Member Info for Adw198

You won’t get any figures from that lot Doc.

Just lots of backslapping as the great news they claim again gets laughed at by the market.

Results to come - how on earth can they get the results signed off without announcing they’ll need to raise funds.

This has A LOT further to fall imo.

16th January (after 2.5months of production)

“At current oil prices the Block XX crude already in storage will generate revenue net to Petro Matad of circa $600,000”

For the other half of Jan, Feb, March, April (3.5months) the additional NET back is either 500k or 330k of that also needs royalties etc applying

And that’s assuming no additional taxes are due which PC aren’t sure about and the authorities haven’t been able to answer in a month.

Production volume has been declining since the get go - starting at 200-300, then 200 and currently 160bopd

It’s a disaster really

Not done exact calcs but give or take this is how I understand it

Invoice submitted for circa $1.7m of oil PC have been sent between November and April.

PC decide to reduce the amount to 70% of the amount eg $1.2m

But from that $1.2m tax etc it reduces to $800k.

So of the remaining $500k that’s being withheld, presumably that also needs the same royalties etc need paying taking it down to circa another 330k.

So $1.13m received for 6 months production.

Am I missing anything?

Perhaps the withheld money has already had royalties factored in so it might be were due 500m net.

Getting something (anything) obviously good news.

But I’m also confused by the numbers. I’d thought he’d previously (perhaps at the AGM?) said the stored oil was worth $1.2m, which I took to mean worth that to MATD. Certainly in January it was worth $600k net.

Either way $1.18m for 6 months oil is truly awful, especially if that’s not even the net figure. And production is now declining

First glance at figures so I may have misunderstood

“Just my opinion, but I feel selling up now seems a strange thing to do after holding for a long time; we have only just started producing oil for the first time ever”

The SP has been in its lowest range ever since production started, it was 60% higher the day before we produced than today.

It hasn’t ever gone above 2.50 since and has seen all time lows, nearly all of the time under 1.80p.

I maintain it was mainly because of the H2 news, which essentially led to an enforced new strategy of seeking a partner.

Others called it a tree shake. :)

Very poor article, just a one sided take on the sector without looking at the specifics, or even considering the benefit of competitors going out of business. Also a needlessly spiteful dig at public sector employees.

I do accept some concerns about the discount retail sector, but ultimately this is still making decent cash.

I think the July trading update is really going to tell us the extent of their struggles. As I’ve said, the poor quarter last year on the LFLs and very good weather this time could give some excellent headline figures.

Longer term there’s probably some work to be done but also fair to note the new stores are seemingly doing well and France is still growing.

I’m not too worried but must admit I did expect it to start moving up ahead of the ex divi.

What I say is you’re the same poster as WOs, that you’re trying to trick people and your charting prowess is as good as your attempts to run multiple aliases.

Fortunately for you there’s a merry band of naive posters (Thorn, Tt1981, Dozzerwba, Proquo etc etc) who will swallow it all up.

Lovely!

I asked 3 questions, restated given you’ve not answered 2 of them.

1. Who frowned on you for taking a deep dive?

(My contention is nobody did, it’s just a strawman argument)

2. What date did you invest here?

(Presumably the morning you said you did with a few 3 figure purchases all morning)

3. has your deep dive also considered the current cash position?

(You appear to have accepted there might be a raise, presumably because your deep dive showed there’s no money left and a loss making business)

Nobody is discounting geo political event, I specifically said oil prices going up are helpful. But more pertinent to the investment case is the short - medium term finances.

And I’m not sure when “Cash injection from parties as mentioned by Buck” was in fact mentioned. So we’ll call that question 4.

Thanks

@realpro

“When I invest in something I take a deep dive into it. Apparently that's frowned upon by some posters here.”

Who frowned on you for taking a deep dive?

The frowning is because you appear a carbon copy of a previous poster called WIseOwl who was also very big on the geo political macro situation. He disappeared just after the terrible Op Update and you arrived, claiming to have bought in on a morning where there were only a couple of 3 figure buys. You also went from claiming you only stumbled across the company (on the biggest faller list) to then claiming to have been a previous investor / poster here.

What date did you invest here and has your deep dive also considered the current cash position?

So this is what I can’t figure out. If say PC do buy the field or JV it, does it automatically follow they’ll choose to supply the refinery? Appreciate they’ll presumably save the cost of exporting, but going back to the geo political angle, how does that benefit the Chinese state?

Happy to be educated on this one.

So when they announced the results in June 21 it included this

“To ensure funding of the Company through the Exploitation Licence application process and the preparations for the next phase of operations, the Company's largest and founding shareholder, Petrovis Matad Inc. (Petrovis) agreed to make available to the Company a loan facility of up to $1.5 million, against which the Company can draw funds as required. $0.45 million was drawn in June 2021 to meet ongoing running costs”

So they bundled it up with the results RNS, so hard to say with certainty whether it was deserving of a seperate RNS. I now suspect we’ll get the same this time as cash must really be tight.

@doc Yes I wondered the same whether it would be RNS’able but felt on balance it wouldn’t. I’ll look back to see if they did announce it out at the time when they previously drew down on it.

The refinery being built is a definite positive (albeit it’s currently scheduled for 2028). So is the increased price of oil (albeit there are some fanciful predictions) here.

But the here and now is the results are coming out and the cash must be down to some loose change. It might be they’ve already drawn on the Petrovis loan but it still needs paying back and there’s no way 160bopd can keep the business running, so that’s the big issue right now.

The fact they’re not raised yet might be taken as a positive that they think there’s some good news pending, eg a field sale or JV. We could also potentially take a positive read into PCs obvious game playing, ie it suggests they deep in negotiations. But I’d say it’s much more likely the next news will be a raise than a deal.

That’s how I see the full picture and possibilities.

We all have winners and losers and mixed timing Thorn.

In general (not pointed) terms, hence its good to keep an open mind and balanced perspective. There are no certainties anywhere on AIM.

Lots of people very keen to brag about what a good job they’re doing ignoring people - who they constantly continue to name check. :)

Not a lot of comment on the company or its prospects. I suspect a few are wary of making further false claims and outlandish predictions.

Hopefully that’s the end of the drop and the start of the climb back up.

I’d expect / hope a steady ish rise up to ex dividend date on the 26th. Then the really big news that will probably define the next several months will be the July trading update.

Given last year was down on LFL (seemingly on account of the poor weather) and this years weather was excellent, I think we can be cautiously optimistic about some decent LFL figures. That could really reassure and aligned with the new ceo grab back some + sentiment.

I timed my buys very badly but not too worried in the medium term.

If you’re invested I absolutely hope you lose it all, just like you and others rejoice in my losses here.

And yes explaining why I think a raise is coming is definitely analysis. Just like you were allowed to predict winter revenue of £5m-£10m.

Readers can decide who has more credibility, most prefer your unresearched wishful thinking which is fine - and explains why you’re all underwater hoping for Israel to save you.

For completeness I’m not currently holding, but was holding when I also accused of being a troll etc.

My understanding is doc is currently a holder, albeit at much reduced levels.

Either way we’re both allowed to post and I think there’s more analysis that’s comes from the so called bashers than the other side. I don’t think this goes much deeper than a group of posters not liking views that aren’t all entirely positive. And a fair few of you expect to be able to tell lies without being called out. Had you not been such tools I may well have just walked on but for whatever reason it’s enjoyable correcting cheaters.

Yes not much actually company chat today. Just a lot of people who don’t want to discuss the company giving running filtering commentaries.

I’m pleased we at least established the below claims made about MB confirming there was cash to fund this years work were entirely false. Shame it took the usual abuse and pile on but par for the course now.

“MB could easily allay shareholders concerns here, by releasing a statement reiterating the comments made at the AGM. That production from H1 is sufficient to cover costs of the near term operational expenditure”.

Trolls don’t want to talk about the company. Or certainly not this one, here.

@master

“British Ambassador had a meeting with mining ministry this morning.

We should have the rns on Monday”.

That’s interesting, where’s that intell come from please?