Member Info for Adw198

So they agreed a JV over several years, but the authorities said the multi year aspect wasn’t compliant?

“Not sure why anyone would think a deal concluded this drilling season would mean the work program finalised for 2025”

Someone asked him that question and he said he wouldn’t expect a JV to be done in time for this years drilling season. That suggests (in part) a deal isn’t imminent.

Personally I think a JV is the less likely outcome, a full field sale with staged payments is what I’d expect. As referenced, that RNS could come at any time - the money will take considerable time to land though.

Hi Tenbag / Margaritas

How have the lads on Telegrsm taken the news the much promised £5m - £10m revenue you promised has infact come in as winter AND Spring revenue being a mere $810k?

So was I spreading FUD when querying your prediction, or were you talking utter b u l l s h i t? And was that a deliberate attempt to mis lead or are you really so stupid?

People will have to decide for themselves.

“JV RNS fully expected soon IMHO”

Very possible. Although we need to note MB specifically said he didn’t expect anything to be complete in time for this years drilling. Presumably because any deal would need regulatory approval. The authorities are currently taking a month and counting to decide what, if any, additional royalties are due on the existing sales agreement - one they were actually a counterparty to. So irrespective of a JV being announced they’ll need to be funds to keep going till JV revenue came in. In fairness if they announce a JV the SP will right make a big move up, so a raise could be at much less punitive levels. Perhaps that’s the plan.

“the Cash Injection Buck referenced (more details required but possibly part of the Arab investment flowing into Mongolia & also referenced by Buck)”

You can’t / won’t provide any evidence of this apparently cash injection reference.

Not sure why my last 2 messages have been cut off.

Anyway, just saying there’s a funding gap because income doesn’t match expenditure. And surely to give a loan Petrovis would want to k kw how and when it’d be repaid. I don’t know how one could answer that?

….

As income

Whether they need to issue a Going Concern statement isn’t a matter of opinion. We can potentially / sensibly discuss whether they can get it signed off without issuing a material uncertainty warning, but that would need someone to explain how they can justify funding 12months operations based on the projected 160bopd income. Which Id suggest is somewhere between extremely unlikely and impossible.

To all those saying they can just borrow form Petrovis, well at least that’s a start in terms of recognising a funding gap as income

Yes disappointing and slightly surprising end to the week.

My guess is the reports of a really bad May across Retail have perhaps pulled us back.

I’m not sure I’ve said a raise would imminent for the last 6months. Certainly the last 3 I’ve been on the view it’ll be soon and I’m very surprised it’s not been yet. So happy to say my expectations / predictions were wrong on the timefram. But I still think it’s almost inevitable for the simple reason that there is a cash burn (which you now seem to accept) and no known plans to address that cash burn. They don’t have the money to bring another well to production.

So how else does a loss making company survive - a loan might keep the wolf from the door but isn’t a business plan.

The only way there won’t be one is if they get a JV with upfront payment or sale.

@unnd

“If it is funding in the open market and not Petrovis then that will give shareholders an indication of the likely JV happening on favourable terms”.

Can you explain the above? Wouldn’t a private placing with Petrovis (who are on the Board) be more of a positive indication of a positive JV or sale?

Nobody (sensible) has called the stock worthless. Even I described a £20m offer for a single asset as low ball.

Easier to argue with a strawman though.

We can all have a different perspective. But most the logic offered by the rampant rampers fails on its own terms.

Eg how you simultaneously claim the MCAP won’t have a bearing on the sale price - but then claim the alleged derampers are being paid by a purchaser to suppress the SP?

Make it make sense?!

Investors entire modus operandi is to quote a low, then quote a high and say “if only you’d bought and sold then”.

It’s easy in hindsight. His own trades here consist of 6 years worth of buying, with his lowest being circa 1.75p. He certainly didn’t practice what he preaches and sell when it hit the magical 2.40.

He’s quite a remarkable poster, filtering Wigster for asking a question of AI was peak stupidity. :)

“Wigster - all that shows is the limitations of AI.

For a start we don't know yet whether 160 bopd is the limit for H1”

And who, anywhere, said it was? It’s a simple FACT that is what it’s currently producing. Maybe they’ll fit the infamous sandscreen and it’ll do multiples as promised. Or maybe it’ll continue to decline.

Do you think Investor is real, or a character Doc? Some like WOs, Tenbag, Gigi are obvious but he’s a troubling case if he really is that thick.

Good to know it’s not just us mere mortals who Investor sneers at - his expertise also dwarfs Artificial Intelligence.

If only he knew when to buy and sell!

Whatever PC or anyone else is prepared to pay, it’s also important to consider the one way or another more funds will be needed this year (probably very soon).

Hence my original point that any offer must be looked it in the context of the alternative being a discounted raise.

If you don’t want to take £20m, or £30m etc, that’s fine - just understand you’ll be giving away a decent chunk of the company for a very small valuation. And you’ll still need to sell the field next year anyway.

Some amusing analogies about what you can / can’t buy for 45p / $5 etc.

Big difference lads between buying a product that’s for sale in the supermarket and buying something that’s deep underground in Mongolia.

All good fun reading the panic though

If / when this hits sub 1p I might re purchase the exact amount of shares I sold (for a loss) at 1.81p.

Partly for a laugh and partly because according to the freedom of speech police I need to own to have an opinion. But mainly because there’s money to make trading volatile shares supported by looooonstics like we have here.

“So, not 25p-40p bbl according to ADW then?? LOL”

If you can quote me giving these figures go for it and I’ll sail off into the sunset never posting again.

Tell us what you think a potential SALE price for the field will be?

I’ll happily say I don’t think the initial cash payment would exceed the current £20m.

It’ll be staged won’t it, meaning little / no return to shareholders.