Member Info for Agricore

Like some others here I've topped up today (albeit using money I top sliced just over a week ago at 1.16p).
I think what people have failed to appreciate here is the value of the NSR as well as the sum of the parts.
Today's market cap below >$9m
Sale of Aftan $13m
Aftan NSR of 2.5% revenue @ $160,000/tonne Tantalum & $22,500 Lithium Carbonate. The current JORC is 324.6KT.
Based on a pilot plant of 36 tonnes/year of each (3 tonnes/month) the profit to KZG is: $0.2m/year (2.5% x 36 X $22.5k and 2.5% x 36 x $160k)
Based on a full plant of 20KT (split 50/50 Lithium/Tantalum over 16 years life) the profit to KZG is $45m/year for 16 years assuming that no new discoveries are JORC upgrades over White City, Homestead and Purple Haze are made - which they probably would)
Plus: HMS @ £3.6m GP
Plus Inland Diamonds @ $12m GP
Plus Kenya REE project - no update either way as to whether this is proceeding or not.

People can bleat on about AIM cowboys and bad old days or whatever but the numbers are the numbers. And at today's price drop it is Christmas time once again! Fill yer boots!

GLA

Yet at the 2:15 minute mark the interviewer speaks to the debt JLP has taken on.
I agree his saying "no borrowing" was a mistake.

But you don't give a balanced view. The interviewer is partially correct in that it's also true that JLP is cash generative and that substantial amounts of cash from operations (£35m FY2022 and £37m FY2021) have been ploughed into growth while dilution accounts for (£35m FY2022 and £1m FY2021). Borrowing in FY2022 actually appears to net off against repayments of earlier borrowing rather than fund investment so the interviewer is correct in what he says from a certain point of view. The equity raises aren't countless either. You can't control when warrant holders exercise warrants or how many they convert but that is the way warrants work.

Overall, I thought the interview was positive and balanced and speaking to the end of the interview and the greatest gift of Christmas, I do hope Leon got some days of rest and quality time with his family ahead of a return in 2023 which I'm sure most of us look forward to with anticipation, hope.... and excitement.

GLA

I think there's reason to feel positive about Peru's prospects going forwards. Unemployment is falling, inflation is falling, GDP growth while not spectacular is at least positive. The new government of national unity strikes a fairly good balance between workers and business. Dina Boluarte is a "person of the people" like her old boss Castillo was, but isn't looking to pass whacky laws and instead is looking to build consensus. There are still protests, unrest and political arrests but these appear to be reducing.

Gold production in Peru hit 2 year highs in October 2022 (the last reported numbers) so things can get better. HOC do a lot of work in the community through its education involvement so it's not clear cut that "the people" will rise up and "hold HOC hostage" as has been suggested. I do appreciate an incident occurred previously although it's also true that the disruption was short lived and no substantial damage occurred. That suggests that HOC isn't seen locally as an aloof and hated capitalist exploiter. Probably people appreciate the jobs and positive impact it makes to the economy?

I do agree the share price is well below what it "should be". If 2023 sees peace and prosperity returning to Peru, while new mines in Brazil (Mara Rosa) diversify the risk then investors should be pleasantly rewarded for their patience. If I weren't already a holder here I'd be buying. As it is I have averaged down back when it was under 60p which means I'm close to b/e and with both silver and gold looking positive, and even Aclara posting a positive update HOC should see a much better 2023 too.

GLA

I wrote to Bushveld Investor Relations on the economics of Vanadium Electrolyte production costs and other matters and who have ignored every email. Based on information previously provided by BMN in their annual accounts these are my estimates:
Each 1MWH of electrolyte equates to around $900,000 revenue* and only consumes $159,500 of Vanadium.
($159,500 is based on 5.5 MTV per MWH x $29000 per MTV (and this is based on the 2020 AISC)).
(* this is based on a 5 MWH sale to Pivot Power for $4.5m in 2020)

On the face of it supremely profitable....... however I also noted that Bushveld Energy generated a loss in 2020 hence my email to try to reconcile the apparent profitable activity with the statutory loss.

GLA

New Investors Presentation dated December 2022. I particularly like Page 12 comparing Lucyd vs every other eyewear option:
https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=90423&ref=117137125&type=PDF&symbol=LUCY&companyName=Innovative+Eyewear+Inc.&formType=8-K&formDescription=Current+report+pursuant+to+Section+13+or+15%28d%29&dateFiled=2022-12-28&CK=1808377

This report from Shell underlines the key issues around sustainable fuel for shipping:
https://www.shell.com/business-customers/marine/decarbonising/_jcr_content/root/main/section/promo_copy_copy/links/item0.stream/1651646057912/b4878c899602611f78d36655ebff06307e49d0f8/decarbonising-shipping-report.pdf

The significance of today's announcement for Eddie Bauer is actually very interesting. You see both Nautica and Eddie are owned by the same parent. The Sparc Group. What other children does the Sparc group have?
Nautica have 1400 and Eddie 200 ...... The whole group have 3800 outlets pretty much worldwide, addressing different segments (young, outdoors, middle aged men etc).... Plus they own Reebok apparently (which has no own stores but of course are an eponymous brand)
https://www.sparcgroup.com/our-brands

Clearly there is a strategic association and the resulting sales growth which can come from this is substantial in my opinion.

Today's announcement of Lucyd Mark 2 eyewear with an improved 12 hour battery is significant too.

GLA

Unhooked, yes is the short answer.
But let me substantiate the yes.
Net Cash is £22.7m as at 30/09/22.
Forecast position as at 31/3/23 is it will drop to net cash £10.7m through a combination of FY23 Capex spend (-£15m) and Operating Cash Flow (-£9.7m)
Then FY2024 operating cash flow turns positive (per my post) however with Capex spend (-£12m) Net Cash drops to £4m as at 31/3/24.
Then FY2025 Capex grows but operational cash flow (£43.9m) outweighs i.e. net cash grows to £33.9m in FY25.

What could go wrong? Well, the plan is based around marine quadrupling in FY2024 but this only represents sales of about 1000 engines (£5m sales/£5k a unit) - so we know the demand is certainly there (e.g. Holland ban on diesel outboards) and that the supply (via Sunderland) is underway. The plan is around growth too of heavy vehicle sales (i.e. Conmet) so if that didn't develop fast enough, prototypes failed, safety sign off problems? It comes back to the due diligence and I just don't think Conmet would have partnered with Saietta if they felt there was concern it couldn't be achieved.

What could go right?
1/ Vic spoke recently of licensing the technology. Hint: licensing is inherently cash positive. None of that is currently factored in to any estimates
2/ 1000 engines/year? Does that seem quite low? Sunderland has 4 lines and previously produced 600k motors a year. It's not impossible to see a large step in volumes beyond a 1000... or another way to look at 1000/year is the scarcity value of demand outstripping supply perhaps could mean we see price rises from Saietta (Propel's price point is competitive to Torqeedo.... why?). Higher prices equals more cash.
Final 2 thoughts.
1/ The worst UK sector in 2022 was Automotive (-54%). Has Saietta dropped due to association? The EV/EBITDA should be around 10 but is currently 5 based on FY2024 forecast EBITDA and 0.66 based on FY2025. That equates to a 30 bagger. Even if the worst happened and let's say there 50% dilution you now have a 15 bagger on your hands. Those sorts of numbers are life changing for most people.
2/ Imagine the queue of businesses who would want to buy SED? If SED went bust I find it hard to believe the forced sale wouldn't generate over £45m (i.e. our current market cap)

https://m.drivesncontrols.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/7212/UK_axial-flux_motors_power_clean_outboard_motors_for_boats.html

More progress announced

Seahawk, CEZ which is like the Czech version of SSE owns 51% of the mine that's true. EMH owns 49%.
But if you refer to Page 36 "Chilean Mining Legislation" CTL owns 0% of its concessions. The Chilean Government own 100%. CTL has an explotation concession given by the Chilean Government.
https://*********************/companies/uk/industrial-metals-nonferrous/cleantech-lithium-plc/research/-fox-davies-capital/cleantech-lithium-ipo-research/98_022268b2-58aa-40e7-8c0e-adafd132710f

So "in charge" is a question of perspective I guess. Chile has a reasonably stable and sensible government and track record. But nothing is ever certain and bonkers governments can get voted in (as Britain knows too well!). The principle of "Don't kill the golden goose" hopefully keeps CTL and other miners reasonably safe.

GLA and a happy Christmas

I'm sure someone, somewhere has been able to reasonably dispute at least one thing you've ever written bluerill.

I offer a different explanation: The AGM (2 days ago) is often only attended by large shareholders. What happens at an AGM? Beyond the voting and formalities the progress of the company is discussed. Questions are asked. Companies have to be careful not to reveal market-sensitive info (which should be published in an RNS) but the subtlety of what's said, unsaid, nuanced, even to the point of a wink or two. Zvi twinkles when he presents so is quite easy to read. Also products can be demonstrated. I suggest that what attendees saw or heard something that made them buy in. Momentum starts to do the rest. BATM came up on a momentum alert (KST - know sure thing) this morning for me at 7.22am.

As I've previously pointed out, the fundamentals and prospects here (multiple shots at goal) are exciting and also viruses (computer and health) are a defensive play, which is recession proof and growing recurring revenue underpins the business, as does a pile of cash that the company is sitting on. What's not to like?

GLA and a happy Christmas

Hintza don't you know what the penalty is for advocating the death penalty for theft?

And if you were holding it at 22p like me you've already seen it triple bag :)
I top sliced at 61p but have since averaged up on the retracement to 40p.

It's interesting to look at how this compares to other Lithium plays. The valuation Fox Davies uses is EV/LCE.
CTL has an EV/LCE of 15 ($30/2MT). This compares to an average of 36 (comparing 7 Canadian/Australian/US listed peers). But bear in mind that the 2MT was 1.5MT a few months ago. By Q2 2023 the resource upgrades could take this to 3 or 4 MT. Which would make this an EV/LC of less than 10. European Metals (EMH) by comparison has a EV/LCE of 11.5 ($80/7.41MT). EMH is more than a bit bombed out at present at 38p, so was about 20 or so earlier this year.

Pre-production lithium miners have been pummelled this year. Hard to believe when their product is up 400%

GLA

BottomFeed, it's 2025 because in mining you don't just crack on and build a facility without first doing feasibility studies (PFS and DFS) and define the quantity of resources. Any definition of resource must be validated - the reports are dozens if not hundreds of pages long - it's not a case of just scribbling down a number. You need a pilot plant. You pilot it ($10m's) before committing $100m's.

Cannacord say it best that CTL compared to other Lithium plays is on a P/NAV of 0.14. This compares to an average P/NAV of 1. What does that mean? The share price should be £2.90 to be "average" to other Lithium projects. The NAV is the NET ASSET VALUE. NET ASSETS include cash. If CTL do do another fund raise that increases cash which increases the assets. So I'm not particularly scared by dilution. It's much more likely that some sort of offtake funding will happen. (E.G. a car company might say give us your first 20MT of lithium for $x/tonne and we'll give you some cash up front). The economics of brine extraction seem to be really exciting and more highly profitable. Also faster to build than other technologies. 2025 or 2026 for first production is fast (believe it or not). Don't invest in a hard rock lithium mine if you think DLE is slow!
Chile is a mining-friendly jurisdiction and the circumstances of no nimby's, green energy powered and circular nature of extraction makes this an easier project to get off the ground and relatively de-risked. I'm glad to be invested here.

GLA

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/20/european-markets-open-to-close-news-stocks-and-data.html
European banks make gains - European banks topped the Stoxx index Tuesday afternoon.
Germany’s Commerzbank led gains, up 8.7%, followed by Deutsche Bank, which was up 4.7% since the start of trading.
Banco BPM, Banco Sabadell, Caixabank, Bankinter and Banco Santander were all up at least 2.5% around 12.30p.m London time.
It comes after the Bank of Japan announced it would review its yield curve control policy. The central bank also opted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, bucking the global trend of hiking rates.

SP Angel have this listed as NAV of £6.4m or 4p a share. But what's it worth based on what we can piece together of its reported progress?

Microsalt have an agreement with Presty! aka Yabon Presty. Whose last reported turnover is é35m/year
https://www.infogreffe.fr/entreprise-societe/821410610-societe-nouvelle-yabon-verneuil-270216B008130000.html

Assuming that 10% of their turnover is ready meals (most are desserts) but that is growing at 100% a year. Then we are talking about 4m ready meals. Using the ratio of microsalt given by SP Angel (report 14th October) ($3 per 50lb bag and 1 bag per 197,000 meals) this only translates to about £4k of revenue per year. It's a nice start but it's not worth a whole lot - even if my numbers are out by a factor of 10.

What about Shakers and SaltMe? Well I can't find any evidence of Salt Shakers turnover but assuming the news they are selling via UNFI since 1st October 2022 then the Salt Shakers are being sold extensively across the US:
https://www.unfi.com/locations
Assuming they can get much higher margins selling a salt shaker at say $0.40 wholesale ($1.20 RRP) then 10 million units translates to $4m turnover and maybe $2m profit a year, and growing.

Salt Me! - I've gone on line and a 150g bag of "potato chips" sells for $4. Seems dreadfully expensive and 240 calories per ounce (28g). So low in salt and it's high in calories! Of 200 or so "low sodium" products at Krogers the Salt Me! appeared when I searched about 100th suggesting they are selling in good quantity but not nearly their top seller. They are above the stock cubes and below the pasta sauce to give you an idea. So perhaps worth up to $0.5m profit a year? (You'd like to think a fair chunk of that $4 is profit for both us and for Krogers?!!!)

So what if you could get a bigger contract than Presty! Well that's where it *should* get interesting. Worldwide ready meals category are $138bn a year. So say Microsalt could address 5% of that. At $3/lb of microsalt and 115mg per meal that translates to $1.3m turnover. I'm assuming $4 per meal so $138bn/4 and divide by 20 to get 5%, then divide by 197000 meals/bag and multiply by $5k (per bag revenue). $1.3m seems ludicrously low. Let's just say each meal pays 1c to Microsalt for the right to be branded low sodum aka green traffic light on the food label. That equates to $17.25m revenue..... that seems more like it to me, don't you agree? Or 2 cents would be $34.5m.

SP Angel also say that the Sodium Reduction market is worth an estimated $5.5bn in 2022. Given the ratio of selling Microsalt at $3/lb and using 115mg per meal seems way off. It does seem logical that selling a customer facing product (salt shakers) rather than an ingredient (salt in a ready meal) should attract much higher margins.

So to conclude I could see how the 72% of Microsalt owned by TEK could be floated for at least 4p/share, probably more.

Jatw, I can see where you're going with that thought. I agree there's likely zero end user brand synergy but that wasn't my point. We agree on administrative synergy so let's explore the other 2.

1. Let's imagine Dentyl has 12 reps covering the UK. Let's imagine HL Healthcare had 12 reps covering the UK. Both selling into their own accounts. VLG acquires HL. VLG makes 6 HL reps redundant and the other 6 start selling Dentyl as well as Earol. The 12 Dentyl folks start selling Earol as well as Dentyl.

Result? Synergy.

2. Production Synergy. I have 2 VLG factories running at 60% capacity making products like Dentyl. They start making Earol. The fixed costs are say £1m a year. Because Earol is now 25% of my production the fixed cost attributed to Dentyl etc dropped by £250k.

Result? Synergy.

I don't factually know these exact values of synergy so the examples are an oversimplication and educated guesses but hopefully my point about 3 types of synergy is now clearer.

GLA

Billy, I only used the "as at 30/6/22" so your numbers are more accurate.
And even more reason the warrants don't explain the low share price.

As at 30/06/22 there were 123 943 501 (about 4% of shares in issue). Of which 48m are Directors' warrants (about 2%).
Some were issued in 2021 so I disagree with them being wholly "historic".
Although it seems a bit of a storm in a tea cup to think warrants are the reason for a depressed share price.
You show me a mining share that's at 12 month highs, let alone at 36 month highs.

Keithb1 look on the bright side, we're all ageing at the same rate.

The other bright side is MTR announced 14/12/22 a rise in its NAV for 30/11/22 from 15.9p to 19.1p
A 20% rise which hasn't reflected on AIM.
MTR today on the ASX is AUD 0.36 which is 20.3p by my reckoning.
Roaring along down under, at least