Member Info for AIMOilking

Brent has dropped below $81 this evening, but Dotlink, I think you may be right about seeing $84 this week, although the US is pumping for all its worth and some economies are faltering, everywhere you look tensions are increasing. It is unbelievable how things have perceivably/apparently changed in the last four day break. Israel stating the war in Gaza will go on for months, US striking Iranian backed targets in Iraq, threats to shipping and shipping lanes and the Red Sea and beyond becoming a potential flash point, Iran sabre rattling, the Russians loosing a landing ship and perhaps now totalling 20% of their Black See fleet against a country with no Navy, the Chinese and Russians getting closer and former upping the threat to Taiwan, Guyana and Venezuela land dispute Somalian conflict continues and that is without touching on many internal national issues around the World - all really very depressing.

The sad thing is that other than ENQ production levels, the only other thing that helps ENQ reduce debt and counter the effects of EPL is a higher oil price, if it were not for the US record production levels, we would be looking a POO of $100+. $100 is unlikely at this stage unless tensions heighten or conflict spreads but the mid $80's is very much on the cards this week and I am more convinced that a low $80's base line will hold through Q1 2024, but I have been wrong before as things are no longer as predictable as they used to be.

If Brent holds above $81 and the Bressay news that there is an extra £34.5m in the bank (+£11m when producing) and and unloved asset is potentially worth upwards of £200m and there are other potential partners interested (or at least there were according to IR), then tomorrow should open with some blue sp action. Plus and unfortunately, one could argue tensions around the World have not eased but tightened up since the market closed on Friday. Let's hope the analysts are also using the break to write up their revised targets for ENQ's sp. Personally, hoping we'll hit 17.5 before the week is out and 22p early in the New Year with 27.5-32p by next December. This will be supported perhaps by another Bressay buy in and development, more directors buys, one or two low capital cost production projects in the portfolio, diesel swapped out for gas on rigs, a clear shareholder value policy announced and reaching the 0.5 ratio by end August 2024.

Very excited about ENQ's prospects and should have put the above wish list on Santa's list..........although just higher Brent and production in 2024 will do!

Anyone care to counter an August 2024 for the 0.5 ratio to be hit?

A quick calculation which assumes that Brent pricing will average above $80 and production holds (the Bressay money is in the bank) suggests the illusive 0.5 ratio could be hit as early as August allowing the potential of buy backs later in 2024. If this is a correct assumption, it all adds to the potential upgrading of broker targets.

Totally agree broker updates need to be revised. If you take the latest targets from the four brokers that have published on LSE - the average is 27.5p and that was before the latest news. The lowest was 20p and highest 38p and all the ratings this year were before the operational update which on balance was positive and confirmed debt reduction is progressing despite EPL. Brent dropped slightly at the end of the week but still above $79 and H2 average will be higher than H1. With EPL paid for this year and most capital and leasing costs along with reduced interest payments as debt reduces, along with the Bressey payment we should see a slightly accelerated debt reduction in the two months since the update. What will also be interesting see in the full accounts is a potential upgrade in asset values.

We have an unprecedented 12 RNS since the last update (equivalent 3 last year) which has provided positive news and demonstrates the BoD are working hard and backing the future success of ENQ. The next big insight into ENQ's progress should be in mid February - Trading Statement (last year 17th Feb 2023), that is less than 7 weeks away!

Dumbly - great dig at the UK government and EPL in the last sentence!

Looking forward to the next trading session and I hope that the analysts will upgrade their targets following today's news.

Stumpy, I think it does justify 15% for the following reasons:

Cash increased/net debt reduced (est -10%) which de-risks ENQ

Demonstrates value of Bressey asset and undervaluation of ENQ MCap/sp

Extra cash to progress projects without undermining balance sheet

Partner to share costs and risk - development more likely to proceed ensuring future production rates

Tie in to other assets confirms viability of all linked projects

Need I go on?

There appears to be a bit of profit taking but hopefully the sp will climb again in the last hour of trading today.........

Kicking myself for not adding earlier this morning, but have joined the frenzy with a few more ENQ shares, never mind 16p, I think that Barclays 22p target is now in view.............

13th on % gainers today and rising - great Christmas present!

AB has bought around this time of year and with this deal in the offing, he would not have been able to buy - let's see what happens today - should be BLUE anyway!

This news should put a couple of pence on the sp, accelerate debt reduction/finance costs and accelerate some of the field development projects in hand.

On balance this has to be good news.

I am pretty sure that most of us thought that HBR was the obvious buyer for ENQ because of the tax and refinancing (CO2 "Green" elements) advantages were so clear and the integration of the two companies would have been relatively simple. However, HBR had declared there post EPL strategy to seek multinational assets and we had no idea that Cook was thinking quite so big. The advantages of acquiring ENQ remain but I am guessing that HBR will have "indigestion" for the next 12 months sorting this out and beyond with company integration issues.

On the positive side, if HBR has indigestion, then they are effectively removed from the M&A NS arena which may leave ENQ with some room to make other deals. Clearly, AB and his team are very active at the moment judging by all the RNS this month, this includes director buys and increased stakes in ENQ - generally low key positive news from ENQ.

I think that AB may be acting in a cautious manner, one might term organic growth rather than explosive growth (HBR fashion). I think that debt reduction remains core to the ENQ strategy and recovering the ENQ sp, I do't think he has the appetite for taking on massive amounts of debt again. With a 15% stake in the company and a approaching a decade and half at the helm of ENQ, his priorities are to strengthen the balance sheet through debt reduction which will eventually feed through to the undervalued sp/MCap at which point with Sullen Voe and any remaining tax losses ENQ will ripe for or subject of some M&A activity. In the meantime share buybacks, even asset sales will accelerate the sp growth and a pile of cash and FCF will sweeten what ever comes next.

Should have backed HBR and ENQ, but from ENQ current low valuation and HBR's complicated integration ahead, I still think ENQ will come good, it is just unfortunate that EPL has moved the goal posts to the right, but POO above $80, debt/finance cost reduction and buybacks will see a 60p party but it may take 24 months. DYOR

Added recently, partly due to stronger gas prices and partly to average down. I was also hoping that there might be news coming out with AGM or perhaps some insight from questions answered.

I would welcome any feedback.

$*%T£ - I have been watching HBR but piling into ENQ................ Clearly, deals are being considered and made in the O&G sector, but so far nothing from ENQ - come on AB, we need some positive news that will not screw the balance sheet. I would be happy with a takeover but for a lot ,ore than the current sp/MCap.

We need to IR to update their major shareholders list which has Cobas down as 3.9%, so a move to 5.0442% is quite a jump.

The top nine shareholders now have est. 51.6% of the company tied up, with some long termers like AB, this should help tighten the availability of shares to trade and help push the price up.

There have also been nine RNS this month so far which have been largely positive which is also helped the recent sp recovery. I reckon these have all helped sentiment towards ENQ and the price of Brent and this latest RNS should help ENQ end the year blue, tomorrow should interesting.

Must have been the one's I bought, personally now in for the 12 month ride wherever ENQ takes us, but hopefully double this be Christmas 2024.

Could not resist and added - again...........so even more exposed to the fortunes of ENQ but I reckon company fundamentals are good ad undervalued as most posters believe on this BB, plus I think $80+ is here for a while whilst oil and oil products are routed around the Red Sea which must put delay into the market - surely delay and risk puts pressure on POO.

Brent back over $80 and Swedish delisting complete, FCF landing in the ENQ coffers, so hopefully now a steady rise on higher POO, good news or decent updates.

Hydro is a relatively consistent, clean form of energy and is not necessarily environmentally damaging, so why did Natural Resources Wales put up the licence fee for extracting water to an eye-watering £6327 this year????? Plus all the other thousands of pounds for application, design, planning consent and a multitude of surveys Bat, Otter, Bryophyte, silt, tree, environmental impact etc. Clearly the bigger the scheme the more important these surveys might be, but really is this proportionate for a small hydro on a garden stream which would provide some power for a household, just the cost of the licence would cover my electricity bill for many years if not indefinitely (if ENQ paid a decent dividend!).

There are currently no subsidies for Hydro - the whole Green policy is a mess and will eventually be seen as a fraud upon the public/taxpayer.

Personally, I don't see it is in the interest of the oil producers to have a price war as their oil based economies cannot afford it, plus the beneficiaries will be their non oil producing competitors.

Another thought, even at the current Brent price, if you add 4.6% inflation to the £71.4 EPL trigger price, we won't be paying EPL tax by the Autumn, if the Brent price stays at this level or below. If there is linkage to the gas price that may be another factor.

Effectively another director purchase (in the family) which is another positive RNS, ENQ is building up a head of positive steam, let's see if the others wade in, particularly Malik, if he believes in the new venture and as CFO.

Looking positive, roll on the 19th and let's hope the US puts more into the strategic reserve so that the current price of Brent holds or improves.

Looking good and with hindsight just wish I had added more......