RE: Open pit mining at Phulbari recommended5 Sep 2025 12:03
At this very moment £1 a share is $430m dollars. $500m will be the very very least they could take this for and even then I would see that as GCM still owning 25% stake.
It would need to be $1bill to take it completely early, 30 years guaranteed local market buyers and anything spare gladly taken by China.
However that aside doubt we will hold more than 50% to get to full production, due to the costs of CAPEX.... though if we hear more about the overburden, that could be traded against the CAPEX, essentially we just give the overburden to PC in exchange for them getting the mine to production. I'm sure there are a lot of computations, but with PC behind this financing whilst maybe costly will happen. PC can take a share of the project to offset, overburden has value and PC has access to Chinese finance that are more than willing to support their team mates on big projects. This is China Belt and Road. They want the work, they want to get a bigger foothold in Bangladesh, they NEED the energy stablility in the country to expand other business, Bangladesh will be under no illusion this is guaranteed no import coal for 30 years with no wet rocks and a lot of Chinese business to come and jobs. Plus it will cost them nothing and private investment not easy to come by in the country at the moment.
I also see 25% Bangladesh, 25% PC and 50% GCM as an option reducing the need for much dilution in getting project going plus gives the others a stakehold and position.
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