Member Info for AIMOilking

The message is ENQ had a good year and has a lot going on in the pipeline outside core NS activities. Otherwise, AB continues his course with usual understated wisdom...........

When AB get's back to the UK, I think we'll start seeing some more RNS relating to steady progress and now less than a month to the next update which I expect to be relatively positive. However, I would like to see AB mingling with the analysts and brokers and encouraging a few more new targets published above the current sp. I think that is a pivot point and that may be hitting the 0.5 ratio at which point perhaps the sp will mirror net debt reduction, helped by buybacks and ENQ may be given a little more credit for the assets it holds in oil, gas and "green" sectors.

Just looking at the sp on 21st December prior to the Bressay announcement (14.23p) and the rice of Brent (just over $79) and then looking at today's figures 13.76p and just over $78. We are now almost a month along and two and half months since ENQ's last update. Now debt was $585m at the end of October and since ten $44m has dropped into ENQ's account thanks to Bressay (I am ignoring the implied value of 85% of Bressay) and two and half months of debt reduction has taken place, anywhere between 25-50m - so why is the sp 13.76p? The Bressay money alone whipped off 7.5% of outstanding net debt!

Hoping PMG will end blue today, but surprisingly no movement yet.

Hertz lead the way with EV's but customer complaints and higher costs has resulted in a U-turn with Hertz selling off 20,000 EV's and returning to combustion engines - now this is going to rock the boat EV industry and Green boat. The "green" technology is getting there but has not quite arrived across the board. It will also reaffirm that O&G are very much part of the transition and here to stay for a while..........ENQ better keep producing and sequestering CO2 until the "Green" technology is truly viable.

Finished writing and the strikes have already started - no surprise!

US strike on Yemen Houthi targets imminent, likely coordinated with UK and other nations assets in and around the Red Sea, but also Iran has seized a "US" owned but Greek operated oil tanker off the coast of Oman near the port of Sohar, which is relatively close to the Straights of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. The straits are 21 miles wide at the narrowest point and I believe the shipping lanes each way are just a couple of miles wide. The Iranians recently occupied uninhabited islands near by and the key thing is that 20% of the World's Oil passes through these waters approaching 20m barrels a day or 125% of all oil ENQ produces in a year! The timing of this hijacking is not coincidental and whilst originating from a separate issue, the seizing of an Iranian tanker by the Americans, I believe the timing is an act of threat and support for the Houthis.

These are worrying times, if the US President addresses the US tonight, then tomorrow we could find ourselves leaning over a tipping point, let's hope the hinge is rusty and things calm down before we are tipped over into another unwinnable war.

The price of oil has been remarkably stable given the multiple crisis during the last 3 months (and beyond), in fact it is on a downward trend which can only be attributed to US record production, but then even the US has drawn down on reserves this last couple of weeks. Recently, the analysts have been downgrading forecasts on POO, but is this about to change. In the past, we would have seen a high spike in POO tomorrow morning, we'll have to wait and see, if so, it will be good and bad for ENQ, higher revenue but smug satisfaction from Hunty that he was absolutely justified in implementing EPL and that would mean no change before and election.

It should be a blue day for ENQ tomorrow but at the expense of a "Red" day for the World............I would rather see a well run company like ENQ making a decent profit in a fair tax regime with a positive and stable business environment in a peaceful World. It emphasises that we need energy security during transition and we need O&G's contribution to GDP for a strong nation to to pay for "everything".

Sek, at this point a fairly rational argument which broadly aligns with my own calculations. I have been concentrating on the price of Brent as the key factor in this potential outcome, but can anyone give me a prediction for ENQ's actual production in 2024 and 2025. 44,000 seems reasonable but I have seen other comments suggesting falling production and I don't have a understanding of any reworking or drilling that is programmed to maintain or increase production levels. Any analysis on production would be helpful, although I assume that we'll get a forecast from the company in the February updates. Has anyone asked IR?

Oxygen, it is worse than you think, there is a very powerful Conservative/Landowner lobby around the Surrey/Dundfold area, if they don't want something on their doorstep, it does not happen. The delayed development approvals of Dunsfold airfield has been a case in point and there are countless examples of Hunty supporting and his mates bulldozing planning through in other areas of the county. East Street in Farnham is an example in which around 10,000 people objected and there were countless shenanigans and it still went through. EPL is wrong and so badly wrong, it stinks, so much so, I think those in the know will make a lot of money when it is finally dealt with, unfortunately for the industry, by that time it may be too late. There will probably be a few CBE's handed out to people for "exporting" our CO2.............LOL.

Noted US inventory draw has surprised the market and Brent is back to $78.5 which is all good for ENQ, that is if the sp responds positively.

Stevo, still wish someone would take the government to court over EPL being punitive and unfair. Everyone is up in arms about the sub post offices (rightly so) but the financial impact of EPL on NS companies and their shareholders is at least an order of magnitude greater with just the loss of MCap etc. etc.

I read about the CEO of a gambling company being paid £220m + dividends, if that is not a windfall..............why isn't that industry having an EPL tax or the banks, Supermarkets etc. There has to be a case for a high risk industry such as NS O&G being treated unfairly, particularly the retrospective aspect of EPL, losses not being fully counted against EPL or billions of previous investment considered and of course the ridiculous POO floor level and association with gas.

Sunak and Hunty are fairly and squarely responsible for this travesty and injustice.

HBR probably have indigestion at the moment, although at the current MCap, ENQ would just be a hiccup!

If any company wishes to take ENQ out, now is the time to do it whilst the MCap is so low and any news from ENQ is likely to confirm debt reduction is on track, so long as production and POO hold up.

Can't see the Ukraine or Israeli/Red Sea situations being resolved any time soon which should underpin POO as will a lack of O&G investment generally.

Added again today, averaging down and now very much at the mercy of the ENQ sp!!

I still think ENQ will come good barring a disaster, but it will another good deal that demonstrates the value of the ENQ portfolio of assets and although a good update in February will help, it will be the buybacks and update in H2 2024 that will really shift the sp as ENQ is further de-risked through reduced debt. In the meantime, we are all in the hands of the price of oil..................

Now I am off to check myself into gamblers anonymous and a bit of therapy.

World's largest banks make record $3bn for underwriting EU green industries, a record and now exceeding $2.7bn from made from Oil industry. However, this was achieved because of an EU dictate that banks must proportionally invest more in Green industries. I can't imagine all the banks bond customers are quite so happy about this turn of events, as they will have been investing in wind turbines etc, industries which are proving not quite so profitable as expected, so perhaps some difficulties coming with loan repayment? Siemens a case in point!

Hopefully, sentiment is turning and ENQ will have its day a darling of the stock market when it multi bags on a strong balance sheet and real value. Roll on February and the update/results.

FCFY - personally I would prefer a buyback for the following reasons:

It allows me to better manage my tax affairs - selfish reason.

Dividends are twice a year, expensive to administer, can cause sp fluctuations which encourages day traders and shorters, requires management of market expectations, dividend growth/cover etc.

Buybacks can occur at any time and for any amount that the BoD chooses, in ENQ, probably up to 10% issued shares a year. Timing is critical as ENQ is sensitive to POO, so buybacks on a POO down turn would seem to make financial sense. Basically, it keeps punters on their toes, shorters don't like buybacks as they can wake up to a nasty shock with a sudden buyback fuelled sp rise.

Anyway, this is my simple view on dividends versus buybacks - go for the latter, if it is good enough for Warren Buffet.........his preference.

Krak, bear with me as I ask a few perhaps rhetorical questions - doesn't a lot of the oil go across the channel to Holland for refining because we don't have sufficient refining capacity in the UK?

I assume the refined products return to the UK?

I assume that a condition of sale could be that refined products are returned to the UK - thus a reasonable degree of energy security?

If energy security is the issue might the UK invest in refining capacity? Oh, stupid me, that would increase our CO2 footprint rather than exporting that footprint to Holland!

Is that not a fairly short turnaround compared with shipping oil from the Middle East, USA, Africa or S. America?

Totally agree with Krak a floor of $90 would solve a lot of problems unlike Hunty's last effort to appease for the sake of a decent headline, about as good as a wet tissue attempting to soak up the recent floods!

Also agree we'll hit the 0.5 ratio, personally I think by August '24. Buybacks can't start soon enough at these prices, at least we are back to 14p - ridiculous undervaluation.

Sek, it is worse than you say - ENQ MCap would have to go up from the current value by 18% to even reach your MCap £327m figure!

I am so surprised by the Jefferies target, albeit it has almost been hit, that I feel as if something does not smell right. Jefferies could be right and have their reasons, but I can't help wondering if the NS O&G industry has not been manipulated for a phenomenal short which could be followed by a phenomenal rise either because EPL is relaxed/removed or going forward the companies balance sheets/shareholder returns will demonstrably show how undervalued the industry has become, of course, this depends on POO going forward. I see that a lot of the analysts have downgraded forecasts for POO in 2024 largely due to US record production, but this will not last and development and investment into new fields is still declining whilst demand may have peeked, it will continue to be high.

How much are these analysts paid? Either I am completely bonkers and deluded or at best there is some really lazy research being undertaken. A 14p target does not make sense, although despite POO being up again yesterday evening and this morning, Jefferies has undoubtedly helped a downward move towards that 14p their target. Hopefully, other analysts will counter with reiterations of higher targets.

All I can say is roll on the next update which should be in about 5weeks or so time, hopefully some real figures will underscore the value in ENQ and continued de-risking progress.

Sek - It is 2025-28 that I am really interested in with respect to sp, as long as Brent holds up and AB does not pile us up with more debt and move the 0.5 ratio to the right. By '27-28, with Bressay on line, production and revenues could be much higher and there is an outside chance that when EPL ends, it will not be replaced by another punitive tax.

A bid is the only thing that will crystallise some shareholder value immediately, but if that bid comes too soon, the ENQ long termers will not see all the potential sp upside.

Totally agree with you that ENQ is woefully undervalued

Sek - good summary, I have the 0.5 ratio being hit in August '24 and without any other positive news 27.5p minimum by year end. Another partner for Bressay and or an announcement and or higher oil price could precipitate an interesting jump in the sp.

Thanks Krak, you are right, patience is the key here but it has been a painful 14 months here but I hope we have turned the corner - ENQ still my biggest holding by far. I feel like the guy that has been sent to the hardware store for a "long weight/wait"!

Doubled my holding in PMG last week and up 42% over Christmas with hopefully a way to go, I don't understand why we are not getting that sort of rise here, 42% on the current price would only take us to 22p! Also do not understand Brent's fall below $79 given all the rising tensions. Even when you throw into the mix epl, politics, global tensions, US record production etc etc. The ENQ sp still does not make sense - undervalued.