Member Info for Alaric

the fact that Jite Okoloko is acquiring some 15% of San Leon suggests that he at least sees value in their assets and, an obvious point i've made before, - he of all people is well positioned to judge the value of San Leon's interest in OML18!

on the subject of our value, i can't resist reposting bluerill's recent excellent exercise which should provide food for thought and is certainly worth a re-read, particularly now we have visibility of sbb commencement:

'While we wait for the other 5% Suntrust shareholding in SLE to settle in Jite's Midwestern account and then the share buyback to be announced, here are a few numbers to consider when thinking about how cheap SLE shares are: Once Jite completes this non-cash transaction, his group will own 14.29% of San Leon, or roughly 71.5m shares, and will still owe SLE roughly $183m in principal ($146m) and interest (about another 1 1/2years at 17%, or appox $37m).
Now, just for fun, imagine Eroton wanted to take over San Leon outright at say, a 100% premium, or 52p. Well on paper that would 'cost' Jite around £260m, or $335m. But of course, he will already own 14.29% due to the current cashless transaction that should close soon, so that would reduce the purchase price to $287m. Ah, but we mustn't forget that buying SLE will relieve him of around another $180m in future liabilities over the next 18 months or so, bringing his net 'cost' down to just over $100m. Pretty sweet, huh? Ah, but we're not quite finished since the company he's buying now has approximately $40m of cash on its balance sheet already, with no debts.
In the end, buying all of San Leon's net assets would end up costing Jite's Eroton little more than $60m after foregone debts and cash on hand, despite paying double the prevailing market price for the shares he doesn't already own.'

Stephen, i believe you are a holder here and that you are well down on your position. whether we can get back enough to recover that i don't know. confidence in san leon and the credibility of its board have both been badly damaged over time - hence our SP today. but, as a value investor, that creates the opportunity for me and explains why i'm here at least. at anything up to the placing price 2 years ago of 45p by my maths this is a big value opportunity. there are many here who can read and tell you the price of this share today and yesterday . they tend not to be interested in the company's value, which is an entirely different thing, probably as most of them do not own its stock. when precisely this stock will see the inevitable forces of our undervalue reflected in the market is still to some degree a guessing game: personally i think we are now at the turning point and bargains once perceived tend not to hang around for long. all bad news seems behind us now and we have built a very stable financial position, so my expectation, with the SBB soon pressing into just 15% of our shares (i don't see our 85% institutional/ corporate shareholders selling at this stage) is that we should get some reasonable correction before the end of January. that may in part also depend on the detail of further operational updates i believe are due. obviously the sooner the better but i'm not selling until Tosca and Capital do, so it's no sweat for me.

i guess the very new non-holders won't know about Zac Phillips' indepth (100 page) report on San Leon from 2 years ago. why should they, it's not as if factual research is necessary if you're never intending to invest anyway? But i urge others, if they haven't already, to read this excellent piece of work and see the thoroughly worked reasoning behind his £1 to £1.20 sp valuation then. We are clearly more valuable now with Barryroe farm in, $40 odd mill in the bank and OML18 being developed etc. and just before they start slagging him off, ZP is a hugely knowledgeable and widely respected oil& gas analyst, who knows OML18 well anf has visited it.

hilarious - we seem to have had a plague of first time posters here of late. they clearly don't hold any stock in san leon and equally clearly things are getting desperate back at squirrel hq, as san leon's newsflow inexorably gets better.

Guru - i would have thought 50s is a very good guess as a minimum target they will want to get back to with the sharebuyback. The big placing to finance OML18 deal was i think 45p a couple of years back. We are in a much better position now with i believe the hurdles largely removed. Also by any reasonable valuation approach* we are massively undervalued at today's SP. * re valuation you could do a lot worse than going back to SP Angel's detailed assessment of SLE post OML18.

oh yeah, thanks for explaining that BlackSwan. really helpful as always ( must be all your 'big' experience in the Middle East ) i suppose ultimately though it boils down to calling it right or calling it wrong. limited information is a fair description of what you get at the fag end of the Nigerian press - that's why i tend not to follow it.

thanks bluerill for again explaining the capital reorganisation for the benefit of those amongst us who have less comprehension (although beggars belief at this late stage that this should be necessary). clearly good news albeit perhaps a bit later than hoped for. and puts paid to the hopes of those who put their faith in the Nigerian press: one is tempted to say 'told you so' but they never listen, so little point.

agree and thanks bluerill for rebalancing the board back into the earth's natural gravitational pull. good to be reminded just how solid a platform for growth we have built now with such strong institutional support. many AIM companies will be envious of our financial status.

i wouldn't worry about it SkullBone. the questions are not posed by non holders to get answers but to grind axes and probably to support short activity. the latter function is actually illegal. as you may have noticed, the troll cloning factory has been on overtime of late.

no sweat Redeyemines and enjoy your golf. i played yesterday and it's a very good antidote to all this poisonous rubbish. think the only remaining links to the offending article are the ones republished by BlackSwan this morning, which i suspect Admin have not yet spotted.

Redeyemines, suspect you are collateral damage here as part of the chain which Admin will almost certainly have taken down now to avoid allegations of libel. if you accept the premise (as i do) that the recent cited 'article' was defamatory and was intended to damage the company (financially), then all subsequent republications of it are also libellous. but then it is the republishers who would be liable. in the present instance the republishers would be both the poster and the board itself. so you've probably taken one for the team! thanks.

i struggle to get your drift these days, B7. it's kinda word salad stuff, as bluerill might say. you were much clearer 4 years ago when you ceased holding stock in San Leon. 4 years ago and still postng - you must have been hurt real bad . Ì7see below. :
'San Leon Energy - SLE
brotherseven - 13 Nov 2014 - 12:18:36 - 26036 of 39565
Glad I dumped this one last year,even though I lost heavily,...'

i wrote the subject title to these posts 'RIP (off)' to mark the passing of our recent sister/brother from this board. i am struck though by the deafening silence with which this has been greeted by his few admirers. surely a few words by way of eulogy from one of his non-holder buddies? B7's name suggests itself perhaps?

rather looks that way. it was the falling literacy levels in the end - always a dead giveaway

BS, before you go completely off the rails here, allow me not for the first time to correct your (deliberate or otherwise) misconceptions. i am a holder here and believe this to be a seriously undervalued opportunity at today's prices (for reasons i and a few others here have set out passim and at length over time. not going to repeat now but always happy to debate anyone based on known facts and judicious reasoning). my temerity in suggestion has little to do with non-holders who post here. most have stated this fact themselves at some time or other. i just find it weird that some people have such strong opinions about a stock they don't hold. and particularly now after time, when those opinions have proved so often to be wildly wrong. (eg. Avobone, quarterly payments, % holding in OML18 and last but not least Sun Trust). if i had listened (seemingly as you have) to such people, i wouldn't be a holder here. i don't (not that stupid!) but i do read all bluerill's posts with interest. i urge you and others to do so as you may learn some things of value.

interesting indeed BS. i've had my suspicions about you for a while but begin to see your positioning clearly now. i have absolutely no idea though what you're on about here. albeit i've evidently been struggling with english espression today, i can assure you i don't understand gibberish.

idiom correction for nerds! With apologies Fwiw below should have read 'without so much as a by your leave'. pred text has limitations.

hear hear! bluerill. well put.

curiouser and curiouser. well we may all be mad here, but there you are again, callasjunkie, after months away, picking up a sis8 thread the day after her big goodbye, without so much as a bye or leave. well well. and asking big long complicated questions about our deal on OML18. the trouble is you asked all those involved questions about Sun Trust back in the summer and we gave you answers, which you either just ignored or brushed aside.and you were wrong about most of that stuff- don't push me into reminding you, it doesn't make nice reading for you. also i don't believe you hold stock in San Leon - that's correct isn't it?