Member Info for Alaric

as you thought bluerill the price is, albeit later than i expected, closing the gap to the tender price now. so what effect the EGM then, if any?

it really is quite a teaser this. at the start with our SP lower it seemed a no brainer to tender at 46p but as we get closer and guessing we are likely due operational updates any time soon, i am not so sure. a couple of things we do know 1. the company is worth an eff of a lot more than 46p and 2. unsurprisingly, Martin Hughes seems determined to drive the SP up. and is he going to tender? according to Oisin's interview with the Irish Times, seemingly not and why would he at these levels? there i think i've talked myself round. there's a good chance now they don't get this 30m away, so logically they'll have to keep trying then. strange thing is still the market spread as at today against the offered price. maybe that will close over the coming days. i think i've just about talked myself out of doing this.

wow - you quoting Nigerian Sid!? well there's a first time for everything i guess but be careful it doesn't become a habit (might not be good for street cred). have to say i never thought it was or indeed could be anyone else selling. anyway just great news for us and clears this long and corrosive overhang. btw good luck with B7. his last substantive post was on 15 Jan when he reckoned we were overvalued, as evidenced by our 'stagnant sp'. it was 27p. in 2 days time the company is offering us 46p.

look i don't know if you need any medical help, Afafafumane, but the positive indicator you posted yesterday was after the price had already moved up. may i suggest you take stock on things before posting again here for and have a bit of a breather?

Eyes - to avoid your disappointment, i thought i would attempt an answer. it is fair to say that the indices he's been relying on (and advising us all to rely on) since before Xmas are, how can i put this politely, in need of some recalibration to say the least. just how badly out they have been is evident from some of Afamefuna's projections around mid December and i quote:
'but mr mclean i am adressing the plain facts .. to mr bluerill why with such fantastic information does the share price only ever go down. explain that to me please...it is 23.4p and falling... can you explain that to me please as no one belives it worth ..even 50p or it would be heading upwards not downwards.'

more recently he has been at pains to diss the tender process, unfortunately without much success (i can't imagine why?) :
'mr alaric you show your ignorance of shares buying and selling now. the 46pennys value is for only 10percents of mr dusters holding. you are a bit stupid in applying it to all of the shares he bought for 32p. i did not think you were so thick so is it that you chose to pull the wool over investors eyes for your own selfish reasons.'

eyes - your point is completely valid but please don't engage him in any more questions, as i don't think we can bear any more of his answers. (my last question to him was rhetorical - don't worry he won't know what that means)

which part of ‘focus on the facts’ did you not get? whilst undoubtedly true the bottom end of our wide spectrum of subjective response is psychologically quite worrying, i would never accept your premise. thankfully we have enough reasonably intelligent posters here to have a good discussion. wealth, success, size of investment (provided you have one) etc have nothing to do with the thing and i happen to think that’s what can make these boards quite powerful media, when used properly. you don’t.

one of the problems i guess on boards like these, because they are open fora, is that one gets a wide spectrum of subjective/emotive response, which is not always actually helpful to debate . i tend to be less concerned about style therefore (accepting we’re all different) and very interested in content, albeit over time we have had to fight through some ‘hyena days’ ( think the expression mclean used). It is clear reading his incisive prose that bluerill is or has been a professional, with deep experience of the markets we are in here. he clearly doesn’t suffer fools and when he is not ritually disembowelling squirrels (a sad but necessary part-time hobby) he is giving us the benefit of some very considered, informed and sharp reasoning. more important he has had a long track record of being right. so I kind of think we just need to grow up a bit. in the world i work in you have to be precise in the use of language and know your stuff and can expect to be ridiculed if you fall short - maybe that bar is a bit high for this board? you tell me but i do not think it at all helpful to insinuate (snidily) that bluerill gets info ahead of us somehow illicitly. judging from his posting over time, it is apparent he does considerably more legwork than most on this board. if he is not ‘the’ authority here, he is certainly one of them. the comments below come across very ‘ad hominem’, if i may say so. it would be better to focus on the facts.

exceptional and thanks bluerill. as ever your calm voice of reason and informed insights into the murky world of the big investment funds are super appreciated. this board is fortunate to have you indeed. will be fascinating watching our progress from here with all significant sellers gone, the forthcoming tender and (am hoping for) some operational updates soon.

redeye - i think the listings on our website are often behind the curve. not too much mystery around it being Capital - who else realistically would be selling 25m shares? Jite? he 's only just bought his holding. can't be Sun Trust as they have sold/ contracted to sell their holdings to Jite. and Capital have been reducing for a while. Don't think it's any of the squirrels as they mainly don't hold stock in San Leon! (bizarre indeed, illegal almost certainly and they should be investigated as such). sure it will be confirmed soon enough anyway.

excellent post, as always, bluerill. just great news all round in my book. losing the corrosive sell down of Capital's position and replacement by our biggest institution and supporter. i see Tosca now being super motivated and empowered in seeing the SP get driven up.

heh man that shakin' Chaikin of yours is some index, what's it saying today?! yesterday we were told ‘...the Chaikin Money Index has dropped below zero ... indicates a strong bear market developing..when the indicator stays below zero for a sustained period of time…it shows a strong downtrend.’ it has to be said, as strong downtrends go, our recent ascent from below 20p to above 39p must be one of the worst on record. you know Afa, whether it's your various 'news' reports or your 'financial' indices, all predicting doom for us, you've quite a record now of delivering a most positive affect on our actual news and on the SP - deliberate or otherwise, keep up the good work! (i've got you on alert now). i don't suppose anything in the Nigerian papers on this?

i've really taken to this new Chaikin one of yours, Afa. it's quite a humdinger - if i've got this right, when it says San Leon will fall, we all should rush out and buy yep? what does it reckon on the 46p tender offer? presumably that it's going to shred the SP? i haven't had such a good laugh since reading all that stuff on Sun Trust you sent us in the Nigerian newspapers.

yep - what does your RSI (really silly index) say about it?

sp certainly looks too discounted right now to me Olderandwiser. somewhere around yours and bluerill's excellent analysis last week looks right. and remember Oisin's recent interview with the Irish Times, where the journo states Tosca 'unlikely to sell' and see 'greater value in longer term'. and if the good news keeps coming, who knows what

the trouble is MartyP, as you said, you covered all this stuff in college. now i don't know where that was but they evidently weren't hot on quoting research correctly. you see TB never did suggest 46p was a great price, he was just talking in the context of the tender offer, as indeed you well knew because you can read. this is actually what he said:
'it indicates the sp is moving toward fair value which is well over £1.... Toscas last buy price .. was circa 50p, I doubt Tosca wants to break even, I suspect Tosca would like to see a decent return that accounts for them being a LTH, best to follow their money.'
So you have deliberately and dishonestly misquoted TB. I'm only calling you out on this because you fairly fling stuff around yourself and i really abhor that kind of intellectual dishonesty, which is plain disgusting.

interesting - that's at the lower end of the value range, that Oisin used to ascribe to a farmed-in barryroe. the higher end was c.$250m but i always felt that was a bit puffed.

thanks olderandwiser, your comments are most appreciated. belated welcome to the 2019 board and i look forward to reading your comments with interest as the San Leon story unfolds. i have previously described san leon's past as a 'roadcrash' story. it would have remained that way in my opinion, had Oisin Fanning not produced this amazing OML18 opportunity and had Martin Hughes not backed him on it. the most compelling factor for me in our investment case is the power of their relationship.

not forgetting the Irish Times piece at all, bluerill, and indeed great spot by mclean. as well as the non tender participation by large shareholders point, of particular note to me was the positivity around increasing output from OML18. if we also get updated news on the well drill soon, then the dynamic here should be of a different order.

olderandwiser, i have been counselled by some significant shareholders here, whose views i respect and who have been very supportive of the aggressive stance i and a few others have adopted successfully against the hideous trolling campaign that has been waged against san leon over time. in the past i think i have called it right but on careful reflection i realise i was too hasty the other day with you and realise now this was a mistake. please accept my sincere apologies for that. this is a poor excuse but you appeared on this board at a time when some well known 'faces' were reappearing. i do care what i post about here (i think some others on this board over time might verify that) and i am very sorry that on this occasion i gave insufficient thought to what i wrote.