Member Info for AIMOilking

The following article is well worth a read: https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Wind-Power/Dutch-Energy-Minister-Admits-That-Wind-Power-Agenda-Is-Pricier-Than-Anticipated.html

Ooo - surprise, surprise and reality is dawning, questions need to be raised here in the UK.

Dutch Minister of Climate and Energy Rob Jetten admits that wind power is facing serious financial headwinds.

Jetten: consumers should expect substantially higher electricity prices than initially anticipated.

The increased costs are not primarily linked to global market developments but rather to the extra €10 billion required for connecting offshore wind farms at sea to onshore infrastructure.

Romaron - good effort .

This line made me laugh: "NSTA also asked leading operators to supply details of their production and investment plans

and to look at how they might go further and faster wherever possible."

I am not sure I would provide a body such as the NSTA with my business plan.............! And if the NSTA want to get things going, they should get of their backsides and lobby for the abolition of the punitive theft tax - EPL.

I wish AB had come to me for a few bob loan at 13%, I would have inflation beating income and would not have lost a bundle on ENQ!

I am slightly surprised that POO is not higher today, but on reflection I don't think the West has an appetite for fueling inflation and interest rates with higher oil prices, Iran's next move may be the precursor to a $100 barrel price. Even at $90+ ENQ still did not manage to hold onto 15p - the November update is going to be key to improved sp.

Dumbly, good find and here is another sensible article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-UK-Needs-A-Public-Buy-In-Into-The-Energy-Transition.html

Surprised oil has not responded to the Israeli situation, although calls for more measured action are growing.....it is what happens next that may move POO - invasion and the response on Israel's northern border.

I am expecting the price of Brent to hit US$100 on Monday. The situation in the Middle East is escalating and the wild card is Iran. The nature of Iranian rhetoric has turned aggressive and that could manifest in several different ways, direct action or more likely indirect action through third parties against Israel or aligned allies. The action against allies does not have to be military in the offensive sense but simply closing the Straits of Hormuz (even just posturing/threatening to do so will be sufficient), through which 20-30% of the World's Oil passes. To give you an idea of how physically constrained the Straits are, they are little more than the English Channel at their narrowest and the in and out shipping lanes are just two mile wide with a two mile buffer in between. The Iranian smugglers pop over to Oman daily in their speedboats. If Iran chooses to close the straights nothing moves. Iran does not need big warships to close the straights and alternatively, it could just put hundreds of thousands troops across the Gulf in small boats and the gulf states would be overwhelmed.

For the West, Ukraine is "worrying" but the Middle East is right on the edge of extreme catastrophe and I am seriously worried.

One of the worrying signs is that the US is hitting record oil production and suddenly inventories are not declining, last week they were up 10.2million barrels. What are they expecting?

I am not sure we will be worrying so much about ENQ sp next week, we will have other matters attracting our attention, but if Sunak needs a smoke screen to reverse or moderate EPL in the energy security their will be a window to help improve the investment environment for the NS, the headline windfall tax can stay in place just modify the price of oil at which EPL is payable to say $90 which would ease the banking constraints.

We will see 15-16p next week due to at least a spike in POO, but unfortunately at the cost of global security.

“The war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships,” Jamie Dimon warned CEO JP Morgan.

Interesting he mentions energy first in his list, may be Sunak will take note and tell Hunty to make amends to NS O&G in his Autumn statement and then JP Morgans 27p target may just come true.

Meanwhile, Brent hovering around US$91, providing there is no global meltdown over the weekend, Monday should be good for ENQ. Apologies, my global focus is on ENQ, I sadly can't make sense of anything else outside my bubble, but DImon echos my own thoughts, as I articulated in a recent post. It seems that the posters on this board are ahead of the game, but those in positions of authority and power are finally catching on.

Romaron - classic!! Keep burrowing away........

"The truth will out" - the trouble is politicians have usually moved on by then...........

Brent just gone $90+.........

Bit of a wiffilly interview............ If he pulls DRC off, he has still got to "trade" the money out of the country and the change of Lithium strategy to high volume export because the price of Lithium has halved this week is weak, if he can do that now.......why not before?

Pretty desperate but but AB might fly...........!

Stevo - thanks and concur and Tigar, see Stevos last post, the tax would effectively be greater than 75%! Bonkers!

Thanks peeps, 150m of EPL in 2024 would suggest net 350m FCF, so buybacks etc potentially possible 2024 on that basis or the 150m is too high.

Not sure about net debt being 625m at year end, I am hoping 575m or less. Brent currently at 89+, which will help.

ENQ down close to 1% whilst Brent almost up 3%............

US will keep its oil for itself or increasingly make energy security a leverage for other economic or military advantages, the Russians have already played the energy card during the Ukraine crisis, the Iranians are likely to be sanctioned for any number of misdemeanours and the Saudis and Gulf states will flex their muscles and pricing as long as their oil lasts and the Middle East crisis does not escalate. Then we have all the economic and environmental restrictions placed upon the industry in the UK, some good, some simply unrealistic against a background of growing tension around the World with anyone of half a dozen serious scenarios likely to kick off and adding further pressure on mass migration due to war, genocide, economic and plain old pestilence and starvation.

So the question for the government: Is it the right time to penalise the O&G industry to the point of destruction, kill jobs and expertise, dent GDP and UK competitiveness, and finally reduce the UK's energy security ahead of a financially realistic plan for net zero and workable renewable source and associated infrastructure is in place?

The government needs to get a grip and get real, it cannot play King Canute and King Herod at the same time, the tides of climate change and society's demands requires some real planning, in the real World and yes on a Global scale, but not at the expense of crippling the UK so that everyone else can go on burning Fossil fuels which are finite anyway. Ultimately, can we as individuals give up our lifestyles and can those aspiring to have a Western standard of living give up their dreams?

Dreams postponed and belt tightened - I am heavily invested in ENQ, foolish in retrospect, I did not realise how stupid Sunak, Hunty and Co could be, should have invested in destruction and defence stocks. Despite the backdrop of doom, I still believe as ENQ continues to get its debt under control thanks in large part to high POO, shareholders will have some sort of party between 30-60p within 18 months. November's update should help us refine a timescale.

Totally agree, Brent up 2.2% and ENQ down with almost no trades?

At $87, can anyone give me an educated guess at current net debt reduction per month?

Can't wait for the end of November ENQ update........

"Two Just Stop Oil protesters jailed after scaling a bridge at the Dartford Crossing have lost a bid to challenge their sentences at the Supreme Court."

Three years prison will make some extreme protesters think twice about taking action that impacts or endangers the public.

I get the feeling that the "public" are starting to realise there are no short cuts to net zero and if they society in some recognisable form is to survive then fossil fuels will be part of the transition and NS O&G needs to be part of that transition to renewables.

Still believe we should be pounding politicians of all parties, key figures and stakeholders and the media with concise arguments/potential impact of the current form of EPL - common sense usually dawns and hopefully it will n ot be too late - unless you are a lemming!

From Telegraph article: "Mark Carney has said it is “not right” to expect countries with oil and gas industries to “shut down overnight”, admitting that fossil fuels have a role to play in net zero.

The former governor of the Bank of England said it was important for economies to “build up the alternatives” before winding down oil and gas production, adding that it was impossible to “divest your way to net zero”.

Speaking at an event hosted by the International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Marrakech, he said: “In economies that have conventional energy — so oil and gas production — you can’t shut those down overnight. That’s not right. That’s not a just transition.

“You need to build up the alternatives. You need to work with the communities, train people, undergo the transition and all elements of that need to be financed. And they are equally worthy.”

Mr Carney, who now serves as UN special envoy for climate action and finance, added:

“You can’t overnight divest your way to net zero, you have to be investing all across the chain.”

Mansardman, if we did not have the tax credits and a decent management team I might agree with you, but we have a team that has delivered major debt reduction, met recent project timescales and costs and completed some decent deals along the way. When the government of whatever colour realises that NS O&G is an integral part of the economy and transition strategy, EPL will be relaxed and we may yet have a 40p party even if it is not 60p anytime soon.

The November update is going to be crucial, so that we can have a good look at the figures and I believe ENQ will give more detail on the form and time table for shareholder returns in whatever form.

Does anyone know how many individual shareholders ENQ has?

I always wonder as to how many shareholders have been directly affected by EPL across the Oil sector and indeed, the energy sector. If it is 10,000 then of little consequence in terms of political clout, but if 500,000 hold shares, then that would potentially be equivalent to 1.5% of those people who actual voted in the last general election. It is all hypothetical, but I cannot afford to vote labour unless I cut my losses and leave the NS O&G sector completely. Having said that ENQ with its FCF and Tax Losses/credits stands as good a chance of any of the NS O&G's to recover some of its shareholder value/MCap/sp.

DYOR but personally holding on for the ride and will re-assess at the end of November after the update.

Thanks Stevo, I overlooked that salient point, better just keep hammering away at the politicians and media whilst ENQ looks for more favourable places to operate before all the tax losses are used up.

I have to say with Russia and probably about to be joined by Iran under further embargoes following the latter's likely involvement/support of the attack on Israel, perhaps Sunak now has an out over EPL and North Sea. That out being energy security during transition to renewables, given the UK and Europe are largely dependent on Russian and Middle Eastern oil and gas, it makes sense to be as energy dependent and economically strong in an era of growing crisis.

As a minimum, they could increase the O&G prices before EPL becomes effective to say $95 for POO and allow all capital losses, plus give assurances for the future. This would immediately have a positive effect on NS O&G businesses and might make finance more available, ease stress on financial covenants and make investment more likely as business cases would instantly be more viable, but it would need comforting words from Labour as well, who if elected will want the revenues from the NS to help balance the books, which it will not do if in imminent and evident decline foreseeable.

Thank you FiveO, high priority but no timescale. I hope they are not waiting for a RRR fire sale and it would be good for RRR to get DRC or a Lithium contract in their bag to strengthen RRR's position in all respects.

Can't quite figure today, gas up 1.4% and PMG down 3.21%, radio silence sine the last RNS in June, that is a long time for no news. Beginning to wonder if TC et al are turning up to even turn the lights on? Well, at least we'll get a snapshot of what they have been up to in about six or seven weeks time................