Member Info for AIMOilking

Piper - interesting article, no wonder the UK Government and Opposition are back peddling on Green issues so fast. The indexation is also an issue given the current high inflation, I am starting to feel sorry for whoever wins the next general election. They will have to pay for it somehow, so the chances of EPL relief or further modification look like zero, unless NS production falls off a cliff and a few NS O&G's with it. Fortunately, ENQ fairly well placed to weather the EPL storm as long as Brent remains at a reasonable level.

Bought more ENQ over the last week, starting to regret dithering yesterday, but nevertheless today's rise has put a spring in my step!

It might be worth complaining to Question Time and or the BBC.

Our new finance director seems like an interesting chap, appears to have been involved in the sale of Salmander, cut his teeth at Shell and in the City, plus a Phd. Although, Getech Group has a modest turnover it is operating in the sphere of ENQ's Veri and Copus was by far the highest paid executive (£278k last full report) in the organisation, probably the highest overhead to boot (paid over 5% of Getech's revenue!).

So, on paper he makes a good fit for ENQ - does anyone on the BB know him or can shed any light on his calibre?

Well done to those that bought on today's low, I was tempted and dithered, partly because over committed to ENQ as a share/company.

Good rally in the sp given that Brent was in the end flat today.

The idea of splitting the company into O&G and "Green activities" is interesting, could either half be sold off in the future?

Actual volumes of shares traded are not particularly high, slightly surprised we had such a good rally today, unless ENQ green credentials really do make a difference, it will be interesting to see if the Swedish sell off continues at the same pace this week after the RNS's.

Noted that HBR's balance sheet and FCF could swallow ENQ whole without missing a step, even with a 100% mark up on the current sp, but if that is ENQ's fate, I hope any price exceeds 20p, I would personally be disappointed with 25p, if a deal were struck today, as I believe AB would be. If I were HBR, I would grab some ENQ shares, even as an investment, surely it is worth a punt. With the Capital Losses and FCF, I am surprised there have been real rumours in the market place, or even a little more speculation in the rags, but I guess NS O&G is only of any interest to the shareholders. I would have thought that as takeover's go the synergy and cost savings are undoubtedly there and the integration of the two companies would be very simple as these things go.

Yes, it is ugly, but on a positive note, I thought more care had been taken over this RNS as it detailed the changes with an air of enthusiasm. These RNS are like buses, they all seem to be coming at once - what next? Perhaps, I'll purchase a few more @11p?

Flash Crash - not so sure this time - Saudis may not be able to afford such a costly exercise again and the US can play the OPEC production game just as well given that the US produces more oil than Saudi by some way. Plus, if oil goes below $70, then the US will start filling their depleted reserve which will keep supply tight.

Called it wrong again on two counts, ENQ sp has fallen 3.52% today aided by sub $75 Brent. Should have waited to buy, I'm going to put a limit order in sub 11p just in case as my next purchase.

It appears that a combination of USA pumping oil at record levels, faltering economies and the World becoming blase to the tragedy of the Ukraine and Israeli Wars has undermined POO. Sub $75 is O.K. but sub $70 will really start to push ENQ financial goals out to the right. I cannot see both triggers occurring on EPL as we are now into Winter gas demmand and prices. I am surprised that there have not been a few more "international incidents" in the Middle East, a few years ago missiles flying around the Red Sea and hitting Western Cargo ships would have sent POO through the roof.

Roll on the 19th Dec and the de-listing which should give us a new base line sp, which I am hoping we have already overshot and roll on the next set of results and frankly any good news RNS's that help underpin the sp and stop the slide - now beyond painful, if not thoroughly depressing.

Well done Krak, I'm up £71 on my purchases over the last two days - its a start, but a long way to go!! I have to take solace at every opportunity after this year's adventure with ENQ. Pieces slowly falling into place as EPL is digested, understood and it has been confirmed with update that the company is making headway. Hoping and betting on the ENQ sp making progress now through to the end of the year, a lower price of Brent being the only potential fly in the ointment but I am expecting it top hold in the high $70's-80's, so should be O.K.

Just looking back over 13 years and there have only been two brief periods in 2016 and 2022 when the ENQ sp has been this low which is in itself incredible when you consider how far the company has progressed, the balance sheet is unrecognisable compared to either of these short periods.

Managed to get my order away with a limit order, it would be nice to see some more directors' purchases and let's hope we have reached the bottom!

Romaron, send your questions to ENQ IR, I am sure we would all like to see the answer.

Bought a couple of times this morning, but with difficulty/reduced quantity and currently cannot buy shares - possibly market tightening up for ENQ shares. Have to say, when a non-exec buys £50,000 of shares with their own money (not options etc), I would have expected a better reaction this morning, especially as we started with a rise in POO.

Using Romaron's analogy, I am now so far down the rabbit hole with ENQ, I am wondering if I'll see the light of day, currently mourning this year's lost opportunities thanks to Hunty and EPL.

Just dwelling on the closing ENQ sp and how many more shares I would have purchased for the same money if I had waited a few hours today. As I write ENQ off 4.57% and Brent off 0.18%.

I then pondered the loss of MCap over recent months whilst POO has risen and debt has been substantially reduced. In May 2022, POO dropped to $67 and on 6th May 2022 ENQ sp was 36.1p, today the sp was 12.75p this roughly equates to an MCap LOSS of £431,000,000 - yep we have lost two thirds of our MCap whilst just about every indicator suggests the price should have gone up beyond an sp of 36p. THIS SHOWS JUST HOW MUCH DAMAGE EPL HAS DONE - IT IS CRIMINAL OR BEAUCRATIC INCOMPETENCE.

Averaged down 3.4% today, it may be a case of good money after bad but I can't resist averaging down as the price drops - probably ought to cancel Christmas!

If I were HBR, I would buy a minimum of 2.99% of ENQ and perhaps up to 29.9%, why bother actually trying to take over ENQ, much more flexibility in just buying the ENQ shares and selling if one needs to or wishes to take a profit.

Sub £250m MCap, topped up for the following reasons:

Under valued

Good Management

Potential Deals

Capital losses

Potential Buybacks (eventually)

Middle East

Ukraine

Winter

Lack O&G investment

O&G needed long term

Finally, ENQ Long Termers luck must change at some point........

Hopefully, tomorrow will be a blue day with Brent over $83, a recent positive snapshot of ENQ' figures and speculation burbling in the background as who in the O&G sector is going to make the next move. Clearly, I want ENQ debt reduced as a priority, but if there is cash slushing around in the Current Account and FCF flowing through the door, I still would like to see at least some buybacks and directors buys to marginally ward off a hostile takeover and achieve a higher sp for long suffering shareholders.

Whilst we wait for OPEC to pronounce, the Iranians have offered incentives for families to go and live on islands in the Straits of Hormuz or Humus or even Hummus if you are ex-President Trump, although one of the incentives is freedom from military service, I suspect certain skill sets will be a prerequisite. Meanwhile, Israel is exchanging hostages which is good news, but I fear what comes next, presumably the conflict continues and occupation. Some Western focus has returned to the Ukraine War during a rest-bite in the Middle East, but no end in sight. Whilst the West has its dual focus, despots are plotting and making incremental moves on their desires and alliances. Even the floating armadas stationed to act as deterrence are themselves sitting ducks to asymmetric attack or a lucky missile attack, how does NATO react without starting another war?

If I were in government, I would be pushing net zero but I would also supercharge NS O&G incentives to boost energy security, tax revenues and GDP to pay for the Green shopping list.

I would feel far more comfortable with a re-rating of the ENQ sp, 22p now would be about right and NQ would still be undervalued.

Krak - Like you I struggle with a reducing MCap whilst net asset value is materially increasing, mainly in the form of reduced net debt thanks to FCF, today's ENQ sp even more confusing after a positive above expectation update and Brent rising, now $82.5.

As you say, around 20th Dec will be a date to watch, unless the directors start buying before then to soak up some slack, that would be nice to see as a vote of confidence, hitting 20p by year end would be a half decent Xmas present as would a decent deal popping out of the woodwork. My only worry is that if Harbour moved swiftly on the run up to the delisting and did a deal with AB, we could see ENQ go under the hammer for perhaps double the current sp, which would be a disaster for long termers like myself.

Am I dreaming?

Enq has just confirmed an increase in net asset value, Brent is up 1% and ENQ is down 0.65% and optimism over an indexing of EPL when the trigger price was far to low and potentially all profit is subject to EPL. Then there is the Coleman advert, mildly amusing and pointed but completely kicking independent UK NS O&G companies in the slats. I just wish someone would challenge the government perhaps on grounds of being anti-competitive.

Romaron, months ago IR advised that a number of discussions were taking place but none of them were at the stage that needed reporting in an RNS - so there is a reasonable chance something may be coming to fruition.

Now that it is clear the Government is unlikely to modify EPL beyond inflationary increases in the trigger price of oil and gas, my guess is that ENQ's hand in any negotiation will have strengthened. What I would like to know is whether we might expect a mega merge with Harbour or a scrap of of incremental production added to the portfolio to accelerate the use of capital losses and debt reduction. I do not see a major acquisition on the cards or a major field development without a cash rich partner buying in.

What I do want to see is a robust statement from AB confirming all is well and that buybacks will commence as prudently and practically possible irrespective of the 0.5 target. It should be made clear that all is well at ENQ and destruction of MCAP directly as a result of EPL should be taken advantage of with buybacks now. I would rather pay £2.5m now for 1% of the shares as an example compared with waiting to next year and paying a lot more, spoken as a committed long termer. I would like to see buybacks and director buys immediately in support of a robust operational update to return some value to shareholders, raise ENQ's profile in the market and protect ENQ from an aggressive takeover and to generally strength the company's standing/MCap. Bland updates are pointless, we need a robust statement on debt, finance, shareholder value, Swedish de-listing and direction............

Shareholders need some reassurance from the BoD, especially if the update figures are mediocre.

AB seems a decent sort, he has my respect for his achievements and that of the ENQ's team, but needs to put an arm around the shareholders, we are also part of the team!

Romaron - good point - I met someone recently whose sole job was to X/twittter on behalf of politicians and CEO's, plus I suspect Ed considers himself a Labour older statesman, so he'll beat the populist drum until elected and then look/expect for/a more senior cabinet position.

Glanced at review and not impressed - white wash comes to mind and an early sentence summed it up - "Therefore,

changes to the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) were not considered as part of the call for evidence".

No mention of the impact of EPL on financing investment (bank covenants being trashed) in capital projects.

Whilst 2028 firmed up for the end of EPL, a lot of words ruminating on the next form of tax to take its place and no idea of what constitutes windfall profits - $70??!!

Interested to see report apparently highlight what was coming in the Autumn Statement.............

Someone timed the announcement on the refinery to perfection, probably does not like EPL either, EPL probably hastened the decision, plus the lack of an EPL bone being thrown to NS O&G sealed its fate.

Very, very disappointed in the report, in Hunty and the Government, probably disillusionment over the whole state of play on EPL, or perhaps lack of fair play. The increased costs (transport) and associated carbon footprint and growing £30bn hole in UK GDP makes me feel poorer already.

It occurred to me that even without EPL, when POO is high, UK government gets windfall tax receipts, but it seems they hand them over as subsidies to anyone with a Green idea and apparently without checking the technology and viability - perhaps our politicians need to go back to school to brush up on their maths - there was something in the Autumn statement for that! EPL should be named the DWWWEPL 0r Double Whammy Windfall Windfall EPL

On the Upside, ENQ does have plus points including tax losses, let's hope AB can deliver some decent EPL figures in the update and way forward on all fronts - perhaps as Churchill put it, we are at "The end of the beginning", that was in reference to el Alemein, but it feels like EPL has put NS O&G on the other side of the NS/Channel on the beeches at Dunkirk!