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Even without the VW case which presumably there's zero update about in 2022 nor in Q1 2023 (despite the court case in "early 2023") otherwise there would have been an RNS to update on this market moving news.

The underlying profitability 2023 EPS of 20p (PE of 5.3), positive £11.7m 2023 FCF and the estimated 2023 NAV/share of 144.8p (~35% above market price) is not baked into the price.

A VW settlement only adds about 10% profit so drops another 2p-3p earnings per share straight to the bottom line. It's a welcome addition but this share isn't an all or nothing bet. Plus there's plenty more emissions cases to pursue.

Only explanation I can think for the current doldrums is that the market is assuming annexo will lose the case. There were £5.8m accrued costs relating to emissions H1 2022 so perhaps £7.5m now? A loss would send that £7.5m to the bottom line and reduce profits by 25% for 2023 plus put the logic of pursuing further cases in doubt. I do not believe this will happen but if you separate out the legal emissions cases the rest of the business feels undervalued.

The lack of news and engagement is an issue but the numbers are the numbers. The brief and understated "trading in line" doesn't wax lyrical that's true, however anyone who analyses the past performance and trajectory can see that "in line" is flipping good!

Anyway, yes, Tuesday should be good reading.

GLA

I've been intrigued by the seemingly innocuous phrase:
"Group leverage 1.4x at end of 2022 is expected to fall in 2023 to 1.0x or lower by the end of 2023, due to the cash generative nature of the business, now including the highly cash generative Earol brand."
The analyst coverage from Singers estimates a £8.5m adj EBITDA for 2022 and £14m net debt......
Well that is a 1.65x ratio so either the debt is lower or the profit is higher than that assumed by Singers.
For example is actual adj profits for 2022 is £10m and net debt is £14m then that's 1.4x.
Either way that's a surprise to the upside.... for Singers and Cenkos at least.

I've estimated using the HL run rate profit plus the VLG run rate operating profit that once again the 2023 numbers are simply too conservative versus what's happening on the ground. In the update 13th March it's revealed that the ratio has dropped to 1.3X as at 28/02/23 suggesting that 1X by year end pro rata we are looking at more like a ratio of 0.7X.

But this assumes a level run rate. We know that there's a growing order book, China, contribution from Earol. With a conservative 17% growth (as seen in 2022) an adj EBITDA/debt of 0.5x or lower.

But Singers speaks to an 2023 "equity free cash flow yield percentage" of 14.3%. Decrypting that Equity is £74m (as at 30/6/22) and 14.3% is £10.6m. So if that's true, FCF 2023 should drive the ratio to about 0.3x by end of 2023.

Whichever metric you consider, compared to current market expectations VLG appears to be cash generative, stable and paying down debt more rapidly than it is being credit for. It gives a potential war chest for further acquisitions but also the idea that dividends could follow. A 4p a share dividend (10% yield) would cost £5m a year. Affordable from FCF. I'm glad the business is paying down debt as debt is expensive (a £1.5m annualised finance cost using June 2022's numbers). But it does highlight the value to the current share price doesn't it?

GLA

Great update and read across Rivaldo

Facts:
1. BATM appears to have secured some credible customers/partners.
2. That the Israeli gov't use their firewall product speaks volumes to its quality.
3. Edge computing in the sense that you can harness the power of the network isn't entirely new and was used (for example) famously by Napster back in the day. Edge Computing used to be called P2P or peer to peer. Although Edge Computing extends the concept that you harness the processing for more than downloading of data. You instead can P2P processing... this is a new concept.
4. Edge computing extends into security and VPNs and particularly into IOT. This is something I know quite a bit about. VPNs are notoriously unreliable and even leading brands like Cisco "flake out". You don't run systems over VPNs if you want to avoid corruption and problems with databases. If Edge Computing can solve that, the market potential is colossal.
5. By extension the "server-client" model is heading towards the grave. Citrix is dead. Microsoft is cash cowing Remote Desktop Server to death. What else is out there? If edge computing can provide a new form of "server-client" the market potential is colossal.
6. To be in the "Cloud" is the latest fashion and trend. People feel this is the "only way forward". However this presents a number of challenges. Cost, Loss of control and counterparty risk being some of those. If a viable "server-client" model can present an alternative the market potential is colossal.

I am frustrated by BVC's performance and lack of progress. However I do remain hopeful that because the technology solves problems this is a diamond in the rough.
(Let alone the potential of the diagnosis kits and waste disposal products in the other arm of BVC)

GLA

Re-iterating my answer from 29th December but revising based on today's results:
1. Whales Head (40%) and Deep Blue (10%) are in the FY2022 accounts at cost (£1 and £2). These will be revalued at fair value once operational (i.e. in the FY2023 accounts). (Should equate to a £0.5m gain** - or 10% of TTAU's market cap - this is based on KZG's book value - but not based on the independent valuation)
2. Clarification on the sale of Deep Blue 30% to the Black Economic Empowerment local community. The independent valuation is £150m. This values TTAU's 40% at £60m (12x current market cap). 80% of profits repay the £45m loan made to BEE. On the basis that the 30% share of net income is £0.9m/year (conservatively) then £0.72m flows to TTAU reducing from the £45m balance. If you compare my previous answer "what, if anything, we get for the 30%" this revelation is DYNAMITE! In my opinion.
4. Income from the 10% Whale Head and Deep Blue begins. (Worth around £0.3m/year)
5. Meanwhile We await assays on Specimin Hill and news of the JV.... "in the next couple of weeks" so during April 2023?!
6. Kazera is cash rich and investing strongly into the HMS and Diamond operations, has a strategic partner who (guess what) operates a HMS business nearby, is buying Align's 29.9% stake at over 50% premium to KZG's share price.

This share is an incredible bargain right now. The hidden value should reveal itself in the next set of results and on the JV news "in a few weeks". But holders need to remain patient. Bear Grylls could use this share to light a fire after keeping it in his rucksack for a few years it's such a slow burner..... but that's not to say the value isn't there. The catalysts for this to rerate are coming together, not least thanks to Dennis Edmonds leadership over at KZG.

GLA... I'm excited!

Take a memo!

Some detail around what Vyrb can actually do: Additionally, Lucyd Lyte glasses enable the wearer to listen to music, take and make calls, and use voice assistants to perform many common smartphone tasks hands-free. Some of the many things that can be done with Lucyd Lyte glasses include:
1. “Send a voice message to (contact)”: this command begins the recording of an audio message to be sent to named contact.

2. “Send a text to (contact)”: begins recording of a speech-to-text message to be sent by SMS to named contact.

3. “Call (contact)”: speed-dials the named contact.

4. “Send $___ to (contact)”: this command allows our user to send money to a contact via Venmo or Apple Pay. Follow the digital assistant’s prompts to confirm.

5. “Check my messages”: this command reads out our user’s latest incoming text messages and offers a prompt to reply to each. Close out the digital assistant to end the readout.

6. “Check my mailbox”: this command announces the number of unread emails, and reads them out with a prompt to continue after each one. In the prompt after each one, our customers can tell their digital assistant “Reply” and dictate an email response to the previous email.

7. “Find (cuisine type) food nearby”: this command reads through a list of nearby restaurants and their ratings, and prompts our user for directions or to call after each one.

8. “Call me an Uber”: this command prompts our user on which type of Uber ride they want, then asks to confirm to send a car to our user’s location.

9. “What time is it?”: announces the current time.

10. “Play (song/album/artist)”: this command begins playing the requested song, album or artist via Apple Music.

11. “Get me directions to (location)”: this command begins navigating on phone, with audible directions on glasses.

12. “Take a memo”: this command begins recording a speech-to-text memo in Notes. Say “Read my Notes” to play back.

Bankrupty,
Like yourself I struggled to understand the losses and consulted others on this board for any explanation for the losses. "It's a potential opportunity missed. It's negative now but still a big profit" just sounded like gibberish to me :)

The following 5 points will hopefully explain how DEC's profitability works. I've used the 2022 Annual Report so refer to the page numbers for substantiation of what I'm saying:

1. There's a realised loss and unrealised loss. As you rightly point out if I've X revenue and Y cost therefore how can things be ok when X-Y and I'm making a loss! Well, if we split Y cost into hedging losses for 2022 then that's $1.92bn minus $0.895bn of realised losses = $1.02bn net revenue. (See Page 46). Then if you take main expenses of Operating Costs, Dep'n, G&A, Finance Cost, Asset Retirement Obligation (See Page 128) that comes to $0.94bn. So there's a $60m net profit or $282m if you exclude depreciation.

2. Looking at it another way, if you go to P131 Statement of Cash Flows. Look at what cash is being generated through operating activities we can see $388m generated. This is largely the $282m you see above plus some adjustments. This is a "proof" of profitability in that it is generating cash at operating level.

3. The next thing I'd point to is expansion. There's an expanding volume of 7% net but that's net of a natural 8.5% decline rate. More production means more hedging so the gains and losses are magnified because to maintain a certain percentage of future years hedged then you need to increase your hedges.

4. Fair Value. I've not yet talked about unrealised losses. The way DEC have to account for future hedges is to make a "fair value" assessment of the gain or loss. At 31st December 2022 the oil and gas prices were $77/barrel and $3.57/mmbtu. The average floor was $3.63/mmbtu. That's significant because gas today is $2.17/mmbtu. More about that in a minute.... But as at 31/12/22 the future 2023-2032 future hedges had to be assessed based on the prevailing oil/gas price. So the result of that led to the paper loss. Because it's a paper loss that assumes a/ future prices are the same as today's prices b/ all the losses (10 years worth) are coming at once. They don't. As an accountant, the matching principle is that you ignore future gains/losses where they are profit and loss however when accounting for financial instruments you need to account for their "fair value" and record a gain or loss. The break out of future losses is set out on Page 152 and 153 and equate to about circa $250m in 2023. That's a lot of money but assumes the price of gas stays at high prices (it hasn't).

5. As at today 26/3/23 we now know that the losses have substantially reversed because of the lower gas prices in the USA. Looking at the strike prices of $3.65, $2.81 and even $2.14 today's price is below all of them.... in other words the hedging has actually swung to profit.

GLA

I've sold "at any cost" this morning following the delisting announcement. Any cost was 5p. Gutting end to this journey but recent experience with Metal Tiger delisting and continuing on the ASX is that sooner is better.

Given there was zero marketing or effort to promote GEEC other than an effusive SP Angel article whose advise I now know to take with a salt mine of salt, it's not surprising there was "negigible activity".

As far as I'm concerned this is a blatant grab by greedy Directors who I'm sure are hoovering up shares at 5p etc with glee knowing they have bright days ahead. They could have offered a tender offer or other means if they had any concern for GDR holders.

If you hold GEEC in a broker with great international presence (i.e. India) then you should be ok. Knowing to only go near CDIs and GDRs if you are with certain brokers is one of those subtle "gotcha" and can get getcha and that got me.

Good luck all remaining and I dare say the share itself should do well - but I would question the integrity of the management so as they say in latin - caveat investor!

Mr Cautious depends on your timing? If you'd bought KDNC in 04/2020 and sold in 06/2021 you'd have had a 9+ bagger. (3.25p to 31.5p)
While I agree KDNC and KZG are both "investment companies" there are huge differences. Most of all that KZG is cash generative today whereas KDNC isn't yet and largely won't be for 2-3 years. But remain patient and I suspect KDNC will come good.

Rerunning the numbers based on the Silicon Valley Bank update from 13/03/23:

TMT have generated a net $1.3m in the past 30 days suggesting 1 or more realisations from the portfolio the market believes are "worthless" - based on today's share price.

NAV as at last update 13/22/22 was $218.4m. Market cap currently is at a lowly $88.3m (as at 17/3/23) based on $2.64/share.

So a discount of 59.5% to NAV based on the recent (Dec 22) update. Meanwhile the peers to BOLT (Uber and Lyft) have diverged. LYFT is down 6% compared to June 22. Uber is up 40%. So assuming a half way mark of 17% reversion in valuation would be $74.3m x 17% = $12.6m uplift. So a revised NAV of $231m.
That gets us to a discount to NAV of 61.7% - as the recent "excitement" dwindled through inclusion in Investor Chronicle ST's Bargain Shares of the Year 2023.

Further realisations above their holding price at the next update (due soon) should send this on its way, with ST penning excited updates to his IC readers. We see evidence of realisations in the cash balance..... whether they were above holding price remains to be seen but TMT's track record would suggest it to be so.

I dare say we'll see an IPO of BOLT at some point in 2023, or they'll get taken out by Uber, Lyft or someone else. They are quite well established in 45 countries in growing markets in Africa, Middle East, Central America and Eastern Europe etc so an interesting play that's not dependent on the current "western world" economic cycle. (The world economy is overall still growing - and those markets more so)

Backblaze is growing fast, and addressing a growing market (albeit lots of big companies Azure, AWS etc in this space). But lots of people like using the little guy. Backblaze seem to offer a professional and straight forward service and the key point is because this is publicly listed really one should consider it "liquid". Its shares have dropped recently. So current value to TMT is $17.2m. ($4.58 x 3.745m). We also know that TMT had $11.5m cash at 13/03/23.

So we therefore can calculate ex-cash and publicly listed shares the net market price discount to NAV is $88.3m-$11.5m-$17.2m / $231m-$11.5m-$17.2m = $59.6m i.e. a 70.6% discount to NAV. Or assuming BOLT is fairly valued at +17% so $86.9m (given that there are read acrosses from Lyft and Uber) and could be liquidated at that price today, and handed back to shareholders... that's a discount to NAV of 132.88%.... in other words, if the above is true each TMT share you buy would give you back your buy price THEN hand you $0.87 of cash per share ($86.9m-$59.6m/31.45 shares in issue) ****AND*** give you $3.45 per share worth of the $109m of other investments!!!!!!

My rhetorical question remains as before...

GLA

Mr Cautious, I don't see it as being at all similar to BCN. What makes you say this? Do you worry needlessly?

This is why I do not believe it's at all similar:
1. BCN wasn't cash rich - KZG is.
2. BCN wasn't actually producing - or even close - KZG is.
3. BCN wasn't multi asset, multi commodity, and multi location - KZG is.
4. Align's holding today is 19.9%. About a third of Align's holding is through options. If you look at the options most (not all) are at 2p. That's over double today's price.
5. Mexico isn't a mining friendly jurisdiction (subsequent history of nationalising Ganfeng's holding is proof) Namibia is.
6. BCN faced a multi billion $ FID (Final Investment Decision). Kazera have spent and will spend around $10m to get operational.
7. By the time the 30% holding is with AMS and let's say that's 3-6 months time a "1.5p takeover bid" assumes the future price is the same as today.... I don't think it will be. A takeover bid is always at a premium to market price.
8. ii's - there are no ii's here - just people like you and I Mr Cautious.
9. Did the BCN management just give up? I don't know this to be true - but I do know watching Dennis Edmonds in interviews he is raring to go. And what of Align and is 1.5p a "fair value"? By Richard Jenning's own admission he's cashing in his chips at a "fair value for both parties".... in other words he knows full well he's leaving meat on the table for AMS but he's happy (he's accepted) to cash in his chips and retire or whatever he plans to do.
10. Did BCN management smell the coffee? If they hadn't sold and judging by the falling market caps at peers EMH or KDNC or ZNWD it's not as though they past 2 years have been happy times for Lithium Mine Developers! I don't see you can read across the same when HMS peer Base Resources for example have been generating a 10%-15% yield and ROCE for years and years mining HMS.

11. Takeover or sale of Whale Head? I would remind you that KZG is an investment co. not a miner as such. Perhaps a different future is the value is realised through a sale of the asset including a further NSR?

12. Last but not least, what do you think we will see in the Interim (as at December 2022) accounts? - due in the next fortnight? Will we see a whacking loss like in the FY2022 (June 2022) accounts? Of 0.26p (about 25% of the market cap)? No! I hear your resounding cry. Given the "fair value gain" of the sale of Aftan, the production post June of Deep Blue, plus a 2 month inventory work in progress at Whale Head, 8% interest income over $15m, the "hidden value" of the 2.5% NSR over Aftan, this share is ripe for a sharp reversal on the publication of its interim results. An interim net profit which I estimate at 0.2p/share should see this move higher in my view. Perhaps to as much as 2p/share (Putting it on a PE of 10). Falling to a PE of 5 in the full year to June 2023 - implying up to 4p by say September.

GLA

Or put another way:
Relative to its most direct HMS peers of BSE and ARO, KZG has a flat performance YOY versus a 40% price drop.
Relative to TRR (which has a lithium NSR) YOY is flat versus 3% rise.
Relate to PDL (diamond mining) YOY is flat versus a 30% drop.

If AMS is happy to pay around £4m for 29.9% of KZG (at 1.5p) that put a floor to the price in my opinion. I think yesterday we saw some short term traders liquidating their position for a quick 10%-20% profit. I resisted the temptation to do that knowing that AMS is in the picture.
Who are AMS? Well they own VMS. VMS are "just down the road" from KZG: http://www.vmsmining.co.za/
Having an expert part owner with a sister operation is pretty amazing.
And if KZG languishes at 0.95p then if this doesn't scream take over I don't know what does.
At the very, very least there's a 50% upside from here.

GLA

Steven49, if they collapse we take back the mine - simple - and keep their payments. Ownership passes once 100% paid and the NSR is held over the asset too. So it’s a glass zero empty as you seem to want to look at it pessimistically

If you overlay CUSN and ATM on a chart they run in near lock step to each other. In other words CUSN had a higher capitalisation at its outset. The movements in both is closely driven by the price of tin.... for now.

Apologies, in this recent video Anthony confirms current AISC "about $18000/tonne", not $19500
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&t=26&v=rdMHrmbATEg&feature=youtu.be

If you add the phrase "AISC net of byproduct credits" then that could be true in the future. But it's not true yet, although the pilot plant should bring the AISC from $19500 towards $15000 so we are going to be heading in the right direction. However if this database is to be believed, there are lithium operations mining at circa $400/tonne AISC: https://miningdataonline.com/property/list.aspx?cat=0&cmids=53&sids=6,5&ssids=1,2&fm=0&yr=22&vw=11
So the statement is untrue at present.

GLA

Hi Rivaldo, good post, and this is being borne out in the wider macro data too e.g. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/composite-pmi

54.2 is a strong reading and surprising the bounce back is so strong so quickly. But positive for VLG

MOST PROFITABLE - GREEN/TRANSITION ENERGY INVESTMENTS:

Based on the Riverstone Energy Limited Annual Report 2022, here are the these are the largest MOIC (Multiple of Invested Capital) (i.e. profitable) "green" or energy transition investments:

FreeWire Technologies - MOIC of 9.8x
FreeWire Technologies is a provider of electric vehicle (EV) charging and power solutions. Riverstone Energy invested $30.2 million in the company.

Ambri - MOIC of 8.4x
Ambri is a developer of liquid metal battery technology for grid-scale energy storage. Riverstone Energy invested $31.5 million in the company.

Enyo - MOIC of 6.2x
Enyo is a developer of hydrogen fuel cell systems for the transportation sector. Riverstone Energy invested $17.5 million in the company.

24M - MOIC of 5.7x
24M is a developer of advanced lithium-ion battery technology. Riverstone Energy invested $31.5 million in the company.

Stem - MOIC of 5.1x
Stem is a provider of AI-driven energy storage systems for commercial and industrial customers. Riverstone Energy invested $42.7 million in the company.

Renewable Energy Group - MOIC of 4.7x
Renewable Energy Group is a producer of biodiesel and other renewable fuels. Riverstone Energy invested $22.5 million in the company.

Rubicon Global - MOIC of 4.5x
Rubicon Global is a provider of waste and recycling services using technology to optimize the collection and disposal process. Riverstone Energy invested $50.0 million in the company.

Demand Energy - MOIC of 4.4x
Demand Energy is a developer of energy storage systems and software for grid and behind-the-meter applications. Riverstone Energy invested $30.7 million in the company.

Silverpeak - MOIC of 3.7x
Silverpeak is a developer of renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and energy storage. Riverstone Energy invested $28.8 million in the company.

Ceres Power - MOIC of 3.6x
Ceres Power is a developer of fuel cell technology for power generation in the residential, commercial, and transportation sectors. Riverstone Energy invested $29.4 million in the company.

I've worked through the Annual Report 2022 to work out the largest holdings. As of December 31, 2022, Riverstone Energy's largest holding was Centennial Resource Development, which accounted for 10.9% of the fund's net asset value. Centennial is an independent oil and gas company with operations in the Permian Basin, and Riverstone Energy invested $233.8 million in the company.

CNX Resources was Riverstone Energy's second-largest holding, representing 10.2% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. CNX Resources is a natural gas exploration and production company with assets in the Appalachian Basin, and Riverstone Energy invested $263.7 million in the company.

Crestwood Equity Partners was another significant holding for Riverstone Energy, representing 7.3% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. Crestwood is a master limited partnership that operates midstream assets in various regions, including the Bakken Shale, Powder River Basin, and Delaware Basin, and Riverstone Energy invested $191.1 million in the company.

Liberty Oilfield Services was Riverstone Energy's fourth-largest holding, accounting for 5.2% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. Liberty is a provider of hydraulic fracturing and completions services for unconventional oil and gas development in North America, and Riverstone Energy invested $136.4 million in the company.

Altus Midstream was another midstream company in which Riverstone Energy invested, representing 4.9% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. Altus focuses on natural gas gathering, processing, and transportation in the Permian Basin, and Riverstone Energy invested $128.3 million in the company.

Riverstone Energy's sixth-largest holding was Castex Energy, representing 4.7% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. Castex is an exploration and production company with assets in the Gulf of Mexico, and Riverstone Energy invested $123.4 million in the company.

Mesa Royalty Trust was another significant holding for Riverstone Energy, accounting for 3.9% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. Mesa is a trust that holds interests in various oil and gas properties in the United States, and Riverstone Energy invested $102.2 million in the trust.

Finally, Riverstone Energy's eighth-largest holding was NextDecade, representing 3.8% of the fund's net asset value as of December 31, 2022. NextDecade is a liquefied natural gas development company focused on the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas, and Riverstone Energy invested $100.3 million in the company.

Mr Cautious,
You're a bit emotional. When you asked me about my length of holding it was obvious the point you were going to try to make. I do have my own "Kennedy Ventures" losses - Stratmin which part owns Walviskorp being one - but I've also spent a lot of time analysing the information regarding KZG so when someone like your good self comes along with vague claims of "jam in the distant future" I do like to question whether there's any basis and substance for your assertion. So thanks for sharing your analysis, and yes I did have a bit of fun with your name versus your behaviour "throwing caution to the wind", and I apologise for that.

On your first point it's not that unusual for suspensions to occur. Particularly as the operation is in the process of being disposed of. Meanwhile my point was let's not forget it's business as usual - and a day later an RNS is released speaking of (great) progress.

The Director resignation I'm minded to ask the obvious question: So what? There's plenty of Directors at KZG. The RNS even suggests that he won't be replaced which tells me as much as I need to know. Probably concentrating on his University Lecturing? Here's his linkedin and you can draw your own conclusions:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kasongo-ilunga-04323bb8/?originalSubdomain=na

Once the suspension is lifted which should be soon, let's hope for some stellar comms on further progress, and we'll all feel a bit happier I'm sure. I'll gladly eat Paddy Ashdown's hat and humble pie if I'm wrong. Yum yum yum.

GLA