Member Info for Agricore

Well said Faceman.

Sfor's customers are (quietly) doing well. I see recession on the news and in PMI surveys - but I don't see it in my business dealings nor in very many of the company quarterlys and trading updates in the daily RNSs (I don't read every single one!). Nor do I see it when I'm out and about in major UK Cities.
Have we been talked into a belief in recession but that that's not actually the case? Do we have nothing to fear but fear itself.... and the market is starting to realise this and are creeping back into positions (like here) which on any kind of measurement are stupidly cheap?

GLA

What strikes me is how impressive all that is - built with what a few million quid? That can generate a substantial gross profit, and that is carbon negative. It's a COP20something's wet dream! As investors the progress has been frustrating but as investors can we see the jigsaw pieces coming together nicely? You bet!

Valuation thoughts:
I'm loathe to put a risk around my forecasts but let's put it at 33%. So $6m PBT based on a PE of just 8 equates to a market cap of $48 which would put fair value of these shares at 4p/share. The 4p assigns no value to the REE project (still under negotiation) and derisked fair value is 12p/share. (12 bagger)

1. $13m Cash receipts from Xinjian for the sale of the Lithium/Tantalum holding. (Cash equals 133% of the current share price… i.e. 1.2p cash/share). The carrying cost of Aftan was $1.8 million so there is an $11.2m profit on disposal – assume sale is “booked” in 2023.
2. 60% Inland Diamonds from Deep Blue Minerals (Alexcor) (2023 GP $1.2m; 2024 GP $2.4m*)
3. 60% Coastal Diamonds from Whale Head (2023 GP $2.4m; 2024 GP $4.8m*)
4. 60% HMS from Whale Head (2023 GP circa $3.6m; 2024 GP circa $10.8m**)
5. 2.5% NSR for Tantalum/Lithium from Xinjian (2023 GP $0.5m; 2024 $2.4m***)
6. 8% interest on o/s from Xinjian will be worth about $0.4m (End of Jan $9.3m x 8% x ½ assuming paid throughout 2023)
7. Rare Earth Elements from Great Lakes Graphite in Kenya (71% exposure falling to 51%). Inferred (non-JORC) value of $3.3bn (so $1.68bn to KZG…. This alone would be a 187 bagger at today’s market cap)
8. Overheads @ $2m

2022 Profit – Breakeven?
2023 Profit $17.3m
2024 Profit $18.4m

* - Assumes a 2nd pan plant and expansion in 2024
** - Separation plant is purchased in 2023 and commissioned by end of H1 2024 (i.e. FY2025 doubles again - or more including neighbouring beach)
*** - 2023 based on Xinjian producing 1 tonne/month. 2024 based on 5 tonnes/month @ $160/Kg x 2.5%. Bear in mind the JORC indicated/inferred for the 3 sites is 111,000 tonnes of Tantalum and 213,600 tonnes of lithium. So if they can grow to produce 2,000 tonnes/month (i.e. 10 year mine life) then 2.5% of that revenue put KZG on a 100+ bagger too.

For the shares to have been sub 1p before suspension on the back of the sale of Aftan I don't think people realise how valuable its holdings appear to be, and what a shrewd deal has been struck.

Cost of production are always going to be a challenge although oil is now almost half its 2022 high and "mining inflation" seems to now be under control. Perhaps, too, we will see a silver price exceed $25 this year (meaning new hedging at decent levels?)

Meanwhile the smart money is investing into Peru and 2022 investment is up year on year (albeit only slightly up on 2021):
https://www.mining.com/mining-investments-on-the-rise-in-peru/

GLA

When you think of the forthcoming news you have:
1. Good news on Diamonds from Alexcor (Inland)
2. Good news of HMS from Whale Head
3. Good news of Diamonds from Whale Head
4. Good news on NSR from NSR for Tantalum/Lithium
5. $13m Cash receipts from Xinjian for the sale of the Lithium/Tantalum holding. $0.75m imminent. 8% levy on o/s creditors. Worth £0.012p (33% above today's price)
6. REE Kenya 71% exposure still ongoing. Due to close in 2023

Happy new year all

If you take a 6 month view of Sandfire and Cobre both are trading well above 6 months ago (albeit Cobre peaked in Sep and dropped since. Another less large holding Southern Gold has dropped.

But today's jump is only bringing us closer to the MTR NAV value. We are still over 20% discount to December 2022 NAV (19.1p a share) and remember January's NAV is out next Friday too.

The 2 pieces of news this week that China is reopening post covid as well as restoring trade with Australia has also probably helped MTR (specifically the story was with Iron Ore but it is positive for other metals too). With lots of news flow and seemingly a more positive air in 2023 more to come too!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/1002341/riversgold-eyes-bigger-slice-of-rare-earths-pie-aims-to-begin-mt-weld-drilling-this-quarter-1002341.html?rel=scroll

Best explanation I can think of is what Align also says: that Riversgold have found themselves delayed on their current projects so rather than twiddle their thumbs have committed A$0.5m of their *time* (£280k) plus A$0.03m (£17k). Having received 50m shares in Corcel nominally worth £200k (but worth £133k at today's price), there's the added incentive that they can get that money back if they can inject some positivity into an otherwise bombed out share, and liquidate their position. (i.e. if the share doubles or triples on sentiment)

Perhaps too there is interest in WoWo and/or Mambare and an extension to the same sort of deal is in the offing? If we got 50% of WoWo and 20% of Mambare the dilution might be worthwhile?

I notice Align have perked up all of a sudden but were unable to cover or comment on CRCL over the past months due to a pending announcement (which must have been Riversgold). Perhaps too Align are planning to offload their CRCL holding to Riversgold?

At least things are moving - that's a positive, right?

GLA

If you search on Amazon (seriously) then you can find engines for $2k but these are poxy small things so my own understanding is $5k+ for any boat above a tiny dinghy - which is pretty much every boat. There's also the question of fuel prices of petrol, diesel and electricity. Also for electric, the cost (therefore range) of the battery is a big factor. Also maintenance costs. This is a really good link which compares:
https://www.greenboatsolutions.com/blog/electric-vs-combustion

* leaves £7m of KDNC's current market capitalisation

Put another way if you consider that Evergreen, EMH and Hastings are collectively worth £11m (7p) (at current listed albeit locked in or soon to be listed) then that leaves £7m. WH Ireland assume a 20% chance of success as "standard" which they acknowledge is conservative based on this being a brownfield restoration rather than greenfield build - so NPV of $870 gives $261 share to KDNC so 20% is $52m or £42m. So 1/6 of its pessimistic value (or 1/30 of its net present value)
.... and by the way Sonora is not included in those numbers!
.... and assumes Evergreen, EMH and Hastings are not undervalued either

Whichever way you look at this it, the only thing keeping this down is investor impatience/ignorance.

GLA

Hi Unhooked, happy new year to you.

Regarding Marine Engines I would describe most (but not all) boaters to be above middle class. In other words not prohibitively affected by the cost of living crisis. But let's say half are unaffected and let's furthermore say that we are only speaking of Holland (where SED's marine sales are focused).
There are 500,000 boats in Holland. So let's say half would upgrade once every 15 years. That's 16,000 engines a year.
Source: https://www.angloinfo.com/how-to/netherlands/lifestyle/sports-leisure/sailing-boating

Plus all of Amsterdam's canal boats (12000 of them) have to upgrade to electric in the next 2 years.
So the (market size) numbers appear to be there. It's whether SED can get a 5%-10% slice of those numbers in Holland - or indeed elsewhere. Doesn't seem too much of a stretch. But as you say SED need to show the numbers...... I suppose the point is the share price won't be at 58p once they do!!

Happy new year all.
The negative is the depressed prices and losses many (all?) of us are sitting on. (Unless you're a troll or a bot, then you are hopping from foot to foot in delight at all those KAV mugs)
The positive is renewed funding (via dilution) including warrants to fund further exploration as we see start to see success. (if we see success?). The positive is there are a number of other Botswana miners who *have* found success in the KCB, including a direct neighbour (Sandfire) who has shared some mining data which appears to show contiguous seam of metal from their land to KAV's. The positive is CSAMT which we hope is a cut price way to hone in on finds and if it does what it says on the tin then this core competence will be worth a great deal for us but more widely to one of the majors who may take KAV out at a price too good for us hard pressed investors to ignore. The positive is the multiple shots at goal in 2023: KCB. KSZ. Ditau. The positive is a JV agreement which will propel KAV to the big leagues... possibly.
The positive is that there are some positives. We can bemoan the share price, snipe at BT's enthusiasm, or we can hope for one or more positives that transform KAV prospects in 2023.
I remain positive here.

GLA in 2023

What I'd add here out of today's RNS is that the DCF of 10% and IRR of 34% are very strong numbers. At a DCF of 8% the IRR would be closer to 40%.

It's not a world record but it's extremely decent. The 16p "valuation" for the 30% of Amapa doesn't really reflect this value either. So it's not true to say that KDNC would necessarily be "fairly valued" even if it reverted to the sum of its parts (SOTP) of 23.1p.

This is true of Amapa but also of EMH which is trading at 35p today and is hugely undervalued too (relative to its IRR of 28.8% in Jan 2022 upgraded to IRR 33% in Nov 2022 due to process simplication and resource upgrades. Target price 184p WH Ireland which would equal further 12p/share to KDNC i.e. KDNC SOTP = 35.1p/share )

Happy new year all.

Blockades have certainly occurred elsewhere in Peru with other miners (Source: SP Angel's newsletters) and have been disruptive but the one-off break in was reported by HOC as an RNS and the detail they reported was all that I could find (i.e. it didn't make the news).

Happy new year all.

@gotreal, adding to your points the sale of Cobalt (at $50k+/tonne) in 2023, the growing (back) value of PGMs and even copper has reverted back towards $9k/tonne. The combination of volume and value, but yes the leaching process too, should place Jubilee in a stronger position in 2023. If metals e.g. copper turn up sharply.... or should that be when (?) Jubilee is well positioned to enjoy upside but is reasonably insulated to the downside (i.e. it processes tailings and doesn't mine) if there is downside to metals prices.

To expect JLP to drop to 6p in 2023 seems like bluster, but I'm fascinated to hear Bushytail's logic as the 10p prediction was entirely correct. The logic for the 10p prediction was apparently "Falling basket prices, falling production, rising costs... zero sum capex and massive dilution, oh and Colin Bird running off with his cash after dumoing on you at 16p". I have no idea what "Colin Bird dumoing on you" involved but at least we can be cheerful that that can't happen again in 2023!

Happy new year all and here's to a Jubil-ee-ant 2023.

Today PDS is trading at $12.04/share valuing it at $344m and NSCI's 4.72% at £13.5m vs today's market cap for NSCI of £18m (total)
Yet according to WH Ireland PDS is only 26% of NSCI's portfolio (26% of £18m is £4.5m). So ignoring all other parts of the portfolio today's price suggests a £9m upside or 38.2p upside to the share price.
PDS FORECAST
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/pdsb/analyst-research
Taking the average of the analysts and the future price of $17/share this suggests a 29% upside to PDS which is a further 11p per share upside.

So NSCI should be at £1.12 - £1.25 based on PDS's value, assuming that the rest of the portfolio is already fairly valued (which of course it isn't). The Phase 2 anecdotal evidence of 18 months life extension for people with HPV advanced cancers is the reasons for yesterdays and today's jump.

Slightly pointing out the obvious that this is a Nasdaq publicly listed share so theoretically NSCI could sell the lot and hand shareholders the proceeds worth 57p a share at today's prices.

GLA

Couple of things reading the accounts:
1. Whales Head (40%) and Deep Blue (10%) are in the FY2022 accounts at cost (£1 and £2). These will be revalued at fair value once operational (i.e. in the FY2023 accounts). (Should equate to a £0.5m gain)
2. Post Period sale of Kazera shares £50k gain (December 2022).
3. Post Period sale of Deep Blue 30% to the Black Economic Empowerment local community. Unclear what (if anything) they are paying for this 30%
4. Post Period Income from Whale Head and Deep Blue begins. (Worth around £0.3m/year)

5. Meanwhile We await assays on Specimin Hill and news of the JV!

GLA

Steven49 oh ye of little faith.
There's already a concrete $642,000 from the buyer sitting in Kazera's bank account.
There's a contract to sell Aftan.
There's 8% interest while they pay or if there's a delay.
There's a valuable asset we take back control of if the buyer reneges.
Meanwhile there's other forms of cash flow (HMS and Diamonds)
All of that is concrete and none of the above is pie in the sky I'd say.