Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

OK I said I'd cover what I thought was now the main risk - liquidity. Again this is my interpretation on what was discussed not the gospel truth.
It's pretty clear that the plan when $100m was borrowed that although the majority of the cost of Kouroussa would be met by the loan Yani was expected to at least break even in cash terms and hopefully contribute to the cash spend.
Clearly things have not turned out that way. First the bad news:
- Yani has underperformed and has been a cash drain resulting in a likely shortfall of cash to complete Kouroussa
- in case anybody hasn't noticed there is world wide inflation and thus budgets are under strain and are likely to overshoot
- the VAT issue was not budgeted for and it thus a negative
And now some better news:
- Dan confirmed that the Kour project is still wthin budget. All the materials are fixed price but some other costs e.g. travel consummables will not be. Despite this is believes it is still within budget. He professed surprise that they have not yet received unexpected costs due to inflation but they are on red alert for this
- the $100m loan is covenant light and thus the bank is unlikely to call the loan in except in the case of outright default
- $20m of overdraft facilities are available and unencumbered
- there is room to flex working capital as it is not particularly stretched right now
- there is the possibility of going back and requesting another $30m. Whilst not guaranteed Coris bank are keen to diversify away from BF and amazingly Mali is seen as lower risk

So all in all it's squeaky bum time. If we reach the promised land then Anthony was laying heavy hints the grades at Kour are even better than officially stated and having learned the hard lessons of mining at Yani, know how will kick in and it will be a much slicker operation at Kour.
Maybe we'll get to see that day or maybe not.
Basically it's sh*t or bust. No middle ground
That's all I have to say on the matter for the moment...

This is what I understand operationally has happened. When Anthony was appointed the mining operation was in disarray. Their biggest problem was the reliability of the equipment particularly excavators. They were down to less than 50% availability due to lack of maintenance and spare parts. 85% is industry standard, The old contractors were given the boot and the new ones employed. The new contractors are the biggest in West Africa and have the largest fleet and most robust supply chains due to the scale of their operation. Currently availability is above 85% but this is recent so will not necessarily be reflected fully in this quarters ASIC. In addition there is a bunch of workstreams aimed at improvements. Each will be incremental but together added up will be meaningful. For example they are moving to electronic explosives. Before each round analysis is undertaken so the ore body to be mined is moved out as one mass and its integrity maintained rather than being mixed with non ore bodies which would reduce the gold content.
Another reason for the low yield is that they have been mining in the middle of Yan East pit where alluvial flow has mixed in with the main ore body resulting in low yields. They plan to go back to the north side in Q3-Q4 where the gold is "tabular" i.e. not disturbed. Yields are higher which should thus flow through to ASIC.
We shall see - the results will be the proof of the pudding.
I'll come back to you on the financial later. Need to go now...

The AGM lasted 2hrs - I felt personally that I managed to ask all the questions I wanted answering and they were all answered obviously within the rules about information flow.
Was Dan humble? I think frank and honest were the two words that came to me. Now I might regret saying that but that's how he and the other Board members came over.
They did NOT sugar coat the problems and recognise that there is risk to the business. Providing Anthony continues to provide significant operational improvements the risk lies mostly on the liquidity side.

Hi Sotolo
You are right to be concerned. Prices are falling in pretty much all metals plus the situation in SA seems to be going from bad to worse. I've just read about record power outages due to attacks at power plants. But then what are the alternatives:
- other miners in other jurisdictions. Broadly the same problems although metallic and geographical diversification is good
- physical assets. They are going nowhere price wise in a recession and yield nothing
- fixed assets they are now yield 3% plus for USD denominated assets with a maturity of 1+ years. Maybe but capital losses loom if rates go further
- developed country shares. They are certainly in favour and I do have some shares in these economies but so much is valued not on fundamentals but on a wing and prayer that somehow tech will deliver
- cash. Yes you have optionality but not much else
So I am left with the feeling that stocks like this are worth holding on to. They have very low PE which will protect them to an extent. They throw off cash and will continue to pay dividends. They are low cost producers so will eventually reap the rewards when higher priced mines are knocked out. They are managed by tough resourceful people which is an asset worth investing in in any industry in any jurisdiction.
I'm calling Mr Market wrong on this and we'll see whether votes turn into weights (to paraphrase Benjamin Graham )

Ah but a stopped clock is right 1/60th of the time which makes it more accurate than our esteemed interlocuters

Excellent thanks!

I'm due to go to the AGM with a letter of representation but realised there was no address in the letter. I'm assuming the meeting is in London but when I looked at what I thought the relevant RNS was, again no address!
I know I'm being a bit thick about this but can anyone enlighten me...?

Playboy - I feel your pain I really do.
Mind you DB isn't the only one taking the ^iss.
Everyday now for the last week my local GP has been sending out texts to all patients with the following message "Due to staff shortages and sickness please use our website http/......"
Just as well I'm not requiring their services yet. Mind you HUM is giving me high blood pressure!

Anon - you describe my position exactly. Problem is that DB is hanging on Teressa May style with the sofa up against the door.
Unless shareholders push him out he'll drain the company dry and as a bunch we are pathetically passive...

Thanks and offer...?

No shares traded today, crap results (as everyone knew) and chairman going without warning.

Has anybody tried to get a quote today? If so I'd be interested to know what the bid/offers are....

Poor chap - I think all the technical stuff (like adding stuff up) is getting a bit much for him.
He just watns to know - WHEN HE'S GETTING HIS MONEY BACK.
Ah the $64k question....
In the meantime all you other chaps keep up the intelligent conversation.
I for one are a great fan of the company with an average buy in price of 25p plus all the lovely dividends paid over the years/
I buy the growth story but will be asking, what I hope, I pertinent questions at the AGM

Running away from being in the same room as shareholders never looks good.
Covid has ceased to be a legitimate excuse...

If that happens I await with interest your attempts (a) to liquidate your shares as a citizen of an "unfriendly country" and (b) to repatriate the money
You might get something back but I wouldn't bet on it...

The effect is the same. You lose your investment

By nationalised I mean taken out of the ownership of UK shareholders whether it is under the nominal holding of an Oligarch or that it is effectively nationalised is one of the same thing.
L'etat c'est moi! - quote from Vlad...

Sold last week at a small loss. Then news resulting in share price going up to around 2.75. Deep breath apply lots of Zen and then today - price well below what I sold it for. Breath out.
I think I did the right thing despite missing out on the bump. There's stuff going on in Russia we have no hope of fathoming out so no amount of analysis using the data we have is going to chart a way forward.
It's really blind faith that somehow the Russian oligarchs will allow UK holders a few crumbs left after the whole thing has effectively being nationalised.
My rational is that war eliminates all goodwill and if the Russians don't immiserate UK shareholders their own western Govts will seeking to fund Ukraine's reconstruction on the cheap...
Good luck those with ISOs (Iron Spherical Objects)

Full disclosure - I sold the other day at a small loss more than made up by selling Poly too
I'm not going back in yet why. 2 reasons:
- Gazprom bank have POG by the balls. They just have to revoke the waiver and its curtains. Gazprom is the state for Putin et al can use POG directly as a political plaything whenever they want
- don't forget the Nov repayment in hard currency. Western creditors will not play nice.

GLA!

Bargain. Yet again. Currently the debate is all about whether blindly buying the dip is still the thing to do. The small matter of buying individual stocks on fundamentals has been completely ignored and the world becomes more and more Pavlovian.
The management team are doing a great job. The RNS was stellar and I'm afraid patience is only antidote institutionalised stupidity.

Bonders censureship
C*cktail, C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,C*cktail,