Member Info for Agricore

Backblaze's Q4 results:
“We were pleased to finish 2022 with strong Q4 overall revenue growth of 23% driven by an increasing proportion of our B2 Cloud Storage service, which grew 44% in Q4,” said Gleb Budman, CEO of Backblaze. “We are excited as we begin 2023 as we see the opportunity to help more small and large businesses reduce the cost of their cloud infrastructure," continued Mr. Budman. “Given the uncertain macroeconomic environment, businesses have even more reason to seek cost savings with best-of-breed cloud services — and Backblaze provides them a solution with B2 Cloud Storage, which is 1/5th the price of traditional cloud storage providers such as Amazon S3. Further, B2 is very easy to use, saving users up to 90% of the time it takes to manage traditional cloud services.”

“Turning to our own financial picture, as we continue to grow revenue, we’re moderating expense growth and are targeting to approach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4 of this year,” continued Mr. Budman.

Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Highlights:

•Revenue of $22.9 million, an increase of 23% year-over-year (YoY).
?B2 Cloud Storage revenue was $9.5 million, an increase of 44% YoY.
?Computer Backup revenue was $13.3 million, an increase of 11% YoY.
•Gross profit of $11.7 million, or 51% of revenue, compared to $9.8 million or 53% of revenue, in Q4 2021.
•Adjusted gross profit of $17.3 million, or 75% of revenue, compared to $14.1 million or 75% of revenue in Q4 2021.
•Net loss was $14.8 million compared to a net loss of $9.6 million in Q4 2021.
•Net loss per share was $0.45 compared to a net loss per share of $0.38 in Q4 2021.
•Adjusted EBITDA was $(2.5) million, or (11)% of revenue, compared to $(1.3) million or (7)% of revenue in Q4 2021.
•Non-GAAP net loss of $9.0 million compared to non-GAAP net loss of $6.5 million in 2021.
•Non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.27 compared to a non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.26 in 2021.
•Cash, short-term investments and restricted cash, non-current totaled $69.7 million as of December 31, 2022.

For full-year 2023 we expect:
•Revenue between $98 million to $102 million.
•Adjusted EBITDA margin between (10)% to (6)%.

Agricore > For me the pleasing thing to see is that they expect to be operationally EBITDA breakeven from Q4 2023 and cash is $69m and their operational cash burn is $13m in 2022 (for the year) and reducing, so there's plenty of runway left.

As an aside ahead of their Q4 results: Backblaze is impressive how many integrations they have - backup Facebook photos, backup your O365 emails etc etc etc.
https://www.backblaze.com/b2/integrations.html?platform=all

Also interesting to see it's TechRadar's recommended:
https://www.techradar.com/reviews/backblaze
Backblaze has a large user base, and even some fans, and it's easy to see why – if you want to back up everything from one computer and its external drives, simply and securely, without spending too much, then it's hard to beat. We appreciate that there are no limits on file sizes and no limits on the amount of data you can send to the cloud.

Just be certain you know exactly what Backblaze is before you part with any cash: it's not for syncing files between computers or getting easy access to your files through a web browser. It's a comprehensive, set-it-and-forget it backup solution for protecting your data should the worst happen, and at that task it provides a great solution.

As such, BackBlaze is our favorite backup service thanks to its unlimited storage at a reasonable cost, aided by its array of restoration methods and ease of use.

Backblaze brings its results out Wednesday.

Meanwhile it has achieved SOC2 compliance which provides further credentials to its offering and unlocks potentially larger customers where SOC2 is a prerequisite.
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/backblaze-receives-soc-2-type-2-certification-2023-02-09

A month or so back it also launched it's US East Data Centre (with a further 1 Exabyte or storage) which also provides further data replication options where, for example, a business wants to back up its data across multiple nodes.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/backblaze-BLZE/stock-news/89768492/backblaze-opens-new-us-east-data-region

The read across implication for HUM's AISC at Kouroussa is extremely interesting. HUM estimate they will save $4.1m/year in fuel (Slide 16 on the presentation below). Make that more than $4.1m maybe?

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/caledonia-mining-crp-solar-power-plant-at-blanket-mine-update-1707220
https://wp-hummingbirdresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/02/2023-Indaba-and-121-Investor-Conference-Corporate-Update-Final-1.pdf

Assuming DBay plus all the Directors voted in have of taking ANX private they'd have 66.84%. They'd need 8.16% out of 33.16% remaining to pass the resolution.

So 25% of the remainder.

Given ANX has been trading higher 50% higher than today I think it's unlikely either PIs and IIs would vote for ACP of 36 sessions. But if DBAY repeated their 150p take out offer I could see that potentially passing, can't you?

GLA

Dowgate this morning puts WATR at £12.
Looking at the trading update seems I chose a propituous time to dive in to WATR!

Great find Chique, thanks! Making India for Global indeed.

1/ Revenue £3.2m vs £3.1m forecast
2/ US Bottling agreement with Republic National Distributing Company - reduces costs for 2023
3/ Vietnamese Tourism up over 1000% YOY
4/ Cost pressures have eased late 2022; margin improvement in 2023

My 2023 Forecast for EISB:
Revenue £6.4m
COS £4m
GP £2.4m
Admin £3.7m
EBITDA -£1.3m
(This compares to EBITDA -£2.2m forecast by WH Ireland)

GLA

Buck,

You're making a gross oversimplification. Brokers do get commissioned for research. The price of that usually covers costs.

They often stake equity themselves (Align) or provide NOMAD services, or receive fees in shares. The bulk of their income is corporate finance, and advisory services to high net worth individuals and IIs. If they churn out research which is nonsense and which sits on the fence (like Motley Fool seem to) then they are not long for this world. Why don't you go and read the accounts of, say, WH Ireland and tell me I'm wrong?

I'd agree research notes don't give a warts and all (majority of buys, few holds and almost no sells), but if you're experienced enough to discern the subtleties of their speech and can read between the lines then you can form a reasonable view of probablities. Also I always do my own research, and run the numbers. Your strong negative views suggest you lacked experience, relied on something you read and got your fingers burned. There's hurt in all that hate.

And Aandi doesn't need to wake up; his input here is valued along with many other LTHs.

GLA

So much for technical signals! The US jobs report has changed sentiment today

Miti, whey is used in the ketosis drinks but wellness covers much more like vitamins and supplements - those don’t contain whey.

Meanwhile 105p is very tempting for a top up. These are trading lower than they did prior to the positive update. Makes no sense to me.

The market has overlooked SUP

Gla

While I agree world demand is limited (but could grow) a tonne is worth $93m. I disagree that the available supply is vast, as much of it is unusable. We cannot yet know whether ATMs is usable. The low percentage comment of 0.14% is irrelevant since the whole point is you crush and alkaline leach it to a concentration. If it’s usable, it could provide another by product which makes the negative AISC even higher by $1860 from a negative $5000 to $6860. Based on 12KTPA that’s worth another $2.2m to the bottom line per annum. (Based on a marginal cost of recovery at 80% of revenue)

That’s based on supplying maybe 1% of current world demand of rubidium.

GLA

Aandi, Well put.

But when I'm reading comments like "EQT also have also 15x more shares than ITM" as though the number of shares in issue are a means of comparison between 2 stocks I wonder why you're bothering to respond. The point about ITM having a longer Cash Runway is a somewhat better point however EQT if it meets its forecasts (and those of all the 4 analysts following it) then it can "lift off" this year whereas there's even less certainty of ITM's ability to "lift over" in 4 years time. Naturally the response is ah ha you said "if". Well, yes, and there is a risk here. But if if comes to pass then this is a 15X multi bag in the medium and more in the long run. If if doesn't, I get diluted and the multi bag falls below 15X. If I can't be diluted maybe I lose 1X. Such is life. I'm convinced by the technology and clever people who have witnessed the technology in action e.g. Gervais Williams. I'm also inclined to believe the excuses (reasons) given by David Palumbo et al on the complexity/hold ups...... and that projects they assumed to close in a few years usually stretch to 10+ years. Their experience is my experience in a not unrelated engineering discipline.

Meanwhile I cannot see a future valuation of ITM at over £15 even *IF* it achieves "take off" speed in 2027. I say that as a previous ITM holder who got out in 2021. There are a number of US and Chinese firms doing what ITM do. Whereas I have not seen, worldwide, an equivalent technology to EQT.

It's painful to sit on a loss and there's vast amounts of negativity about EQT.

Yet, if if happens......

GLA

The re-rating events are these:
1. Certainty of finance through to Kouroussa production. My estimates are that there's a chance of a shortfall relying on Yanfolila cashflow. But there's also the option of further finance.
2. News on Dugbe - Sale, JV or other.
3. Gold price rises (with support). While we've briefly seen $1950 we are now back at mid $1850 so I think optimism about expecting $100/ounce more is nice but by no means certain.
4. Regardless of point 1 "certainty" if we can scrape through to Kouroussa go live then it will take 3-6 months to get to a point where we start to see that lower overall AISC as well as combined revenue of 2 mines.
5. Also, to be fair, some improvement to the level of stability returning to the region. There's the Russian Wagner Group in Mali, there's ISIS, there's a coup in Burkina Faso..... it's not exactly the most risk free region to be investing in. An end to the Ukraine war would probably be part of this.

While all this may seem pessimistic, remember the book value here is currently just under 50p a share. Assuming some level of dilution then we should still see well above 40p-45p book value. If all 3 sites could get producing long term P/B should be 1.5x-2x so somewhere 75p-100p. The long term dividend would model through to about 4p/share so a 50% yield at today's prices.

At 8.3p HUM is a cheap play to multi bag although much still relies on keeping the current performance level for the next 5 months, and this is why you are paying 8.3p.... history shows HUM could step back before stepping forward more.

I'm happy to hold albeit with a sense of foreboding mixed with hope.

GLA

Kunn, you're presumably writing this today in reference to last Friday's rise in LUCY? So it's not "today" is it? Meanwhile Apewisdom doesn't show anything like the level of interest you say: https://apewisdom.io/stocks/LUCY/
Only 2 mentions of LUCY at the time of checking (18:18 GMT, 6th Feb 2023)

GLA

At $93,000 a KG Rubidium is a very interesting addition to the mix. The question though is whether it can be extracted commercially, which either makes it significant or worthless:
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-rubidium.pdf

A game of two thirds..... 33% improvement to grade, average QoQ 2.45g/tonne grade as well as a QoQ 33% improvement to tonnes mined. The Q1 2023 outlook is for about the same (with declines pencilled in based on the forward guidance)

The question is whether cash flows are sufficient to complete Kouroussa. We are short by $15m according to CG. (If not then they slow down and conserve cash)
My back of a *** packet numbers are:
Q1: $52.3m rev - $35.3m AISC - $2.5m Royalty - $7.5m Finance Interest = $7.5m + $3.7m inventory = $12.2m
Q2: $35m rev - $27.5m AISC - $2m Royalty - $7.5 Finance Interest = -$2m

Q1 - This is based on Q1 being a repeat of Q4 2022 (same grade and production). The $7.5m interest is an estimate.
Q2 - This is where the remaining 3 quarters revert to the mid point of the 85koz guidance equally (i.e. 85000-28264 /3) = 19k oz/qtr. Keeping gold at $1850 and using the new AISC of $1450.

"We don't make it" - things which would alter my *** packet:
1. Cash flow from Dugbe - i.e. sale or similar
2. Further borrowing beyond what we've agreed with Coris etc
3. Discounted share issue
4. Gold goes higher than $1850
5. The 2023 guidance proves too conservative (Q1 to Q2 is a big drop)
6. We sell Yanfolila?

GLA

SED showing RSI strength, MACD, momentum and KST

Blue day Monday

What is actually the most encouraging is that the warrants have just tripled in price (albeit from $0.20 to $0.60). This is the "right" to buy a LUCY share at a fixed $7.50 price. In other words people out there are willing to "bet" $0.60 a share that LUCY will go higher than $8.10, whereby they can convert their warrant and make a (paper) profit, or a real one if they then sell their LUCY shares.

This also means people who bought in at the IPO and kept their warrants are now only down by a little over 30%.... much less than it has been previously.

Clearly an RNS will follow here.

Oh and I'm sure you've all done the maths I know this already, but LUCY was valued at 5.7p/share to TEK in Oct 22. At today's market price that's an additional 11.4p/share value to TEK. I've topped up at 19p on the news returning TEK to my largest single holding.

GLA

Topped up today at $2.77. Insane price.

Meanwhile:
1. Backblaze reports in a week. YTD (i.e. since the last analysis in December 2022) its share price is up 17% so the value of TMT's holding is now worth $3.3m more. Barring some disasterous update (the last one and outlook was good)
2. Lyft is up 50% YTD and UBER is up 25% YTD. Why does that matter? Bolt's (TMT's largest holding) valuation is "mark to market" against these comparative holdings. Again, barring any disasterous update about Bolt the portents are on the up for an eventual IPO of Bolt.
3. The remainder of the portfolio are fleas on the back of these 2 elephants. Yet there's lots of potential for these to grow and flourish. It was very encouraging in the last update that there were a number of write downs and write offs but not that many. An equal number of uplifts too. And uplifts can be multiples of the investment whereas you can only lose 1xinvestment on a write down. That's the nature of the beast.

GLA