Member Info for Adw198

We both know how badly the last Zeus note worked out - you quoted it repeatedly at the time. Do I really need to go back and share it?

WOS used to quote it all the time too, hmm food for thought

The one well that produces oil has dropped to 160bopd. It was previously 200bopd which was itself at the very lowest end of expectations.

Most of us (including me) thought they’d be announcing a plan to increase the output, but as above they instead announced a further 20% drop - with no mention of a plan to increase it. That was very bad news. This was apparently one of the best wells ever drilled in country, a potential company maker.

The expected payment if purely a minor delay not necessarily a massive thing, but the context is PC continually kicking the can down the road. Plus there’s short term cash flow issue now meaning a raise in a challenging time - exactly what he raised to avoid last year. There’s also a risk that extra tax will now be applicable so PC might walk away if it’s on them to pay or less margin if on us. And who out of long term producing and exporting experts PC, or virgin newbies MATD are we pencilling in as being more likely to be right?

“I'm planning to do absolutely nothing and just wait for the Heron Deal.“

So no more top ups at 1.25 / 1.85 depending on which audience you’re lying to.

What a day we’ve had here.

There was no drilling in H1 2024 mate. No costs of running a producing well, trucking it our trusty partners PC and no new licences to fund.

If you think costs suddenly reduced January to mid March that’s fine.

The word from the horses mouth was the monthly costs were less than $1.1m. It’s pretty much that simple!

We’re all speculating on the monthly running costs because he said he didn’t know them.

I’ve given a logic based assessment of ballpark figures and so has Unnd.

You’ve clearly misunderstood his answer (and our explanations) and now can’t admit it, so we get further made up quotes.

You’ve given me a laugh today pal!

Stick to your Gobi fantasy and leave the financials to the adult.

But be sure to pop back after the raise :)

“Some are suggesting the $1.1M is the amount needed to cover the per month cost whilst we're in a low operating expenditure stage”

Nobody is suggesting that. It’s a straightforward matter of fact that he’s saying the monthly costs were less than that amount. We don’t know how much less because the man himself didn’t know!

“clearly stated low cost period where Buck himself says costs are very low.“

Where did he describe the monthly running costs of that time as a low cost period?! More made up quotes.

They’d just started producing and taken on new licences - having rattled through $7m July - December.

He said very clearly that although he didn’t know the monthly costs they were definitely less than the value of the oil in storage. Which he’d earlier said was worth $1.1m.

If he’d have replaced the phrase “oil in storage” with “$1.1m” would you still be peddling this narrative?

Somehow you interpret him to be saying he doesn’t know the monthly costs but knows it’s less than the circa $225k a month for the oil they were producing.

And then you come on telling us to stick to what he actually said! Another one caught out. I suspect you genuinely believed what you said earlier and now you just lack the humility to acknowledge how wrong you are, partly because you’ve been quoting Tom Winiforths comments on how thick many of the investors in these types of stock are. Aren’t ironies wonderful!

It’s nonsense to claim that a company will massively reduce overheads exactly as they start producing - all in a highly inflationary period and lots of other increased operating activity / costs.

“Q. What are the monthly operating costs running at for full operation of the company?

A. I dont actually have that at hand but its less than the money thats going to. e coming in when we get paid for our oil in storage.”

Exactly. The oil in storage was worth $1.1m.

He was saying the monthly expenditure is less than that.

Time to reflect and show some humility that you misunderstood.

Or just keep posting your earlier posts where you just make up phrases and figures.

You seem pretty concerned about the lifestyle a man you’ve never met.

If I was you I’d focus on the message / research rather than stressing about how my day is measuring up to your weekend away.

And my analysis here has so far been much better than most. You know it and I know it - and that’s what really hurts.

In fairness I haven’t left the house today, too hungover.

But there’s been lots of good research and insight shared - might not make for pleasant reading but it’ll be more constructive than your reserve team Telegram echo chamber mate!

Well I for one don’t anticipate an offer of 4.5times the current entire MCAP of the company for 1 asset.

But since when did fundamental logic come into Investors price predictions, which I thought were entitled dependent on MMs, liquidity and 10year charts :)

“In my opinion only PC are making things difficult on purpose for a low ball offer”

Yes I think I agree with this. My only slight doubt is why they would even offer to do the selling and lend us equipment if that was their intent, ie wouldn’t their agenda be better achieved by being unhelpful all along? As I say though, on balance I agree with you.

Where did those rule of thumb calcs come btw, is $5 in the ground a generally accepted ballpark figure? I really can’t see them paying anywhere remotely close to that, or even half of that tbh.

Very well set out Unnd, clearly demonstrating MATD are a loss making entity with very limited cash runway.

A field sale could of course negate the need for a raise but otherwise it’s an absolute certainty. Perhaps those negotiations are already very advanced, but if not how quickly can they get it sorted given PCs behaviour thus far.

Someone brighter and / or better researched than me would need to explain how this would be transferred to a buyer…

“In addition, as outlined in Note 18(b) the Group is required to meet minimum exploration commitments on its Block XX Production Sharing Contract (PSC) of approximately $6.4 million. The Company previously reached an agreement with the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (MRPAM) that this underspent minimum exploration commitment can be transferred to and spent on exploration and appraisal activities during the exploitation period, which has commenced as the application for a 25-year Exploitation Licence (EL) for Block XX was approved in July 2021.“

He was asked “What are the monthly running costs for full operation of the company”

And answered

“It’s less than the money we’re going to get FOR OUR OIL IN STORAGE”

1h 6m 50secs at the AGM

The oil in storage was worth $1.1m.

Some are assuming he said the monthly income was more than the monthly operating costs, but if you look at closely he’s clearly saying the oil in storage value exceeded full monthly operating costs.

“Petro Matad will receive a net back of more than $40 per barrel based on a sales price of $70 per barrel”

It’s now only doing 160bopd (is that going to decline further) and oil is circa 10% lower. There’s absolutely no way they can sign off the accounts and that’s even before we mention the fact there’s no actual income because there’s currently a tax dispute - with a company who took 3months to simply sign a contract. How and when will this be resolved and what if PC are right and the margin is even less due to tax?

This has got plenty more to drop yet.

A guy who is invested and miles underwater has a bigger agenda than the guy who isn’t invested at all. Surely that’s a fair and logical statement in general terms?

Onto the specifics neither me or Gigi knows what the current cash burn is. I’ve highlighted in the first 6months last year (of not being a producer, not doing any drilling, not having the new licences) they went through nearly $3m. Then another $7m half 2 (albeit we can ringfence perhaps $3.5m for Gobi and heron 2.

Gigi believes that cash burn figure will massively shrink for the first 6month here, largely based on his own made up phrase of there being a lean operating model but can’t point to a single example of where they’ll save so much money. It’s counter intuitive to think it’ll be less, but I do accept it’s possible given nobody knows the costs (including the CEO apparently).

Whereas he thinks anyone who doesn’t accept his made up phrases and counter intuitive arguments is hysterical and simply trying to get a better price. There is absolutely no chance of me investing until there’s a raise so don’t worry about that.

And when there is you’ll all be back saying how great it is because you’re incapable of reflecting on the latest facts.

“Block 7 baseline study incorporating Desktop studies, preparations & some field work (as above)”

If they have only spent $50k as you claim then that leaves $930k of spend left to go before end of next year. Which months is that getting paid?!

“Evaluations are underway to support a set of low-cost activities for 2025 in Block XX focused on operating cost reduction and production increases at Heron 1 and the potential to conduct workovers/well tests at Heron 2, Gazelle 1 and Gobi Bear 1“

Nowhere was the phrase a lean operating model mentioned and certainly not achieved.

They might spend some money to reduce existing operating costs that they didn’t have last year when rattling through significantly more money than you claim they’re currently spending.

It’s illogical