Member Info for Agricore

Perhaps that's why Andrada appears twice in IC: Brokers upgrades and Directors Buys.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2020/11/19/big-director-buys-and-sells-updated-18-nov/
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/
A 46% jump in earnings to 0.3p puts it on a PE of 15. Not spectacular but decent.

Perhaps too why there's a net change of about 6500 tonnes production from the top 10 tin producers?
https://twitter.com/MABernal7/status/1626036637204373504/photo/2

I'm less optimistic about the speed lithium or tantalum makes the difference here. But if we can achieve and maintain sub $20k AISC then its addition is a bonus. A pilot plant will generates a few tonnes, but can help derisk the flowsheet and also in time mitigates metallurgical risk. A BFS will be required if we want to proceed quickly, however several years of running a pilot pilot can made a BFS superfluous, so long as you're only scaling the same flowsheet/operation up.

A rise in tin to $35k-$40k/tonne tin combined with a falling AISC towards even $15k and eventually through byproduct credits to -$5000 would breathe life into ATM. Re-reading Hannam & Partners, Tamesis etc this evening it's not as though we are not on track compared to forecasts for 2023. Albeit no one really saw the tin price crash, war, oil price and inflation shocks coming did they?

One interesting factoid from their analysis, was the average paid for a lithium mine per tonne of lithium. The average was $95/tonne. Given our 1.45MT that equates to $137.75m or £113.8m..... so 62% above today's market cap for ATM.... and that's just the lithium! The above figure was upgraded last month which equates to about 1.5p/share worth of lithium yet we are down 10% m-o-m!! Baby and the bathwater?

GLA

To clarify .....I find it unthinkable there couldn't be a growth in NAV.

Today's full year results are pleasing.
The NAV is $739m and that contains $311m of cash/publicly traded shares so a net $428m of oil & green investments (green & blacks?). Meanwhile the market cap is $365m at today's price (or net of 365-311 = $54m.

So effectively stripping out cash/publicly trading buying RSE you are buying at a 87.3% discount to NAV!!!!!!!!!!!!! (i.e. 54/428)

Or put another way, paying 89.25p for each share of 707.44p worth of investments (net of cash/publicly traded).

It gets better.... (seriously!)

Because of cash buy backs if the NAV increases by **NOTHING** in the next 12 months but buybacks continue there are $23.2m of buy backs authorised and let's say at £6 a share (nothing changes to price either) then the shares in issue drop to 46.15m and 3.86m are bought back in 2023. Well, NAV $716.8m - $287.8m = $429m of net assets, divided by 46.15m shares that's a net of $9.30 or £7.68 a share net of cash/publicly traded.

So you're paying 89.25p for each share that increases from 707.44p to 768p worth of investments (net of cash/publicly traded) by the end of 2023. Just because of already announced buy backs. A discount to NAV of 88.4%

But NAV ***HAS*** grown. By 96% actually since June 2020. Some of that admittedly due to the recovery of oil in the USA. But there's a "little" US legislation ($368bn is not so little) called the Inflation Reduction Act. There's mention in the annual report of its effects already but this will grow throughout 2023, so I find it think there couldn't be a growth in NAV.

As for the oil plays I am bullish for these also. China's reopening, the continuing resilience and strength in major economies, overall world growth forecast of 2.9% for 2023. Meanwhile supply is challenged. Russian oil fields will dwindle without Western expertise and through sanctions. Iran is non grata. Goldman Sachs thesis is H2 2023 will see new highs for oil.

So I've topped up today based on this analysis. Judging by the fact not a single comment here and 26 trades all day this IT is so off the radar. It's a previous Questor recommendation from a few months back.

GLA

I've a small holding here. Today's Q1 results show a real breakthrough and anyone buying in now is getting a cheap share. I look "Shares Magazine" recommendation a year back. The only concern I'd flag is whether the company will continue to list in the UK? Having a wonderful share listed in Oslo shouldn't necessarily a negative however will we see a withdrawal from London? If so, I expect my ISA holding becomes non-viable. It's tricky to be listed just in Oslo (if that happens).

GLA

Mr Cautious,

allow me to clarify. I intend to be a LTH (unless the analysis changes) and I bought in around 12 months ago based on Align's 2022 shares of the year research. Following Dennis Edmonds "changing of the guard" and based on a number of conversations/analysis I averaged down at 0.7p during the summer so sit on a reasonable profit as it stands. However I have been a Tectonic s/h and before that it was Stratmin (which reverse tookover TTAU) who of course part sold the Walviskorp Bay asset to KZG so a LTH to some of the assets at least.

As a LTH to KZG from 2016 where your buy price was what 6p-7p? You must have thrown caution to the wind back then Mr Cautious. Assuming you're still a shareholder, then that's a case of bad grapes sitting on a loss for 7 years. Sorry about that. We've all been there. But objectively a lesson I learned (the hard way) some years back was you can only assess your portfolio from the present going forwards....

And what counts is that there's room to grow. So why do you think there's only jam in the distant future? Any basis of fact to that opinion? Or just bad grapes? Clearly from today's RNS there's $2.2m of jam arrived from the Chinese and $10+m accruing nicely at 8%. This evening's RNS where all debts are now paid off and the separation plant is ordered for the ilmeninite and garnet and that being 4 months away is music to my ears. Remember separating it into component materials makes the HMS 6x more valuable. What bit of the jam is distant?

I see jam today, jam tomorrow, and you won't need to be too much of a LTH to get back to 6p-7p and exit at break even if that's your objective assuming you've doggedly held on for so long on a paper loss. Certainly once KZG resumes I cannot see how it remains at 0.8p in 2023 when the future DCF, portfolio assets and royalties point to a far brighter future.

If nothing else I'm glad to have interrupted the constant negativity around the delay to the audit. Top marks to DE for putting out an update RNS today, to keep us informed.

I'm looking forward to topping up on KZG once it resumes. Especially if the audit re-moaners rush to the exits on the resumption day. Please rush and sell. You're right remoaners it's all dreadful, DE is an X, Y and a Z, just like you say. You can instead buy and average down too Mr Cautious. Throw it to the wind once again! Don't stay at a 7p average. But this time maybe you've re-assessed and agree that jam is today, tomorrow and not in the distant future.

Well whatever you decide good luck to you and GLA

Like many others I feel concerned about the idea of using cash (which arrived through dilution to us all) buying more land when KAV owns 14000k2 of highly-prospective land.

If we can get a result at the KSZ then of course all will be forgiven and any concern evaporates. I remind myself that BT put a shed load of his own money into KAV (far more than I did) so if KAV believes it's the right move then we must trust KAV's judgment. I don't believe BT is unilaterally calling the shots as to strategy and that there's a number of highly technical folks who - to be fair - could go get a job with Anglo American or similar but don't because they are invested into KAV (i.e. are partially compensated via employee stock options and haven't staked their own cash).

I don't accept it's a "lifestyle business" - if you say that you need to read the KSZ report or the many RNSs. Lifestyle businesses sneer at their shareholders and don't put out more info than they have to. Key people would be leaving if it were a lifestyle business wouldn't they?

My perspective is that this is a high risk activity and we are trying to throw two dice and get a pair. We think we have some loaded dice using CSAMT, however the jury is out on that. Like I say result on B1 and double sixes the share rockets up and suddenly all the negativity about BT is this that or the other goes away.

GLA

Interesting read across. Mineral sands prices are up 32% and BSE recorded record profits.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1007450/base-resources-md-talks-record-first-half-sales-revenue-progress-at-kwale-and-toliara-assets-1007450.html
They are on the opposite side of Africa to KZG (Kenya) however are mining the same sort of mineral sands. Interesting then they're achieving record profits, mine life extension - oh and did I mention the AUD$0.02 dividend yielding over 20%?! (It hasn't gone ex-dividend yet however this could be the last dividend as they will build funds for their 2nd mine in Madagascar). Yet BSE's HM sands are at a 3-4% concentration and in 2023 are targetting 397KT/year whereas KZG has a whopping 61% HM content and is targetting 72KT/year. Based on 3.11MT resource and assuming zero replenishment from the ocean (which we know isn't the case) that's 43 years worth of material. Or if you expand the operation by 6x then you'd have 7+ years. BSE achieve a $150m per annum EBITDA (although that's dwindling now as they've largely mined out the resource) or 14 times the market cap of KZG on a resource *****15 times****** less concentrated. Assuming a simple pro rata, then the PE of KZG achieving 15x$150m EBITDA ($2.25bn) put the current market cap of PE = 0.0049. In other words your gross earnings equals the KZG market cap of $11m every 1.75 days!

So to all those focused on whether the accounts have been done yet, the bigger picture is the spectacular value which we should progressively start to see. Let's not mention the diamonds that BSE does *NOT* have nor the REE project in Kenya. None of which is factored in to the above!

If you're focused because you're desparate to sell then fair one and you'll be missing out - but as you say you're desperate. But if you're a LTH like I am, then let's just not worry whether it's tomorrow or the next day. It'll come and none of that is stopping the digging and development, and value realisation. Nor indeed is it stopping the payments for the sale of the Lithium/Tantalum mine, nor the future 2.5% NSR from their production too! (Also not factored in to the above!!)

GLA

It should be borne in mind that the regenerative shocks will be useful for ICE vehicles to feed the start/stop (in addition to the regenerative braking) and to minimise alternator use (which puts a load on the petrol/diesel engine and consumes fuel). From that perspective the market size is substantially more than just EVs.

My own experience of start/stop is that the brakes do not provide enough oomph to let the start/stop kick in. Perhaps I should use the brakes more?!

GLA

You're both very brave regarding DEC. I held DEC for a while but felt perturbed by the large net loss which seems to be breezily overlooked by analysts and investors. As a trained accountant I've tried to get my head round they arrived at that loss and how it connects to the hedging. I asked their IR folks several times (no reply) and raised it on the DEC forum too. In the end I followed the maxim of don't invest in what you don't understand and got out. However apart from a slight drop (along with the whole market) the sky hasn't crashed on DEC and perhaps never shall. But the apparent 2021 29.8p loss per share and adjusted profit of 14.5p made no sense to me! What's your perspective on this Damofarl? Sorry it's off topic to FAIR but I am genuinely curious.

8/ MessageBird: MessageBird is a Netherlands-based cloud communications platform that uses AI to provide personalized messaging services for businesses. Its products include chatbots and voice assistants.

9/ Cazoo: Cazoo is a UK-based online used car marketplace that uses AI and machine learning to provide a personalized car buying experience for customers. Its platform uses data analysis to match customers with the right vehicles and provide financing options.

10/ Arrival: Arrival is a UK-based company that develops electric vehicles (EVs) and uses AI and machine learning to optimize their design and manufacturing processes. Its products include buses, vans, and trucks.

A few small holdings of CHRY is focused on the development of AI, but the nugget and arguably the more interesting is that very few of its holdings aren't embracing the *APPLICATION* of AI. This in my mind is the more profitable play to make on AI. If you can make smarter decisions faster and reduce the amount of admin by say 10% or 20% then that drops straight through to bottom line. People see "disruptive fintech" as being "digital" and/or "online" but to my mind it's the automation and digitisation of back office and front office processes which is the true value of digital.

And that's why I'm happy to pick up more CHRY at half its NAV value, because I'm convinced among these companies are future winners and also future candidates for buy outs. Either way the long term price won't be sixty something pence.

3/ Smart Pension 12% of portfolio:

3a/ Personalized Pension Plans: Smart Pension uses ML algorithms to analyze employee data, such as age, income, and retirement goals, to create personalized pension plans that meet their specific needs.

3b/ Automated Pension Administration: Smart Pension uses AI-powered chatbots to provide 24/7 support to employers and employees for pension administration tasks, such as onboarding and contribution management.

3c/ Investment Management: Smart Pension uses AI and ML algorithms to manage pension investments and maximize returns while minimizing risk. The platform analyzes market data and adjusts investment portfolios to reflect changes in market conditions.

3d/ Fraud Detection: Smart Pension uses AI and ML algorithms to detect and prevent pension fraud. The platform's system analyzes customer data to identify suspicious activity and alert the company's fraud team.

3e/ Compliance Management: Smart Pension uses ML algorithms to automate compliance management and ensure that pension plans comply with legal and regulatory requirements.

4/ Luminance: An AI-powered platform that helps lawyers and other professionals to review and analyze large volumes of legal documents.

5/ Graphcore 4% of portfolio: A semiconductor company that designs processors for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) applications.

6/ Deep Instinct:
6a/ Threat Detection: Deep Instinct uses deep learning algorithms to detect and prevent cyber threats. The platform's system analyzes large amounts of data, including network traffic, file behavior, and system logs, to identify and block malicious activity in real-time.

6b/ Behavioral Analysis: Deep Instinct uses deep learning algorithms to analyze the behavior of files and applications to identify anomalies and potential threats. The platform can detect zero-day attacks and other advanced threats that traditional cybersecurity solutions may miss.

6c/ Malware Classification: Deep Instinct uses deep learning algorithms to classify and categorize different types of malware. The platform can accurately identify known and unknown malware, including fileless attacks, ransomware, and other types of malware.

6d/ Threat Hunting: Deep Instinct uses AI and machine learning to assist with threat hunting and investigation. The platform provides threat intelligence and analysis tools that help cybersecurity teams identify and respond to threats more quickly and effectively.

6e/ Automated Remediation: Deep Instinct uses AI and machine learning to automate remediation processes and respond to threats in real-time. The platform's system can isolate infected devices, block malicious activity, and repair systems automatically.

7/ Lidar: Luminar Technologies is a US-based company that develops lidar (light detection and ranging) technology for autonomous vehicles. Lidar is a key technology for self-driving cars as it allows them to "see" and navigate the environment.

Ironic then that Chrysalis is being overlooked yet holds lots of stock directly and indirectly engaged in AI:

1/ 12% of portfolio: Starling Bank, a digital bank in the UK, uses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to improve its banking services for customers:
1a/Fraud Detection: Starling Bank uses AI and ML algorithms to detect and prevent fraud. The bank's system analyzes customer transactions and behaviors to identify suspicious activity and alert the bank's fraud team.
1b/ Customer Service: Starling Bank uses AI-powered chatbots to provide customers with 24/7 support. The chatbots use natural language processing (NLP) to understand customer queries and provide personalized responses.
1c/ Credit Decisions: Starling Bank uses ML algorithms to analyze customer data, such as transaction history and credit score, to make more informed lending decisions.

1d/ Spending Insights: Starling Bank uses ML algorithms to provide customers with personalized spending insights. The bank's system analyzes customer transactions to identify spending patterns and trends and provides insights and recommendations to help customers manage their finances.

1e/ Savings Goals: Starling Bank uses ML algorithms to help customers reach their savings goals. The bank's system analyzes customer spending patterns to identify areas where customers could save money and provides personalized savings goals and recommendations.

17% of portfolio: WeFox is a digital insurance platform that uses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to enhance the customer experience and improve risk management. Here are some examples of how WeFox is using AI and ML:

2a/ Risk Assessment: WeFox uses ML algorithms to analyze customer data, such as claims history and demographic information, to identify potential risks and determine the appropriate insurance coverage and premiums.

2b/ Claims Processing: WeFox uses AI-powered chatbots to provide customers with 24/7 support for filing claims. The chatbots use NLP to understand customer queries and provide personalized responses.

2c/ Customer Service: WeFox uses ML algorithms to analyze customer data, such as interactions with the platform and feedback, to personalize customer service and provide a better overall experience.

2d/ Fraud Detection: WeFox uses AI and ML algorithms to detect and prevent fraud. The platform's system analyzes customer data to identify suspicious activity and alert the company's fraud team.

2e/ WeFox uses ML algorithms to automate the underwriting process, which allows the platform to provide faster and more accurate insurance quotes.

CONT'D.....

Thanks SD you're 100% correct.

Referring to the Q3 factsheet as at 30/09/22: https://www.tpenergytransition.com/investors/72/#investor_documents
The asset mix is CHP 29.8% / Hydro 61.6% / BESS 0.8% / LED 1.2% / Cash 6.6%
And type is 31.8% senior debt finance vs 61.6% equity (and cash 6.6%).
So the hydro is an owned asset while the LED, CHP and BESS are senior debt finance. On reflection this makes sense in that CHP (Tomatoes/Steam) and LED (in 2 Factories) are installations from within someone else's building.

Reading the interim report however the expansion is into BESS (110MW of storage at 4 sites) and the "committed" portfolio changes the composition to:
20% CHP / 41% Hydro / 34% BESS / 1% LED
Because BESS is also debt funded then the mix becomes 55.2% senior debt finance/44.8% equity (+/- cash)
One asset of the 4 is now live which the remainder 12 months away.

Reading Liberum's article about Greencoat and indeed Greencoat's recent NAV increase of ~25% I think there's a strong read across to TENT. In fact the TENT Sep 2022 interim report speaks to key sensitivities of 2.7p NAV per 0.5% inflation (and reading note 9 this is based on a 3% RPI!) and 3.2p NAV per 10% increase in power prices (based on 2 preceding quarters). Seems to me there is scope for something like a 5x2.7p and 5x3.2p = 29.5p increase in NAV offset by a further increase in the risk free rate applied to the DCF of 6.42% in 09/22 (increased from 6.11% in March 2022). Taking a 1% rise the sensitivity says this has a 2x3.07p negative affect. So NAV increase of 23.34p to March 23 maybe? (From 100.26p to 123.6p?). Assuming a read across reversion to SP 10% premium to NAV, then a near double bag to £1.35 seems possible, locking in a 6.7% (and growing) yield.

Also while it's hard to discern yields for all parts of the portfolio, looking at CHP I can see annualised £3.14m loan interest on £29m so that's a gross yield of 10.82%. Compared to a 4.5% fixed cost of debt. So a 6.32% NIY?

There's also £1.2m annualised capital repayments for CHP so these aren't perpetual interest only deals (which would require some element of amortisation). I also note the phrase "Senior Debt Finance" which provides some degree of protection in the event of any default.

GLA

Like many others I've used today's opportunity to top up at 16.9p. What the moaners seem to not understand is the money raised is accretive to the assets..... the cake got bigger. Placings at a discount is normal. 20% is quite high but it's not catastrophically so. The money is being used in interesting ways.

Firstly, the suspension struts must have some "bounce" (ha ha) otherwise why invest $1m in them? I disagree with the comments that batteries are sufficiently good that they are not needed. Smaller batteries would cut the cost and cut the weight, so regenerative suspension would be preferable for cost but also from an ESG point of view. The otherwise "wasted" power would otherwise need to be obtained from somewhere - at a cost. 5m-10m extra is worthwhile.

Investing in Microsalt inventory bodes well for a positive trading update, too, don't you think?

No idea where you are getting the idea they "loan money". They don't. They own assets (BESS, Hydro and CHP). They earn an income from those assets. They also borrow to buy more assets to earn even higher income (it's called "leveraging").
I've written this before, but revised the numbers for the recent drop in SP to highlight the value here:

As at 31/3/22
£96m assets
£80m deployed by last year end (31/3/22)
£40m debt facility with 4.5% cost
Targeted return of about 8-9% per annum. Spread over a number of projects and technologies.
Notably Hydroelectric, Battery Storage (BESS), CHP (growing Tomatoes!)
2022 dividend not covered by income. 0.98x covered at midyear FY2023.
Can achieve a 3-4% non-cash "fair value" adjustment (this appears to be in excess to the 8-9% return above)... achieved this in H1 FY2023.
Typically peers trade at a 15-20% premium while TENT is at a 30.1% discount.

So back of a *** packet FY2023 (i.e. as at 31st March 2023):
Assumes average of £120m assets deployed during FY2023 delivering a return of 8% (£9.6m)
Servicing Debt £0.9m
OCF £1.4m
Dividends £6m
Profit £1.4m (plus possibly £3.6m fair value adjustments) = £5m

2024
£145m deployed returning £11.3m
Less debt servicing £1.8m
OCF £1.4m
Dividends £6m
Profit £2.1m plus fair value adjustment £4.5m = £6.6m

The profits could mean higher dividends (potentially double to 15.5% yield at current prices) although there is a stated buy back policy (not yet exercised) where the share is at a discount. Current yield is 7.8%. There's no reason I can fathom for its discount beyond many "green" investments have plummeted.

The bit I was concerned about (uncovered dividend) is now largely covered. I'm also of the mind that compared to say GSF or GRID this offers better protection since it doesn't put all eggs in 1 basket (BESS). Also this is the best hydroelectic power play I think exists in the UK markets (happy to be wrong on this but I think that's accurate). The high electrical prices are a benefit to hydro electric and have the benefit that so long as Scotland is not in drought then there's reliable daily returns from "base power" - more than you could say for wind or solar. Not affected by the windfall taxes.

On 28 October 2022, the Company's shares transferred to trading on the Premium Segment of the Main Market of the LSE - means they can more easily be invested in by funds or ii's. (No evidence this has happened yet)

Based on my PE FY2024 estimate and a "fair" future 5.5% yield on a future target price, then this has scope to triple bag from here.... at low risk.

GLA

I now make a FY2023 H2 Forecast of:

LOOKING FORWARD: H2 Estimates. Assuming JLP achieve 3000 tonnes copper as targeted and the cobalt circuit doubles recovery to 150 tonnes/month from March 2023.

I estimate $32m revenue (assuming $8k/tonne copper) and $19.5m cos so $12.5m EBITDA for Zambia.
SA meanwhile targets 22k oz of PGM and let's assume same basket price and costs static. Chrome and 3rd party materials performance repeats. That translates to revenue so $33m revenue and $11.5m cost of production so $21.5m EBITDA.
This would translate to a FY2023 $170094m full year revenue and $64m EBITDA.
Combined H1 for all sites = $129m rev, $83.5m cost, and EBITDA $45.5m
22000 ozs PGMs @ $1500/oz = $33m
700,000 Tonnes Chrome @$59.61/tonne = $41.7m
3000 tonnes copper @ $8000/tonne = $24m
750 tonnes cobalt @ $35000/tonne = $26.3m

700,000 Chome COS @59.61/tonne = $41.7m
PGM COS @ 525/Oz = $11.5m
Copper COS = 6500/Tonne = $19.5m
Cobalt COS = 0/Tonne = 0
(I'm assuming zero here as it's not clear there's any marginal cost involved at Roan but I could be wrong)
$125m revenue
$72.7m COS
$64.5m EBITDA
Combined Outturn for the YEAR:
$200.5m Revenue less $129.7m = $70.8m EBITDA (or £59m)

To Conclude: FY2023 will be about half that forecast a year ago, or 20% less than my forecast July 2022. But one can see a doubling of EBITDA in FY2024 to £110m-£120m. So we are a "year behind" one might say. And somewhat diluted and indebted too, it's fair to say.
Why? For FY2024:
1/ Copper volume Expansion
2/ Cobalt volume Expansion
3/ Recovery in PGM basket prices
4/ New partnerships
5/ Copper price likely to increase as a “transition metal”
6/ Cobalt price recovery (was $80k/tonne a year ago)

Target price: Based on a FY2024 Price Earnings of 6 (again using WH Ireland's metric) then I get to 16.5p/share. (£110m EBITDA translating to about £75m Net Profit x 6 vs a current market cap of £264m).

That's 16.5p before taking into account any of the above 6 factors which would start to get JLP back towards the previous 29p/share WH Ireland number.

We now know there's an (unaudited):
Revenue $75.5m COS $57m or $18.5m EBITDA for H1 FY2023 (i.e. £15.5m).
Yet I compare this to the last broker note where a forecast was given. This was 09/12/21 (!) and was WH Ireland (haven't checked Hybridian and SP Angel for their RNS copy and paste broker "analysis") In that the full year EBITDA forecast for FY2023 was £110.5m. So we are pro rata about £40m EBITDA below forecast. I cannot find where the $16.4m broker estimate referred to in the presentation comes from?
In a post I made 6 months ago I wrote:
<<<
LOOKING FORWARD: H1 Estimates. Assuming JLP achieve 3700 tonnes copper as targeted and the cobalt circuit doubles recovery I estimate $32m revenue (assuming $8k/tonne copper which may be conservative) and $18.5m cos so $13.5m EBITDA for Zambia.
SA meanwhile targets 44k oz of PGM and let's assume same basket price (again conservative?) and costs static. Chrome and 3rd party materials performance repeats. That translates to an $11m uplift in revenue so $97m revenue and $65 cost of production so $32m EBITDA.
If we assume there's no further uplift for FY2023 H2 (v.unlikely) then this would translate to a FY2023 $194m full year revenue and $64m EBITDA.
Combined H1 for all sites = $129m rev, $83.5m cost, and EBITDA $45.5m (£38m)
>>>
So, I was quite wrong! (I did not foresee the water/power disruption)
? PGM volumes 20% lower, basket price 18% lower.
? Copper volumes 66% lower, basket price approx. $8k, as forecast
? Copper COS 60% higher (fixed charges to secure power allocation)
? PGM /Chrome COS as forecast
So in trying to assess whether H2 FY2023 improves, we can see measures which do bring this back towards target. There are also grounds for optimism in FY2024 too.
Personally I don’t see the PGM basket price improving much until FY2025, but based on those other variances all reversing (as now appears possible due to the water/power interventions)

....CONT'D

Positive read across from Fair announcing a 6% rise in NAV this morning

Impressive 6% boost to NAV announced this morning. The U.K. and US retail and GDP numbers all point to a far gentler landing and lower defaults than is priced. This is my understanding for the value here is that repayments/cash is being recycled into new instruments which are trading at an unwarranted discount. Volta appears to report the same. But I agree the monthly updates are couched in complicated language.

Gla

Today's update from BLZE on top of 13/12/22 update is portfolio change is net $5.2m (3.745m shares and 30/6/22 valuation was $5.23, BLZE is a $6.63 ask so $1.4 x 3.745m). Plus $3.1m (+$2m Hugo + $1.6m Muncher - $0.5m Usual Wines). On June's NAV of $210.1m that's an uplift to $218.4m. Market cap is $113m today (16/2/23).

So a discount of 48% to NAV based on a recent (Dec 22) update. Meanwhile the peers to BOLT (Uber and Lyft) have diverged. LYFT is down 6% compared to June 22. Uber is up 40%. So assuming a half way mark of 17% reversion in valuation would be $74.3m x 17% = $12.6m uplift. So a revised NAV of $231m.
That gets us to a discount to NAV of 51% - even after the recent "excitement" and price recovery driven by ST's Bargain Shares of the Year inclusion.

Moreover, a couple of realisations above their holding price at the next update (due soon) should send this on its way, with ST penning excited updates to his IC readers.

I dare say we'll see an IPO of BOLT at some point in 2023, or they'll get taken out by Uber, Lyft or someone else. They are quite well established in 45 countries in growing markets in Africa, Middle East, Central America and Eastern Europe etc so an interesting play that's not dependent on the current "western world" economic cycle. (The world economy is overall growing nicely)

Backblaze is growing fast, and addressing a growing market (albeit lots of big companies Azure, AWS etc in this space). But lots of people like using the little guy. Backblaze seem to offer a professional and straight forward service and the key point is because this is publicly listed really one should consider it "liquid". This is $25.3m. ($6.75 x 3.745m). We also know that TMT had $10m cash in Dec 22.

So we therefore can calculate ex-cash and publicly listed shares the net market price discount to NAV is $113m-$10m-$25.3m / $231m-$10m-$25.3m = $64.1m i.e. a 60.3% discount to NAV. Or assuming BOLT is fairly valued at +17% so $86.9m (given that there are read acrosses from Lyft and Uber) and could be liquidated at that price today, and handed back to shareholders... then essentially each TMT share you buy would give you back your buy price THEN hand you $0.72 of cash per share ($86.9m-$64.1m/31.45 shares in issue) ****AND*** give you $3.45 per share worth of the $109m of other investments!!!!!!

Can you find me another share which is as cheap as this?