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There is bound to be a resource upgrade on Mestiza at some point in the future. The mapping and rock chip sampling on the Mestiza vein set looks like it doubles the size of the Mestiza area. See RNS on 3rd Oct. "mapping has traced the ...strike length for at east 3.5 km in the Mestiza area". They haven't drilled the Espinio Vein but it has a strike length of 2.6 km, show a jog in the Chaparro area and has higher grades, numerous artisanal workings and 41.5g/t gold. Look at the map in figure 2. the discovery of the 10g/t gold high grade ore shoot continuing 100k to 150k oz gold has a strike length of 450m or 12% of the strike length of vein set. if they can find a few of these super economic high grade ore shoots it will change the project. How big is Mestiza? Could be much bigger than the Russian resource as the area has just doubled in size. it would be foolish going prematurely for a resource update.
Final 6 drill results due any time. Confirmation of TSX of listing Last drill results on Mestiza were excellent and discovered a high grade ore shoot of 100,000 oz to 150,000 oz gold at 10g/t gold. Mestiza is outside all current mine plans and could change the project. at US$1,200 gold price, assuming US$85 per tonne underground mining costs to convert to a bar of gold. there should be between US$60M to US$90M free cash flow or 2 to 3 times the current market cap. The cost is 2g/t to extract and turn into gold and you sell for 8g/t gold ( deduct 20% for metallurgy recovery and mining dilution). Still leaves 6g/t or US$240 per tonnes free cash flow. at 400tpd = US$33M free cash flow per annum for minimal capex.
Final 6 drill results due any time. Confirmation of TSX of listing Last drill results on Mestiza were excellent and discovered a high grade ore shoot of 100,000 oz to 150,000 oz gold at 10g/t gold. Mestiza is outside all current mine plans and could change the project. at US$1,200 gold price, assuming US$85 per tonne underground mining costs to convert to a bar of gold. there should be between US$60M to US$90M free cash flow or 2 to 3 times the current market cap. The cost is 2g/t to extract and turn into gold and you sell for 8g/t gold ( deduct 20% for metallurgy recovery and mining dilution). Still leaves 6g/t or US$240 per tonnes free cash flow. at 400tpd = US$33M free cash flow per annum for minimal capex.
SS69, we are all frustrated shareholders, but you should blame the Government for the delay not the Company. Read the 2 page permitting update in the interims. The Government stopped the Company talking about resettlement with the community. The Presidency has done a U-turn and told the company to reach a deal with the community. The new General Manager is Nicaraguan, worked as a Mine Superintendent at El limon, one hour away and will have the gravitas and knowledge to deal with the locals. His appointment is a smart move. Looks like the Company will present to the community after the 5th November mayoral elections.
Andrew F, the interim report in September contains 2 pages updating the market on permits. The company hasn't been able to talk to the community about resettlement for 12 months due to a controlling Government. This has changed, a new General Manager from B2Gold has been appointed. The Company hasn't yet presented resettlement plans to the community, this should happen after the mayor elections on 5th November. "It is understandable that the Government should want to approve a RAP prior to the RAP being presented to the Community. However, an unforeseen negative side effect is that for almost 12 months the Company was not able to communicate the resettlement plans directly to the village. This in turn created uncertainty and understandable concern among the people to be relocated and led to some protests in the village against the Company. In mid-August, the Presidency signalled to the Company that the Company should reach an agreement over resettlement directly with the village. This represents a change in policy, as the Company can now communicate directly with the village regarding resettlement.
Strider, I have checked you comment. The numbers have been used before but are updated frequently, so they are not out of date at the time of the presentation. They are RBC's numbers. Ask the Company if you wish. No permits = no mine is far to simplistic and not what we are talking about regarding re-permtting an old mine at Mina La India. The Government has permitted 3 open pits in the last 2 months. it is on record as saying it wants a new mine at Mina la India, that is why the Government goes to PDAC and the Minister of Energy and Mines gave the opening talk at the mining conference in Nicaragua last August. The Government is pro-mining. if you don't think permits will ever be granted, sell up and move on. However, i think this is why the company is so cheap and provides an excellent buying opportunity. Most of this BB can't see the wood for the trees. 90% of exploration companies get sold before they are granted permits. Better to leave this to the big producers who have the social and permitting teams. Probably what Condor should have done. Without permits the following 4 exploration companies have sold: Mariana Resources sold for US$175M to Sandstorm Integra Gold sold for C$570M to Eldorado Gold Papillon Resource sold for US$570M to B2Gold kaminak Gold sold for C$ 530M to Goldcorp Condor will be taken out in the next few years whether it like it or not BECAUSE if you look at the latest technical reports on the website, it really does look like it is sitting on 5M oz gold and a major gold District.
Strider, the US$100 per resource oz gold in the ground are taken from Condor's website, using the latest powerpoint detailing these numbers, it is a few months old. permits will be granted it is just a question of timing due to resettlement. The Government has permitted 3 open pits in the last 2 months. Unfortunately this BB is obsessed with permits where I look at the major District Gold Play being created. The market is wrong to ignore 10,000 m of drilling with very positive results on 4 separate areas: Mestiza, Cacao, Andrea and La India vein. The market has ignored the geochemistry survey and 20 plus rock chips of over 15g/t gold (half and ounce) in several new areas. i think the Canadian's will get it. 70% of the TSX and TSXv is natural resource listed companies, 7 TSX listed companies operate in Nicaragua
correct answer! The brokers in Canada should be advising investors to sell their exploration shares valued at US$100 per resource oz gold in the ground and buy one at US$20 per resource oz gold in the ground. A no brainer for a broker to generate commissions ahead of year end bonuses. Expect rotational buying into a company valued at a fifth of the canadian peer group. The TSX must have already reviewed the Prospectus otherwise they can't give conditional approval for a secondary listing. The TSX listing will put a floor under the share price. Expect much more marketing in Canada and a re-rating to follow. At least double the current share price within a few months of listing. Perhaps a high profile Canadian based Director to join the Board to raise the profile?
TSX listed Company resource oz gold US$ average over US$100 per resource oz gold in the ground vs US$18 for Condor. Price to book ratio TSX average 0.84 times vs 0.22 times from Condor. Aisc TSX average US$1,012 vs US$710 of Condor. 5 TSX listed companies operate in Nicaragua Dalradian 114 Continental Gold 112 Pilot Gold 46 Gold Road Res 68 Lundin Gold 56 S2 Resources 471 NovaGold Resources 68 Midas Gold 35 Sabina Gold & Silver 38 Global total 100
Strider, I clearly need to qualify my comment that permits don't matter that much! I agree with you that they matter a great deal but the are not the bee all and end all. i am glad i provoked a reaction. This BB and the market sentiment has got this share completely wrong as 99% of the chatter is about permits. Yes, they are important, but 90% of gold explorers e.g. Mariana get taken out without permits. The delay in permits is fully discounted in the share price. The frustration here is that the company is making great strides on the ground that are being ignored, but are understood by serious backers e.g. Jim Mellon, Ross Beaty, IFC. the improvements ignored: 1) geochemistry survey completed, interpretation on website under technical reports. Clearly shows a a major gold district. just what the gold producers want to see. 2) 2,800 m scout drill on 4 targets. Cacao and Andrea vein look excellent 3) 6,000 m drilling on Mestiza shows a new discovery, a high grade ore shoot containing maybe 150k oz gold at 10g/t gold, see 3.3m at 28g/t gold 4) 1,800m drilling on La india south, including 7m at 10g/t gold 5) rock chips of 142 g/t gold on Los Limones. 5 ounces at surface 6) mapping and tock chip sampling show Cacao vein double sin length and could quadruple to the East 7) Mestiza mapping increase vein set 50%, 50g/t material in the north, 2 km away all ignored.....it creates a superb buying opportunity
Wondergoals, the Company should never have listed on AIM in the first place as the market is hopeless for explorers!! That's a decision inherited by MC. Don't forget there was a 5 year bear market with gold dropping over 40% and the HUI Index of explorers and Condor's share price falling 90%. There was no point in spending money on a TSX listing and incurring extra operating costs (compliance fees, quarterly accounts) during a bear market. The market has stabilised in the last 2 years, gold has formed a good base and is in a trading range between 1150 and 1,350, technically looking good with higher lows. However, investment sentiment is still fragile, but now is the time to list on the TSX. The listing should be before year end because 1) the interims contain quarterly accounts, which are required for the TSX, they are not there by accident 2) see DGF video, there is a massive hint at a TSX listing The OTCQX trading, it isn't a listing, costs around US$25,000. Very small for North American exposure for a Central American asset. it is okay but a questionable decision. The main prize is TSX or TSXV listing, see what it did for Mariana Resources before it was taken over this year. Sol Gold got a secondary listing on the TSX in June 2017. The Company is being managed to take through to production. You can't really say to the Government "give me the permits, i am a credible operator" and in the same breath say " i am going to flog the asset'. That said, La India is shaping up to be world class and whether they like it or not, my best guess is they will receive an Approach or bid in the next 12 to 18 months. US$700 oz all in sustaining cash costs, production up to 165k oz p.a.and an asset that can double to 5M oz gold. the strategy is correct. it is tragic that this BB is overly focused on permits, they don't really matter that much, there are other valuation triggers.
Simon, the market is losing site of the fact that permits will be granted. We all know resettlement means the permits will take time as the company has to reach a deal with the community. It is an old mining town that can be brought back to life. The Government has permitted 3 open pits at 3 difference mines in the last 2 months. Golden Reign for 500tpd a new mine, an open pit at Libertade mine and one at El Limon. The negativity surrounding permits is completely overdone and unwarranted. The market has got it wrong, which is why this is an amazing buying opportunity. The project has got bigger and better in the last few years with the geochemistry and 10,000m drilling. TSX listing should trigger a re-rating. AIM is useless and doesn't understand explorers. The cycle has turned with the majors looking to replace depleting ounces and have a pipeline of new mines.