Member Info for Adw198

Quick reminder I posted my sell before it was printed*. There should be no doubt I was a holder.

*unlike the liars like WOS and Mullins who just tell you they’ve topped up

Dozzerwba might be right about the suppression, although perhaps the SP has just crashed since he told us to expect the following in November

“Revenue, if 2 wells online next week. 1300000 USD per month. NIL PSC costs due carry forward expenditure.

Plan for 6 to 10 wells online in 2025.“

Instead 2025 has given 1 well producing circa $200k of revenue (when paid).

Imagine being that wrong but remain so insistent he’s right!

Same with the PC games Doc. When we queried it, we were dismissed as deramping and now it seems the penny is dropping that it shouldn’t take 3 months to sign a contract…and then to claim confusion on the tax.

These boards would work better if there was a healthy exchange of both sides of the argument. If someone was short it would be good to hear their reasoning and presumably the longs would have a better case if they actually did. I’m sure this will be deliberately mischaracterised as me saying I’m short etc but beyond caring what people think!

Astonishing he had so many disciples for his 5am sermons about sovereign wealth funds and made up quotes.

And noticeable how none of his comrades have queried his absence.

That’s a very good post by Proquo , especially this bit

“Once you have oil, you start having metrics by which to judge success or otherwise; costings, bopd, cash-burn, funding requirements, timelines, lead-ins and so on”

And that’s the problem. The cold hard facts and figures (as opposed to the exploration dream) aren’t great. The company has arrived at the Promised Land and realised 160bopd isn’t great, doesn’t cover costs and thus can’t fund even minor operational developments.

So after becoming a producer the only way forward to get someone else in.

@acquisace

He’s not even confirmed he’s in talks for a buyout with anyone. That was reference a JV. Given he’d be acting unlawfully if that was fabricated, I suspect it’s true - but the question is how serious the talks are.

“Based on your reply to Adw, he's trying to assert that the value of the oil is related to the current mcap. Well done for pointing out that this is nonsense”

Incredible someone can argue against words they haven’t read (or been said).

My contention is simply that a negotiation will reflect the respective strengths of both parties. One is a cash distressed AIM listed explorer in an immature jurisdiction, the other is the regionally heavyweight. And now the heavyweight holds all the oil, as they have done since October.

It’ll be absolutely no problem if I’m wrong, I’ll just learn from it. It’s why I’ve asked for similar examples of AIM single asset sales for multiples of the MCAP.

Thanks and yes agreed all around, especially about the (in)ability for a potential partner / purchaser to build a stake on the open market.

You (all!) know my thoughts on the need for funds and I’m surprised they’ve lasted this long. It makes me wonder if a deal is imminent, hence being particularly interested as a non holder.

I think a PC Heron field buyout is the most likely option and that will lead to a material short term increase in the SP. I suspect they’ll need to be a modest raise in the meantime to a) keep the lights on and b) try to prove up the field to give a better negotiating hand.

Hope it works out well for you and keep the insight coming please

Unnd, you know I value your posts so hopefully this is taken in that spirit of open discourse.

$165m…if we took even half of that it would be circa £60m, nearly 3 times the total company value.

I have to be honest, that really doesn’t sound likely.

I tried to catch a falling knife today and have the scars to show for it.

I’d thought it was well overdone at 3.10p, obviously reading too much into the EBITDA being towards the top of expectations.

The lack of mention of trading since year end could be read 2 ways: -

1. It was also disappointing (despite the good weather) and thus they didn’t want to add more bad news

2. It was decent but they want the new CEO to be able to start on the front foot a bit more.

My experience and instinct tells me companies don’t usually conceal good news, so I suspect the former. That said, this still seems to be making decent money and acknowledges plenty of room for improvement, so I’ll stick around if only for the expected bounce.

Good luck folks

“So we might get 3p now and another penny in 18 months? I'd take that right now.“

Plus the upside from production to be fair (notwithstanding the point that some of the members here might be RIP by then!).

If there are any example of deals like this on AIM, (ie a single asset going for multiples of the MCAP) I’d genuinely be very keen to hear of the company names.

I recognise my terrible experience with Asiamet might have given me a disproportionately cynical view of AIM, but equally I suspect it’s more the norm than the exception.

4 months to complete a big deal - compared m to 3 months to physically sign a small deal that they’ve now decided they’re not sure about.

Thanks for the research Unnd, appreciated 👍

I think a Petrovis private placing is very possible.

If they believe in the business enough to give a $1m loan at mates rates then they may as well pony up a bit more for a shed load of discounted shares instead.

That said, I still expect a similar type of raise as last year, where they take some, MB takes some, some go to Retail. All at a chunky discount.

A single asset is my point, ie not the entire company.

Whether it’s a “proven” asset is open to debate.

Don’t forgot that would still leave the renewables and new blocks with MATD.

I agree it would be below most people’s average but if the alternative is another dilutive raise, I think it would make sense, especially retaining the big upside (accepting that would take several years).

I just don’t see (m)any deals valuing a single asset at multiples of a current MCAP.

Surprised you don’t think that would be a good deal Doc.

It would represent the full MCAP on the first $30m, then another 25% on the 2nd payment - followed by free potential upside.

If I was a shareholder of the purchaser I’d be wondering about paying such a premium for a single asset.

I was in Asiamet when a potential JV partner walked away from a deal on the basis they couldn’t justify valuing 1 asset at such a premium to MCAP. Asiamet also offer a sobering example of a company who have been in discussions with multiple interested parties for years - with no deal being made.

I think a JV or sale (probably the latter) will happen.

My main point is there no alternative viable plan - which of course will impact the price someone would be willing to pay.

“if there is a raise then it would be for accretive reasons ie to add value anyway.”

And we’re off! One by one all the posters who swore blind there wouldn’t be a raise will tell us how happy they are when it arrives. Happens every time.

160bopd doesn’t pay the bills so whilst it’ll be spun as allowing the company to add value, fundamentally it will indeed be to keep the lights on. There will be some validity to the accretive reasoning - they desperately need to show some promise from 1 or more of Heron2, Gobi and Gazelle.

Yes Thorn, it was me who said they’d be se sensible to wait before spending money they hadn’t yet received from PC. You and others were insistent they were fully funded for the 2025 plans at all 4 sites.

Since then H1 performances has dropped and there no longer seems to be an inexpensive fix to increase production. Obviously payment hasn’t arrived.

So I can fully see why there’s no plans to do anything at the moment. Even if / when the money arrives they won’t have enough to do anything material with the other non producing wells.

It’s now a binary bet on a JV / takeover or drifting into obscurity as there’s no other viable business plan at present. Obviously things can change but hard to see what could turn it around here.

Agreed they’ve given no clear plans to do anything. Even the stated plans to reduce Opex aren’t firm.

All of which rather contradicts your previous assertions they were fully funded for this years plans.

Sit back, try to make the cash last till someone bails the company out is the best cash business plan it now seems.