Member Info for Agricore

Unhooked, I've been averaging down here and am now at about £1.40. I am very comfortable holding this even at a current ~30% loss. I similarly averaged down on QFI and that has shot up into profit on recent news in the past few days. “The world is full of foolish gamblers and they will not do as well as the patient investors.” quoting Charlie Munger.

Poppyseed, more importantly (I think) Page 16 of the Align Research gives a more comprehensive answer to the 10X: "There is a plant, mine and ore reserves in place. The multi-year offtake deal is with a large Chinese manufacturer, which has plans to develop two more super plants. Underground mining can be costly, but through the drilling programme the team has realised that they do not have to go underground as there are sufficient resources available for open pit mining. So, mine production is being restarted based on lower cost surface mining. Using a portion of the $7.5m investment, the mine will now be upgraded and brought back into production using borehole water and improved water retention techniques which will result in decent cash flows being generated within months. The US$7.5 million investment will allow the company to rebuild a state-of-the-art plant with the ability to process over 10x more tantalum per month with reduced water and power."

Agricore > I also note the indicated and inferred Tantalum is 62,700 tonnes @ current market price of $160,000/tonne is worth $10bn in revenue. If the surface mining cost is $25,000/tonne so the "profit" is $135k per tonne then the 10X ($750k/month) equates to about 66 tonnes a year or less than 0.1% of the 62,7000 tonnes! Even if they are selling it at 50% of market price ($80k/tonne) then it's 163 tonnes a year being mined or 0.2% of the total! So it seems to be they should/could aim for 100X or 1000X!!!!! (So don't be asking for dividends people, we want growth!) If they got the mine to 100X (generating $90m EBITDA/year) it could still take between 50-100 years to mine it out!!!!

The licence expires in 2026 so I've reached out to KZG to ask what happens in 2026?

By the way, we haven't spoken even about the lithium which is worth more than the tantalum! (Albeit our investor gets 51% of the Li profits) GLA! No dividends remember, eh?

There are plenty of tech examples that have halved or worse:
1. SMT
2. IPO
3. GROW
4. SUPP
5. USA
6. CHRY
7. HRI
8. Anything else tech for Baillie Gifford
I could go on....

Baf3, or put another way, if even a single 1 of the 5 succeed (and the other 4 fail) then TEK is valued conservatively today.
Inconceivable, but another way of highlighting the value here.

Top up today at 17.4p; having just returned from the US and spoken to some folks around automated mobility I consider TEK a bargain at this price.

SD, That's not true for the Transferwise component of CHRY. That's more than doubled from around £3 to over £7 over the past couple of months. Once you strip out cash and listed holdings the discount is actually far higher than 60%.

Re VPC's discount, share price drops on holdings like VPC are partly down to the relative yield now achieved from "risk free" (!) gilts. Since this is purportedly higher risk it needs a correspondingly higher yield to compensate holders. Ergo, high yielding shares are behaving like bonds - and that's why this trades on a discount to NAV, in my opinion.

GLA

Unhooked, I topped up yesterday and reading this morning’s update I’m very glad I did !

Hi Archie, I’ve averaged down today and remain pretty positive about TENT. Cop27 is around the corner and under Jeremy Hunt we appear to have a more balanced thoughtful approach to the economy. I saw there are plans (finally) to encourage Energy efficiency. This should be positive here.

Bear in mind, too, that 83k cobalt and 1.325mt nickel is only what we know of so far at Wowo. If the recoverable resource were 10X that..... the royalty applies to that too.

I think the point that everyone is missing is that Wowo alone is sitting on 83,000 tonnes of cobalt and 1,325,000 tonnnes of nickel worth $33.5bn at today's prices (which are low). Assuming a $10k* cost per tonne there's plenty of profit to make a listing very attractive. (*See
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/nickel-industry-margins-surged-in-2021-amid-stronger-nickel-prices) So if a Singapore listing is successful and even if this leads to dilution even a 99% dilution means the profit attributed to Corcel will be substantial (plus for Mambare)
But what no one seems to have appreicated is the 1.5% gross royalty has **** NO DILUTION****** it's worth $502m and so once even 1/1000th of Wowo has been mined that's worth about 25% of today's market cap ($0.5m).
.....Plus Dempster, plus Doncella, and who knows maybe the flexibile grid solutions will come good too.

So even if they were giving Wowo away (and who knows through dilution it may feel that way) - the royalty is worth it's weight in err nickel and cobalt.

GLA

Unhooked - True. Never before has the market experienced such a swing in both directions in a single day since they started tracking for this in 1990.

The economy is proving to be extremely resilient and while the media keep foretelling doom I'm not seeing it in my business nor do I see it in any of my customers' businesses. Yes there is inflation and disruption but these are being absorbed and partly passed on. The market seems obsessed with "bad is good and good is bad" approach to await the fed pivot. It's ignoring everything else and missing the value.

Easy to say with hindsight, but it would have been good to start with the KCB and leave higher risk/higher return options like the KSZ for the future. As it is, we have - now.

I'm very hopeful for the next few weeks and longer term too. KAV has proven they've innovated and found ways to find targets without drilling expensive holes, so eked out cash reserves. I'd said it before but will say it again. Imagine if they get a farm out at the KCB that injects either a wodge of cash or a farm out ongoing income. KAV can make a couple of £m go a long, long way. That for me is the really exciting prospect. Possibly there'll be a big sell off and shake out once the price recovers. If people sell on breaking even or taking profits they're missing the actual value here - which is the capabilities of the KAV team combined with the extensive ground in Botswana that they hold.

Arix’s nav quietly rises 11p in the month to £1.89
So at a 106p ask today you pay 4p for 87p of biotech listed and unlisted holdings net of cash

Very exciting to learn more about IPO's deep tech. It's insane for IPO to be on such a steep discount. 57% discount to NAV.
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/technology-trailblazers

Threre's no major shorts (https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/companies/)
45% of the shares are IIs so take your pick which of those are offloading. I somehow doubt PIs are offloading in their droves.

Amati recently offloaded something... hmm.. what did they offload? It might've been Eqtec (EQT). If I've got that right they did so at a bonkers price far below its target price - and likely below their buy price. Not unlike here. So if I had to guess.... They hold 6.08m shares (5.24%). Or held? The rules say they will have to declare when they dropped below 3% but I think they can keep quiet (from an RNS point of view) until they hit that point.

I felt today's presentation was entirely positive. A palpably frustrated Board and you can see them itching to say much more than their NOMAD will have set out as permissable.

GLA

>> didn't see today's big dip coming . As many have mentioned, does look like bad management.
It baffles me quite how a completed but uneconomic drill result is "bad management".
What did the managers do badly on this drill exactly?

>> It must be time for an interview from JA. Give him a wake up call. But can he be bothered?
This manic hyperactive hunger for constant news baffles me too. It's what about a month since they did an extensive update. They have carried out the 2 drills they said they would in what seems to me a timely manner. Why don't you take your money to something like POW? They provide a barrage of updates and RNS. You'd be like a pig in swill.

Meanwhile there's positive news (at last) on Tunisia. Tunisia is a much bigger fish than Romania based on their 2P reserves but even more so their 2C. More European gas would've been nice but that's life. Given the Romanian windfall taxes, focusing on Tunisia isn't a bad idea.

Today's drop seems an overreaction. We didn't get a possible coin bag, but a fat wallet is a few months away. I'm sitting on zero cash but would have averaged down today on the market overreaction. The analysts have marked this one down from 53p TP to 50p are remain bullish.

Sorry I meant Aura not Aurus. Reading a little more about this, it's one of ARIX's big shots on goal. It's to do with eye cancer (choroidal melanoma). I believe the treatment means they don't need to remove your eye(s) in the case of eye cancer. Wow. Never even heard of this as a thing. About 850 cases a year in the UK alone.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/eye-cancer/#:~:text=Melanoma%20of%20the%20eye,-Melanoma%20is%20cancer&text=Eye%20melanoma%20most%20commonly%20affects,the%20eye)%20or%20the%20eyelid.
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/eye-cancer#heading-Zero
Encouragingly, the feedback is really good:
“The Phase 2 interim safety and efficacy data that was presented at AAO is very encouraging for patients with primary choroidal melanoma, as the majority of patients are diagnosed with early-stage disease and have no vision-preserving treatment options. Interim data showed a statistically significant reduction in tumor growth rate and a robust tumor control response with a high rate of visual acuity preservation at the therapeutic regimen,” said Dr. Ivana Kim, Director of the Ocular Melanoma Center, Massachusetts Eye and Ear.

1. NAV as at 31 August 22: £1.78 vs £1.76 MoM
2. SP £1.04 today vs £1.12 a month or so ago.
3. Cash accounts for £1.005 per share of the £1.04 share price!
4. Listed holdings as at 31/8 accounted for £0.32 per share
5. So you're getting listed companies at a 87.5% discount plus 45.5p of unlisted companies for free.

6. By the way, one of those listed companies LogicBio just got bought out at a 6x share price ($2.07). Sadly ARIX held $0.2m as at 30/6/22 so presumably the NAV has just increased by ~£1.1m so about a 0.5% increase to NAV

7. LOGICBIO bought out by AZN:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alexion-astrazeneca-rare-disease-to-acquire-logicbio-therapeutics-to-accelerate-growth-in-genomic-medicine-301638676.html

8. Meanwhile AURUS presents interim phase 2 data:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/arix_bioscience/news/rns/story/xqg3jqw

https://www.ii.co.uk/secure/my-news-feed/analysis-commentary/top-10-most-popular-investment-trusts-september-2022-ii525493

#8 position, suggests the vast dislocation of value here and extreme bearishness/sell off is leading to people cottoning on to the value here.

GLA

On Twitter there's a daily infographic from Corcel almost every day in September. Then on the 26th September they stop.
Perhaps the marketing person went on holiday? Or perhaps there's material news and they can't share the daily infographics due to a pending event which "changes everything" (e.g. a buy out offer)? Intriguing possibility?

The price to book (PB) is only 1, and the book is what they bought the concessions for which we know was v.cheap. (Or in the case of WoWo it was woah! woah!). WHI and Align put the "fair value" at 20x-28x it's current market price. Looking at the major share holders there's only Base Asia 9.5%, Align 6.4%, Winterflood 3.3%, Monecor 3.2%, Arlington 3.1%
= 27.5%, Directors hold 3.5% so 69% is PIs. That's good because I think they'd get >50% of votes at something like a 4x to 5x to current price. Even if we don't get a return on investment, most people I'm guessing would be happy at this point with a return of investment!