Operational Update15 Feb 2024 16:56
The reduction in net debt has surpassed my February target forecast ($485m) by year end - $481m, thanks partly to lower Capital Costs. This means that my August target for hitting the 0.5 ratio could occur earlier, especially if the Bressay monies due in January are not included in last year's figures. In addition, the companies forecasts for production levels around 43,000 or above in '24 & '25 are positive and allay immediate fears of production decline. Brent at $82.8 as I write are likely to hold due to geopolitics and demand, so debt reduction should continue a pace, as will reduced financing costs. Another partner for Bressay will bring in cash, reduce risk and exposure and probably make progress more likely. The in-fill programmes are also positive as is SV potential.
Brokers should re-rate a.s.p., buybacks will likely start mid year and at the current rate of debt reduction, the balance sheet should look even more respectable by the year end. The question remains, will AB pull some rabbits out of his hat, possibly in an ASEAN country?
Certainly a more upbeat tone to this update, I might even venture out for the AGM and look forward to a more detailed presentation in March.
A better day with an 8% rise and this month's massive portfolio loss has been recovered..............another 7 days like this and I'll be back in profit lol!