furlough scheme unwinds. No idea of the sort of timescale involved to fill the vacancies in some sectors with the surplus from others. As always, the ones bearing the brunt tend to be unskilled or semi skilled and, sadder, young.

Once again there is a portfolio update. All seems well and the shares are in demand. Mr Market likes the numbers, too.

Might draw others into the ring, of course. But could all come to nought. What it has done, though is to draw attention to the company.

Have taken the opportunity to add a few more to a SIPP. Seems a no-brainer not to take advantage of the price drop.

TrekMadone, TTG has many revenue streams. Virolens, if it is rolled out in volume will be very attractive. The SP is advancing as a result of its day to day business.

Thinking aloud, (and this is both opinion and conjecture) so forgive the typos and likely meandering "contribution", there are a few elephants in the room that might be a little distracting. The first is that for the time being the tests (in common use) that are relied on seem to be lateral flow tests, polymerase chain reaction and serology. The second elephant is that the vaccine rollout has extended to more than 60% of the adult population in the UK. The third elephant is that the tipping point for herd immunity is tantalisingly close.

With these in mind, It is not really surprising that the political desire is to begin to remove the impositions to liberty. However, vaccination does not prevent morbidity (rate of disease) but has a marked effect on mortality (death from disease).

I deeply hope that behind the scenes there is a WHO initiative represented at Government level to have a consistent and rapid screening process for international standards for medical approval to travel. So while it might be "offensive" for intrusive tests required prior to departure, it seems very sensible to me for a condition of travel is to provide full vaccination at the point of embarkation and subject to a low invasive test (Virolens for instance) at the point of entry. Candidates can be screened on arrival and marshalled to approved quarantine so that a more invasive test can confirm the result of screening.

This would give confidence to the traveller and although this does seem to smack of martial law, it is a whole lot better than the confused situation for the 4 nations of the UK so a nightmare for countries beyond our borders.

Although the UK has reached the point that seems to be pioneering lowering of guard, the populace of the UK and all those countries that are not on the "green list" are not sufficiently trusted to allow free movement. It will change. As an aside, my grandfather who was a Doctor was involved in setting up the Quarantine Board when he was seconded to the League of Nations. His speciality was tropical disease and much of his work was undertaken in Egypt and Alexandria.

investorinvalue. You do not understand the difference between morbidity and mortality. The morbidity is rising but mortality is falling. If you knew anything about viruses you would know that they mutate for their survival.

Unless there is compelling reason to read any more of your tripe, I shall filter you.

Frankly, I am rapidly reaching the conclusion that there is little pont in commenting further on this board.

Making a bald claim without fleshing it out suggests to me that you are a wannabe trader and have sold short. The UK Government believe that the vaccination program has reached the point where disease is under control and that although there is without any shadow of doubt a 3rd wave beginning, there will be fewer dying as a result of the vaccine program. Thus restrictions are being lifted.

In turn, it means that our drab lives will begin to return to normal, albeit with different social measures in place. In many Easter nations, mask wearing has been quite normal while shopping and certainly international flights. That is probably going to be adopted for many , not through Government legislation but both form a social perspective and from the employers angle in say shopping malls, airports etc.

I don't think I have heard a compelling argument for the share price to fall much further than it did yesterday - a price which I think I mentioned a few times purely from a very amateurish consideration of the charts. I remain optimistic and propose to add to my holding in the weeks and months ahead.

Smithy, stop lying. The company has issued a Regulatory statement. There are severe penalites if the content is false.

You really are testing the patience of those that do read your comments.

People want to fly and countries want to welcome visitors. The lifting of restriction is key. The UK vaccination program has a full 6 week lead over Europe. The catalyst for a resumption of flights at or close to 2019 level is the re-opening of destinations to international passengers.

Smithy, you are wrong. I have a rather better grasp of SARS from my keen interest in such matters. Interest that was sparked with Avian 'flu, SARS 2, MERS and the current variant.

Please do not be quite so dismissive of others, especially those that have spent time in undertaking both research and, if I might be blunt, extending a courtesy to other investors.

So the price is falling.... no biggie. As I mentioned earlier, I am dripping money in with this holding. I am sitting on 3% cash at the moment with my target to be fully invested at all times.

A.smithy, might I be impertinent enough to suggest that you are being very selective in your rollout of facts. Yes, it is true that there were 50,000 cases of Covid reported recently and that the trend for cases is most definitely rising, but you have conveniently omitted to mention that the number of vaccines administered is currently 67,000 and, rather more importantly, the number of those receiving a 2nd dose is also rising.

You are reporting too of hospitalisation though, again, conveniently omitting to mention that the mortality rate from a combination of vaccine and treatment is stable at worst and proportionately reducing.

That you believe travel is out for this year and perhaps next, is conjecture. We have different opinion in that I believe that travel will return, modestly from October and, although with conditions that will take time to get used to, with growing take up from December.

The winter months, save for those such as I enjoying winter sports, has fewer flights. The first tests for flight resumption from Easter 2022 onwards will be the re-opening of European ski resorts and the measures in place in mountain cafes and restaurants.

Fake news usually is the response to news that is unwelcome. For myself, and, dare I suggest investors that actually bother to read RNS, it is only once there is news that fresh appraisal of the prospects can be made.

Well, well, well…. In a few minutes, residents in England will have restrictions imposed to mitigate the worst effects consequential from exposure to the SARS epidemic that presents as Covid 19

I am hopeful that the vast majority of people aged 40+ are going to be sensible and maintain mask wearing. What I am fearful of, is not a spike in cases, but of a lowering of guard from those in their late teens and early 20’s where 2 courses of vaccination has yet to be administered and at a take up rate that is lower than those in their 30’s and 40’s etc

The first signs of inflation are presenting with another rise in the T44 bond rate and July marks the first month when the furlough scheme begins to wind down. It gives me no pleasure in commenting that this is likely to help the underlying business for RFX, but foreign exchange transactione remain (probably) muted.

Those businesses that have weathered the pandemic fall into 2 distinct categories, feast or famine. Whether the feast continues is immaterial. For those in famine, it is a question of time until the towel is chucked in or 2nd wind comes to the fore.

Whopper of a treeshake today. Glad that I had better thing to do than watch my holdings plummet in value.