Member Info for AIMOilking

Had a very quick glance at the accounts and it would appear that Waldorf are a classic case of EPL kicking them in the nuts!

Some decent assets and US$1.75bn of loses booked, but debt pile at 0.5bn and revenue at 0.5bn, finance costs at $95m plus unquantified decommissioning liabilities and noted hedging as "conservative". Without EPL could have made decent headway against debt, but............ Also noted small number of direct staff, so takeover could be relatively straight forward and if all staff carried - 6m.

Must be worth ENQ taking a look, but would push debt back to $1bn ish, but revenues up $500m and reserves increased - almost a fire sale.........

Here is the link for Waldorf's last set results ending Dec 22 - https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/imQbPuJV5z5IITKK0IH4CwfggRj6qdw_T7PdgvKvPqA/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3HR36DIUQ%2F20230921%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20230921T175127Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEAYaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCIQDkJ6zn7tbLoSjlv8oHuVhhGX3UhmT3a8u2Wc%2FNor3kBgIgct9xaKRn0KjD%2B1Ri5M%2FRMQdVe1yKIX5JZJbjtXtk4J4qxAUI7%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FARAEGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDCvkTHR2cCgPzA81CSqYBQNHFyfxpgK%2FWIBigm1PxUT8KmcniIJt2LQ8b3vwTvq0CrxW5e2kq7aq82nMHgQ5f6fRUC7XL0bYmZsfQ41mR%2F7fSqpykhu666hbogI97sO5BrNzAKr%2FCVVM0SFew44zB2sPpjyGv78ns1N8qs4kfu33kN05mDuGFtPtHflVHkwH3BjTnpWLQv5Tvfyuxgsg0WdLmIN8ifDJ3bmsyekeFu8LfNgUKXa030EzS%2F%2BJ7wmmIN5h2xqcMoI6T%2FVRViw3zYPjOLgkbpDtp51D2gcE6Nu7cOiCmDEccOyKkGBzJym%2FPZyidC5iqEzbReIJSMK1lp6F%2BKMvdyxTtjTeTVq3Qb0rcSdcVc7ODOEOKbc4rhHDGwcoAipdv9LWZikdFX4qRhYnePJ72N6g0C8VcnF7WuzdpK11oLo4FzRgq7cMkwMKvONpna1Gu3EdLLmHdjnmL%2BstvXSrerguVDYFfvjw6sFlq1OM9RBNHJbMMnIUX3SHx6rqbzTcehILMKEEU6pv6lXIHIHnh5W6qZjE%2BDLLbqxmODS%2BbN7bjHPQdJmM9d5lkPTIhmKucupPuNnTljG7KSFnMnl7bnxQ57nKtcGv1U2sycXAcZKm%2FEGdEEdvU3M37NHF7YJ60vqNTanKK0M1mHTBGtuY%2Fg4nM9EO%2FAnEx6N6tbJ3cTuK4e27a6Lxw1ruDHNGpTFAPQedkPilAebZExZ5qOg0G%2BgTOl5hgVS4kDu3EnKHumVIDbsz2nIRU1qHtIH2YMlRWcnyeNI3w72z%2B6yd%2FHe6R1H2WHM8qH7V%2FjltEzHY2VTnXwJXqqrBYpJyC1%2B7EJFL7y7%2FggPoKgBnHwp3MB0XFdRteRjD5FV3pHpIZzv94p49LhcOBB7V7upaEDFVNUHYyaEw%2F4uxqAY6sQFqEuoCsIz16R%2FOXlx998TZHk8l8XhGlsvrvlA%2FLYoODGdXnG%2FM4nsKDTg%2BUQcwUbmcrdhowpk89z1ktjQ%2FYvWMViN0vLliulU6eHqbGKlo3Ad11JvS5RsfN3%2BtSNB6QM8HkNpsSMasA5ZkjElM7hf9pitHmwrFPkMq5k2QchzKa7%2BjXvPKIkXtcWQyyeHJFInFtgatBrORUcKC%2FjRz0MZAQgQshTN9VRj5EomNjzJXz2A%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22companies_house_document.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=56e3be7eb3f60c21710cfddb3828cf12077900d0f93c491a36dd41c33b788b79

There will come a point when NQ's sp will respond positively to the increasing price of Brent. If ENQ is now getting close to the full price for its oil and gas, revenue, FCF and debt reduction should all pick up this H2. Miserable weather here but hoping for a "Blue" day here at ENQ.

Without EPL1 and EPL2, plus the prospect of an even sillier Labour party, we would be closing on 60p and calling AB a hero.

AB is delivering a reducing debt and has promised shareholder returns in some form, again without EPL, the latter may have started or at least fleshed out.

EPL and market sentiment should be the focus of your angst and I remain convinced that patience in the case of ENQ will be rewarded in 2024, barring more political silliness.

What I cannot understand is how are we going to pay for all this imported energy and green technology without any indigenous production or value generating industry. The UK will have imported its green credentials but the reality is that we'll be too poor as a nation to turn the lights on. I was wondering what I would do as a young person starting their career, I would think long and hard about working overseas and if I liked it, emigrating somewhere else.

Back to reality, bump, with a large ENQ lose to nurse, but hoping a rapid recovery is within a 12 months grasp through debt reduction and FCF generation or M&A activity.

The average size of purchases today seems slightly higher (perception), there could be a bigger buyer out there at the moment given ENQ ridiculously low price and climbing POO. Seems to be positive buying at 5/4 v's sales shown. Good chance we'll end blue today and unfortunately I think that Ukraine will heat up in a last push before the cold weather and with the damage/sinking of two important large vessels and a critical dry dock being the sort of incident to which the Russians will respond. In addition, I think we can say the Summer is over, it certainly feels Autumnal here, so energy demands will put pressure on supply.

It has been a tough week or so as an ENQ long termer and some ways I see AB slating EPL publicly, his team shouting about ENQ tax advantages as a partner and the Swedish delisting as a turning point. ENQ has already confirmed they are in talks on multiple fronts but none RNSable at the moment, the time frame I am now interested in is the November update and announcements around that time following the delisting and particularly on debt reduction and M&A activity.

No - correction - down 3.19%.

POO up:

Investor presentation completed;

New director appointed with "Green" credentials;

Gender box ticked with 50% female BoD.

ENQ SHARE PRICE DOWN 2.56% Nice...............................

Presentation a bit lack lustre, nothing new accept suggestion that the shareholder value return policy will be out by the full year results.

It simplifies governance and that equates to some cost and and more importantly some management time. A simplified share structure will make it easier to do many things whether it is M&A or buybacks etc.

Just be grateful that AB has skin in the game, although I would take 40p from HBR any day this week or anytime in 2023, which would value ENQ at three quarters of billion pounds, not a lot!

In an FT analysis comparing ENQ with 10 others "peer" group companies and excluding HBR where ENQ makes close to 50% of the total revenue, 55% of the peer group and including ENQ are now making a loss. These loss making companies are losing about $370m on revenue of about $2.4bn, so why is there a windfall tax?

This same FT data shows that 41.07% of shares are held by institutional holders, plus AB holds 12.45%, so that makes 53.52% held by significant shareholders above 1.78% each.

Just thought it interesting data.

Looking forward to the spreadsheet update.

Apart from Dividends and repurchases of share, directors buys would also help the sp, so why are they not buying?

It is clear from the ENQ IR departments comments that here are on-going M&A discussions but none have reached a stage that they need to be RNS'ed. The shares are at a give away price but no director buys. I wonder if the BoD has decided not to grab shares and take the pain at the moment, because it suits to have a low share price and MCap from the PR perspective with respect to EPL. They could be reserving their firepower and options in case there is a hostile takeover attempt. In some ways, accept for Pi's looking for a profit or out, the sp is irrelevant at the moment until debt is reduced to the targeted 0.5 ratio or EPL is removed/reduced. We just have to accept the good times have moved to the right but if production and POO hold they should come to those that wait.

It seems the tide is changing - pile on the pressure and see if something can be squeezed out of the Chancellor's next review.

Tommo, we need to start writing to the Chancellor, MP's and anyone that matters. At least AB has got off the fence and between him and Cook we should have some good material for quotes.

Added today, just averaging down a little, hopefully H2 will be better than H1 and Goldman have revised POO up to $107 FOR 2024, so as long as production figures hold up, things should improve for ENQ.

With a $75.8 realised price in H1, a $140m of FCF was generated, if production forecasts stay the same and the current roughly $91 is maintained for the rest of the year, we might be looking at an extra $100m of extra revenue, less EPL, we should be looking at a total $200m FCF for H2. Any increase in POO or production for the remainder of the year could generate roughly another $6.5m per $ increase in POO or $13m for an extra 1000bpd less tax.

The ENQ upside is looking interesting and debt reduction should increase pace for H2. As debt reduces, finance costs decrease and so does risk, which means we should see a better sp performance which will be reinforced with a November update, the next news date in the absence of nothing else happening.

Today was a shock but whilst all the things we are waiting for our undoubtedly moving to the right, it would appear recent and potentially higher POO will at least be a mitigating factor, ensuring a sp rise in due course. Perhaps this is a buying opportunity.

Swedish delisting will save a few pounds but more importantly it will relieve management time spent on two markets, ENQ would be better registered on the US market.

Results slightly below my personal expectation - damned EPL!

$89 !! I'll be up early tomorrow for the report and if that does not budge the sp with POO at $89, I'll eat my hat! ENQ 1.4% up today, slightly frustrating the sp did not hold onto the 18's.

With POO at $88+, I am expecting a tick up on the ENQ sp tomorrow, supported by the expectation of some decent figures on Tuesday, if the BoD can deliver, it would be nice to see a re-rate post results.

Krak, I would go as far to say you are likely to be wrong, I think the BoD have made it clear that they intend to inform us about the policy for returning shareholder value, you think H1 and I think 5th Sept '24.

The other ace in the hole that AB may have is the gas deal struck and starting in May '23, where ENQ is delivering an extra equivalent 4000blspd, if that is all additional revenue, next week could see an interesting improvement since end April. I am more positive about the overall picture, just needs POO and production forecasts to hold good.

I'd like to see Ben Wallace - he seems sensible and tells it like it is!

Brent @ $86.31 and ENQ heading down, hopefully we'll see a little catch up this afternoon and end blue.

Very excited to see the report on Tuesday, let's hope there is a re-rate as a result.