The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
it is highly encouraging that MC has praised the Calibre management team, acknowledging they have an excellent track record at Newmarket Gold and he is clearly delighted they have succeeded in raising CAD 102M of equity for Nicaraguan assets in a difficult market. it is significant that MC has met the CFO and CEO at Beaver Creek and Denver Gold Forum. This is what good CEO's should do, build commercial relationships particularly when operating it a tough, frontier market where Calibre and Condor face similar operating challenges. Overseas mining and exploration companies are better working together of issues such as permitting, artisanal miners, laws etc. as for Rothrock's negativity, alleging MC is dreaming about toll refining with Calibre...how could he possibly know as he wasn't present at a CEO to CEO meeting?
Tester....i hadn't picked up the two phased approach. Starting with a smaller plant, high grade the main permitted pit at 5g/t gold, extracting 10% is 60,000 oz gold production, high grade the feeder pits at 6 g/t gold. (Mestiza 120k oz at 8.7g/t gold). Build a plant for US$20M to US$30M finance 50:50 debt to equity, produce 30k to 40k oz gold. minimum shareholder dilution and underwritten by Jim Mellon, Ross Beaty and Nicaraguan Milling Company. Phase 2, expand to 150, 000 oz gold pa in 3 to 4 years time. Avoid the 7 times dilution served up to Calibre shareholders
Calibre Mining announced the completion of CAD102M (US$77M) equity placement 2 days ago. Proceeds go towards the US$100M acquisition of B2Gold's mines and assets in Nicaragua, due for approval at a Calibre's General Meeting on 8 October. Mako Mining completed a US$26M rights issue last month. Over US$100M in equity raised for gold mines in Nicaragua in recent weeks. Money talks. It highlights that Nicaragua is a good mining jurisdiction. Should re-focus investor attention on Condor's 2.4M oz gold resource, includes 675k oz gold reserve, fully permitted and massively undervalued at US$12 per oz gold in the ground and price to NAV of 0.15 times, all-in sustaining cash costs of US$690 oz gold (less than half the current gold price) and the 5M oz Gold District
Hi Seingred, Calibre's 2.4M oz gold resource needs qualifying, typical Canadian promoters. it is spread across 4 separate projects, the don't own 100% as 2 are JVs and it is 95% in the lowest category, an inferred mineral resource. The attributable mineral resource is 1.8M oz gold eq. The biggest resource is mainly copper and very low grade, not in sufficient size to make a mine
100% Primavera, 45Mt at 0.84g/t gold equivalent for 1.2M oz gold. Inferred. Moving 45Mt at that grade? copper project costs US$ billions. hasn't got the grade or scale at the moment. see Sol Gold
100% Cerro Aeropuerto 6Mt at 3.89g/t gold for 757k oz gold....this was a JV with Centerra who walked away last year it didn't work for them
49% Eastern Borsi. 5.7g/t gold for 812k oz gold (IAMGold has 51% and can go to 70%). Underground project. could work at 50k oz gold per annum, but lacks scale today
33% Rossita D. it is tailings and leach pads. 670k oz gold
Calibre's experience management team understand 2 projects they 100% own lack scale and the others are now investment projects they don't control. The B2Gold deal is a bail out for Calibre as they are between a rock and a hard place (excuse the pun) they need another 4 years work to drill the existing Projects to a commercial size, obtain permits and get shovel ready.
Hi Seingred, Canaccord and Sprott Capital Partners have been live on the Placement since the deal was announced. They have issued a Term Sheet, which says the placement closes on or before 15 August. It involves the issue of Subscription Receipts, placement of calibre share at C$0.60, funds held in Escrow etc. What usually happens in is the subscribers sign an "irrecovable subscription agreement" subject to the Transaction circular being issued, the deal approved by shareholders at an General Meeting, DD, raising the cash etc. Payment of the subscription monies won't be until the last minute, but the point is the Placement is due to close this week. That way, Calibre and B2Gold know there is money to complete the deal
B2Gold's interims out yesterday reveal just how bad the losses are in Nicaragua in the 1H 2019. AISC US$1,607 per oz gold at La Libertad and AISC US$1,567 at El Limon. Capex is also significant. La Libertad has 12 months ore left and will have to close unless it permits Pavon. No surprise B2Gold wants both loss making mines off their balance sheet.
Calibre announced the US$100M purchase of B2Gold's Nicaraguan assets on 2 July, subject to raising US$76M and DD. A month later Calibre still hasn't raised the cash and completed the placement. No wonder, the deal makes no sense. Expect the deal to be restructured. A deal only makes sense if they roll up Condor's 2.4M oz gold at 4.5 g/t gold, fully permitted.
Resolute Mining's acquisition of Toro Gold for US$274M demonstrates the trickle down effect of acquisitions/consolidation in the gold sector. It started with mega mergers: Randgold & Barrick, then Newmont & Goldcorp. Gold has broken out above $1,400 oz and heading higher after consolidating for 6 years. Every gold mining CEO has the same challenge: "where is the next mine coming from?". None want to show a decline in production. They all have depleting reserves through production and very few have spent any money on exploration and finding the next mine. The junior and mid tier producer have the same challenges as the big guys. Toro Gold is in production, but has half the gold resource of Condor Gold, only 1.244M oz gold, but the reserve is higher at 928k oz gold. Purchase price of 0.9 times NAV, US$ 220 per resource oz gold in the ground and US$295 per reserve oz gold. Condor is trading (net of cash) at $9 a resource oz gold, $31 a reserve oz gold, 0.1 times NAV. The only and main difference is Toro is in production. The M&A focus will trickle down to the gold explorers and likes of Condor Gold. Jim Mellon, Ross Beaty and other have just invested £4M on this thesis.
Cambells, B2Gold states it has held a Public Consultation for Jalabi and expects permits soon. They say they plan to mine Jalabi in H2 2019. Jalabi must be included in the current mine plan. Doesn't change the reserve or resource numbers, the $55M provision or fact La Libertad closes next year
Munchbox54. The updated reserves and resources to 31 December 2018 demonstrate La Libertad has insufficient ore to last beyond 2020. If they mine the reserves only, the reserves are mined out by end May 2019, but they will blend reserves with resources and have sufficient ore this year. B2Gold will mine "into 2020" but until when in 2020? The auditors have forced a provision or write off of US$50M for La Libertad. Companies don't write off $50M in plant and equipment if it still has a "useful economic life" nor would B2 highlight an additional $34M closure charge
From the Annual Information Form (AIF) on B2Gold's website. Good news for Condor. La Libertad is mined out and will close next year
la Libertad mineral reserves updated to 31 December 2018. Page 14. la Libertad 1.1M tonnes at 2.01g/t =70,000 oz gold. (Condor's reserve is 675,000 oz gold) so the economic reserve is 1.1M tonnes and the plant capacity is 2.4m tonnes. By May 2019 the reserves are depleted, assume they just mine reserves. Then they are mine Indicated and Inferred resources, which aren't necessarily economic.
AIF, page 52. "Closure and reclamation costs at the end of 2018 were estimated at US$34.7M" and "current plan at La Libertad includes mini and processing into 2020, with a combination of Mineral Reserves and Resources". In other words plans are not to operate La Libertad beyond 2020, so it closes next year. Otherwise B2Gold would say "plans are to operate La Libertad to 2025" or a longer date
Tester123,
B2Gold's MD&A on their website, page 33. Heading "La Libertad Long-lived assets". Note the US$50M impairment charge. See table "key assumptions used for the impairment tests at Sept 18 and 31 Dec 18 were: "Long term gold price US$1,250 per oz" and "Mine life 2019 to 2020". B2Gold has valued La Libertad to close next year, 2020. This provides a great opportunity for Condor to buy La Libertad plant and equipment and move to La India or B2Gold has to buy Condor.
By contrast El Limon Mine life is "2019 to 2030".
B2Gold released the FY 2018 audited report and accounts and the Managment Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) on the TSX last week. Filings on their website. There is a US$55M provision against La Libertad mine and in the note to the accounts the valuation is based on a life of mine "2019 to 2020". There is a US$34M environmental remediation provision of which US$3M is used this year. La Libertad will close next year. The All in sustaining cash costs "AISC' of $1,225 for La Libertad and $1,358 for El Limon for 2018 exclude cost of the head office in Country and Vancouver costs. Nicaragua was loss making for B2Gold during fiscal 2018.
Now it is official for anyone who can read a set of accounts. B2Gold is closing La Libertad next year and the operations are both loss making. The Group made a loss last year, the shares are off 10% since the results were announced. Condor's 2.4M oz gold in the ground is going no where, indeed will increase in value as gold hits $1,500 oz in 2020. B2Gold has the time pressure. Operating a 6,500tpd plant is costly. operating and G&A cost of US$20 per tonne exclude the mining costs. B2 produced 131,000 oz gold in Nicaragua in 2018 and lost money or at $1,250 oz gold, they had sales of US$164M and lost money. What would you do if you ran a business with revenues of US$164M and it lost money? What would your shareholders demand?
Roxgold is paying US$30M for an Inferred Resource of 5.8Mt at 2.3g/t Au for 430koz contained. That's US$70 per oz gold in the ground compared to US$10 per oz gold in the ground at La India Project. Note this is an inferred resource, the lowest category. No indicated resource, no reserve, no permits to construct a mine and it is in Ivory Coast. Expect more M&A with a higher gold price
NEWCREST has divested an Ivory Coast asset to Roxgold. It has agreed to sell its Seguela project and its portfolio of regional exploration tenements in Ivory Coast to Roxgold (ROXG CN, N/C). Roxgold is the operator of the Yaramoko underground mine in Burkina Faso which is guided to produce 145-155koz at AISC of US$765-795/oz this year. ROXG has agreed to pay US$20m upfront with a further US$10m on first gold production from the land package.
The Seguela project contains an Inferred Resource of 5.8Mt at 2.3g/t Au for 430koz contained at the Antenna deposit and the land package covers 3,298 km2.
The focus on MC's statement is doubling the feeder pit resource to 287,000 oz gold. Mestiza has 129,000 oz gold at 8.4g/t gold vs the main open pit resource of 900,000 at 3.0g/t gold. The latter has AISC $700 in a PFS so more than double the grade at Mestiza must be highly economic. Presumably this is what B2Gold want to put through La Libertad? MC has indicated in Nero's post, the head grade at Mestiza is 4 times higher than 1.19g/t gold head grade at La Libertad. There is enough gold to split the profit equally. Mestiza looks set to produce $130M to $140M gold sales
Seingred, charts show the last time Condor's share price was 30p higher was on 18 April, just before 45 people were killed over a 4 day period and a total of 325 people killed in a 4 month period, although it is now stable. the HUI gold bug index is down 18% in the same period, so the sector has been bad. My best guess as to why the share price has preformed so badly is: year end tax selling (for US, Canadians and Europeans who have a tax year end December), the gold exploration is out of favour and political uncertainty. Arguably, the corner has turned for all 3 reasons. lastly, the constant stream of negative comment from several posters on the BB is enough to deter the casual punter.
Spending $54M in Nicaragua isn't a sign of a Company looking to exit the Country, particularly $20M in pre-stripping and $11M on a tailings facility. B2Gold has signalled it is there to stay as it will require a return on the capital invested, which will take a few years. It makes a deal with Condor more likely. Condor is permitted to extra 600,000 oz gold, so a JV on toll refining to both El Limon and La Libertad makes sense for both companies. Condor has all the gold, 2.4M oz gold which could double to 5M oz gold and B2Gold has 2 producing mines. Just a matter of time before a deal of some sort
B2Gold's annual results Wed this week. $54M investment in Nicaragua in 2019. Money talks bullshit walks. B2Gold easily have trimmed sustaining capital and put new investment on hold. They can operate successfully in Nicaragua despite the politics, just like Fresnillo in Mexico and Randgold /Barrick in the Congo. Mining companies figure out to operate in difficult jurisdiction. Gold is a currency that provides collateral for financiers.
At El Limon they are investing $30M including $20M for pre-striping for a new open pit. La Libertad thy are investing $24M see details copied below
Sustaining capital costs for El Limon are budgeted to total $8 million in 2019, including $6 million in underground development and $1 million in processing spares and equipment. Non-sustaining capital is budgeted to total $23 million, including $20 million for pre-stripping costs for the Limon Central Pit and $2 million for processing plant improvements.
Sustaining capital costs for La Libertad are planned to total $24 million, including $11 million for the last raise of the tailings storage facility and $4 million for underground development. There is no non-sustaining capital budgeted for Libertad in 2019.
Calibre Mining has 100% of its exploration assets in Nicaragua and the shares are up 50% in the last few weeks on no news since 18 December 2018 when they put out a great drill results 8.04 meters at 10.92g/t gold and 859g/t silver giving a gold equivalent of 21.14g/t gold. IAMGOLD owns 51% of this Project and can get to 70% by spending a total US$10.9M. I guess owning 30% of a good Project is better than zero but I prefer not being a minority shareholder and think Condor's 100% ownership of better drill results e.g. 12 meters at 34g/t gold is far more attractive.
There are currently 2 feeder pits, America Open pit of 98,000 oz gold at 3.8g/t gold and Central Breccia of 58,000 oz gold at 1.9g/t gold. A total of around 156,000 oz gold in feeder pits outside the main La India open pit, which has the permit and a PFS. The 6,000m drilling on Mestiza may have added a new high grade feeder pit. With that 28g/t high grade, they could take the top 50 to 100 meters in a feeder pit?
Has an open pit resource been released on Mestiza? Looking at the website, the Mestiza Vein Set has has an underground mineral resource of 334,000 oz gold at 7.5g/t gold dated December 2014. Condor put in an additional 6,000 metres of drilling in 2017, excellent results 3.2m at 28 g/t gold, discovery of a high grade ore shoot. Presentations and interviews have discussed feeder pits...how big is the open pit on Mestiza?
La Prensa, a newspaper that is very outspoken about the President is positive on the CAO visit to La India
https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2018/11/22/suplemento/empresariales/2498670-delegacion-de-organismo-financiero-internacional-visita-el-proyecto-mina-la-india
Jobs, jobs, jobs and the community wants the Project. Condor is doing this the right way