Member Info for Agricore

Mammon,

initially I thought surely not regarding your post on decreasing copper yields but my own analysis concurs with yours but I'd also add that the energy input per unit has also increased (plus the energy cost per unit of course). So processing tailings is far less energy intensive particularly if a chemical approach to extraction can be used (as seems the case). This should make JLP more profitable compared to other sources of copper. This link illustrates the point around decreasing yields:

"Analyzing only copper mines, the average ore grade has decreased approximately by 25% in just ten years. In that same period, the total energy consumption has increased at a higher rate than production (46% energy increase over 30% production increase).
https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/5/4/36#:~:text=Analyzing%20only%20copper%20mines%2C%20the,over%2030%25%20production%20increase).

Also worth noting that the MTR share price in Oz is A$0.27 as of 25/11/22 and at 1.79:1 that's 15.1p.
Over 6 months (May 22 to now) the AUD price has dropped A$0.32 to A$0.27 so about 15%. The UK price 17.5p to 11.25p about 35%.......

In other words UK-specific negativity explains the price weakness rather than any company-specific info.....
I'm seeing the same negativity in other similar UK shares and ITs. There's been so much negativity in the press and crisis after crisis, I'm not all that surprised MTR is doing badly and I think lots of UK investors have got out of the stock market in 2022.

I'm anticipating the 2023 narratives of "fed pivot", "milder than expected recession", "China's bounceback" and "renewed efforts for energy transition" will all support metals prices... any of those narratives means MTR moves to a 20p-30p range in my opinion.

GLA

Legowig, Growth aka Jam tomorrow shares are off the menu. Green shares are off the menu. Miners are off the menu.

Why? Fear of recession for growth. Disappointment with progress on COP26/27 and shoot oneself in the foot green taxes. Low Tin prices.

I remain a large shareholder here and recently topped up/averaged down to 5.1p which I'm very pleased with. The disconnect in value is astonishing. But patience is required.

Warno, you’re right that predicting the Ukraine crisis was beyond ST’s control but the tech was objectively overvalued - like yourself I was taking 50%+ off the table on stocks like this one in late 2021

TopCatz the cash as at 30/09 I actually $2m above the book value of Lucy investees (29% of $10.01m market cap is $2.9m vs $4.9 cash …. Further assuming that the IP, patents, Vyrb and stock/inventory are only worth zero)

Increasing retail/wholesale penetration, the nautica deal, repeat orders from existing retail/ wholesale are all other reasons to feel optimistic

As for this being a growth stock vulnerable to a recession I’d question that. When the ticket price is about $200 it’s not dissimilar to “normal “ glasses prices ….. so isn’t a prescription glasses an essential purchase? Looking at essilor luxxotica that’s a recession proof stock for example

Gla

Over 90% shall - and did vote for the scheme .

It seems likely that we will see about 33.4p per share on around 7th December. Taking into account dividends I’m just above break even and commiserations to others who were led to this share by Simon Thompson . Least we can close the chapter

Jolly,
>> "admin costs here are monstrous v revenue (let alone neg gross)"

For 2022E operating costs (which include admin) are forecast to be $6.5m. Revenue forecast to be about $3.5m.... so in your opinion a $3m excess of costs, for a start up business in its early years, with a huge market demand, and a rapidly growing production base is "monstrous"?? It's an odd phrase to use. Do you actually understand how businesses work?

FCF positive is forecsat in 2024. Cash is $15.6 and FCF dips to about $5-6m before turning positive. So yes, there is visibility.

Hi Troyto, I can't argue with your logic on this. There is a slowly, slowly catchy monkey approach to GEEC's growth and while the pipeline will improve price and profitability the prohibitive cost of debt means even a $20m drill program seems ambitious. A farm in does solve the problem.

It's interesting looking at the underlying listed shares here and REVB doubled from its lows. THG same. TRST same. WISE same. So this was at £2 a year or so back and what has actually changed? Interest rates, outlook, sentiment. But all these holdings are getting on with growing and succeeding and becoming cash positive and profitable. I think today's jump is the start of a realisation of that truth. CHRY hasn't doubled from its lows and even if you bake in all kinds of bad news that demonstrably isn't happening and hasn't happened then it's still cheap applying 40% discount of X and 40% on Y.
This should have plenty more runway to continue to return towards its previous premium to NAV position.

Averda serve 34 cities and employ 15000 people. They will use (i.e. licence) WasteFuel's technology to reduce CO2 emissions by 90%. The specifics of the deal will be announced later. So this will probably be some kind of showcase and proof of concept and probably the commercial value of the sale of the technology in and of itself possibly won't be all that exciting - but the follow on sales could be.

The point is Averda is a serious waste management player and have chosen WasteFuel's technology. Shore Capital give this a positive write up and underline the overlooked value here. NAV of 70p a share so putting this at a 73% discount to NAV.

Much as I love SUP and see its potential as it expands into continental Europe over the coming years, I think some sort of expansion to India is a fool's errand where the big boys (IMB etc) are already there. The market size is 0.3m people which isn't that big either:
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/india-e-cigarette-market#:~:text=Presently%2C%20India%20has%20over%200.3,%2Dcigarette%20accessories%2C%20mainly%20refills.

.... if you want a good share for opportunity in India then look at either SED or GEEC (or both :) ).
eTukTuks or Indian Shale (without the protests) plus Gas/Shale - many TCF of reserves . Both serious multi bag potential.

GLA

Days are shorter, lights are on for more hours.
Torches are prepared for possible winter blackouts.
The bad news everywhere is stressing people out, they puff on a vape to relieve the stress.
They go out and buy some household goods to fill some stockings.
They buy some vitamins because of winter weather chills.

Have a supreme Xmas!

Hi all, I've bought back in here sub 14p. Much as I love dividends surely the 2023 and 2024 earnings are going to pour into capital costs for Toliara? It's 2.5x the size of Kwale (which is nearly mined out, 2 years left unless they can extend the claim), will require circa $660m capital (some of this number may be Kwale's sustaining capital) and 1st quartile for costs, & NPV $815m..... lots to like!

In today's world of increasing cost of capital surely Base aren't going to distribute and then borrow (at high rates) but instead retain the cash now?

Be interested to know your thoughts, as I'm assuming not to get a 6% yield per quarter.

GLA

Apologies if this has already been shared:
$4.5/oz measured & indicated vs the current EV of Pasofino tells you how cheap this is!

https://s26.q4cdn.com/952577408/files/doc_presentations/2022/10/Pasofino-corporate-presentation.pdf

Gkeko, as a substantial TEK investor and BELL investor I'd like to offer an explanation for "Lovely rise in BELL so no reason" in your words.

>>>>>> MY POST TAKEN FROM BELL LSE BOARD:
It baffles me that I'm the first person to post this here: https://youtu.be/3HiYoWv7U8Q

I would encourage you to watch this "Be Inspired" video of Bob Rauker which is 6 days old. In my opinion that explains today's 19% rise. (Anyone else offering an alternative perspective?!). I think Bob excels in this interview and bless him "What do you like doing outside of work? I have 2 kids 20 and 23, 4 dogs and 3 cats. I enjoy what I do here. You'll find me here on weekends. I enjoy this technology".

I think so much of what Bob presents is simple honest-to-goodness reasons why an investment will come good here. The need is there. The product is there. The passion is there. (Thanks to Bob messing around on his weekends. I hope his dogs and cats are ok?).

If you want to trust your money to someone who lives, breathes and messes around on his weekends to sweat your money, Bob exemplifies why BELL is a great source for our money. Good on yer Bob. A simple "honest to goodness" interview can drive a stock price 19% even if it's just - hey - this is what we are, this is what we're doing.... anyone who gets we dropped our prices because "Medicare/NHS funding is just X amount" understands its consumer.

I can explain today's 19% increase. Do you have a better explanation? I am convinced. But tell me.... In Bob Rauker's words "Do you have a better pivot?"

It baffles me that I'm the first person to post this here: https://youtu.be/3HiYoWv7U8Q

I would encourage you to watch this "Be Inspired" video of Bob Rauker which is 6 days old. In my opinion that explains today's 19% rise. (Anyone else offering an alternative perspective?!). I think Bob excels in this interview and bless him "What do you like doing outside of work? I have 2 kids 20 and 23, 4 dogs and 3 cats. I enjoy what I do here. You'll find me here on weekends. I enjoy this technology".

I think so much of what Bob presents is simple honest-to-goodness reasons why an investment will come good here. The need is there. The product is there. The passion is there. (Thanks to Bob messing around on his weekends. I hope his dogs and cats are ok?).

If you want to trust your money to someone who lives, breathes and messes around on his weekends to sweat your money, Bob exemplifies why BELL is a great source for our money. Good on yer Bob. A simple "honest to goodness" interview can drive a stock price 19% even if it's just - hey - this is what we are, this is what we're doing.... anyone who gets we dropped our prices because "Medicare/NHS funding is just X amount" understands its consumer.

I can explain today's 19% increase. Do you have a better explanation? I am convinced. But tell me.... In Bob Rauker's words "Do you have a better pivot?"

They'll only cash in if you sell StarKnight!

Bitter experience has taught me that the time to stampede is not during a stampede.

TheBoyG. Happy new year.

Shame you had to sell at a low point

Perhaps ChrisJones is someone looking to drive the stock down last week knowing an offer would be made today. I'm glad I topped up on TPG last week believing that the services division still offere dvalue and now stand to almost break even on today's 2.25p.

I've been with this since Corac over 12 years ago. It's been emotional. I'm glad to get 2.25p and to get out.

Absolutely. The quality of people that TEK are able to attract is always "punching above their weight". I guess the reason someone who is a senior ex-Sainsbury's Director, OBE for services to food and farming, joins Microsalt is that they really believe in the product and the values and the good that can come from their involvement in its success.

Same can be said for Guident's leadership, and TEK's. I can't speak for BELL however I expect the same is true there also.