Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

There's no hiding it the results are disappointing. Why?
- the current operations are on the current gold price losing money
- negative cash flow reinforced by what appears lax cash management practices. Why for example have receivables been constantly increasing? In the last quarter alone they accounted for nearly 3m of cash
- the management seem to have done a runner. Clive was left to do the dirty work and again no mention of the license.
Telling!

I'm still struggling to understand where the 46% comes from. In the interview I thought Werner stated that they expected a 25% recovery.
Perhaps everyone is getting a bit polyanish about this...?

by running out of money and credit.

I'm not saying it will happen but it is a distinct possibility. Do the sums....

It's on public record that the study was due to be completed at the end of H1 and would cost 100k. As I mentioned below these things are pretty cooker cutterish. Also the company stressed that the main consideration when assessing harms relates to the water table and the likelihood of contaminated water flowing downstream into tribal areas. Furthermore since the tribal lands are upstream unless physics ain't what we think it is this is a non issue.
And yet and yet we have a big delay. Also not mention of cost overrun on the study. I wonder why? Presumably embarrassment since the costs of the study are likely to massively exceed the initial estimates.
I not casting aspersions overpriced work like this way is a wonderful way to grease palms. It works very well for oil companies in upstanding places like Nigeria.
Why not Brazil?

I doubt it. SRB are paying for the study and it was due to be completed end of Q2. Without wishing to be too cynical these studies are pretty cooky cutter in nature and if they are this late I would have sacked them and got someone else.
So who knows... perhaps only those palms to be greased...?

If Dugbe is worth so much why is Pasofino (pure play Dugbe) worth the princely sum of CAD30m?
Mr Stalker bailed for a reason.
Relying on Dugbe to dig us out of the hole is under the prevailing gold price - fantasy. Maybe different if gold was 2.5k

Dear or dear what a bunch of wide eyed rampers. I'm invested in this stock and regularly castigated in another board for allegedly being pro SRB and anti that particular stock by a particularly unpleasant ramper on that board.
All I asked was - what happened to the license? It's absolutely pivotal to getting this company to the next stage of its development, the management have gone into enormous lengths explaining progress and why the management belived in Clive's own words to me back last Dec "it's less than a bump in the road". It was originally promised for Q2 and then Q3 and now towards the end of Q3 and update. An ideal opportunity to at least reference (as they have done in previous quarterly reports) it you would have thought but no!
And you lot like the 3 stooges all wide sagely and and in true post even rationalisation mode say don't be stupid why would they mentioned it?
Well I wonder who is being truly stupid here...

Yes I plucked $100 profit per oz out of thin air. I have no idea how GDP are going to split the proceeds with the third party supplier.
Btw I've never understood why GDP can't extract the gold for themselves rather than relying on a 3rd party. Is it just down to volumes or is it some specialist process that GDP lacks and the 3rd party supplier doesn't?

This company is an excellent example of how by attacking a myriad of problems typically faced by all companies success starts at first slowly but then snowballs. Towit:
- buying up the substantial minority interests thus increasing the share of profits to us shareholders
- keeping all the ECOWAT govts sweet in Ghana
- cautiously using capital but not being afraid to expand where the marginal revenues demand it e.g. Brazil
- opening up new processing capabilities - PGMs
- keep buggering on with the gold rich stockpile. Looks like they can finally get that processed (OK yet more approvals still needed but...). OK they need to spend 650k more than planned of which 300k is already spent but hey cash still goes up to 3.6m
If they make say $100 oz pure profit on the processing thats, hey, $8.2m. They're currently only worth $15m.
Mr Market you are seriously bonkers. Or else I'm missing something big...?

I don't buy the message that trucking Coringa ore back to Palito is a viable solution except perhaps for the best ores and in the very short term.
What is going on with the application? Palms still to be greased...?

Dugbe with the current price of gold is marginal at best. No one will buy it otherwise why has Pasofino's price crashed and IS left.
Actions speak louder than words. Still at least HUM didn't sink the money into getting reserves statement out otherwise they would already be well and truly bust.
The only hope is that they manage to get Guinnea up and running without having run out of credit first and then use the know how gained from all the **** ups in Mali to run a proper operation. Thinking about it, it's a big ask...

If anyone thinks Dugbe has value then I think they need to think again. A 5% discount factor is a joke when US fed rates (yes those counted as risk free) are 2.5%. I wonder what the NPV would have looked at with a more realistic 10%?
Before you all jump up and criticise me for deramping, look at the Pasofino share price since publication.
Other than that I broadly agree with the more balanced views on the board. It's cheap because it's cheap for a reason. A cash crunch is coming from which it may not survive and Dugbe will NOT be the ace in the hole.

Thank you Bismarck. Silly me I was assuming that they would be telling me how much my existing holding would be diluted relative to what it would be after the transaction. Instead they add the new and old together and quote a figure based on the proportion of the new relative to the combined total. To me that is meaningless.
Am I being cynical when I say this makes the investment appear to be less of a betting the farm approach than is actually the case?

In addition to the smelter royalty the RNS states they paid a "total consideration of 5,123,044 Caledonia shares representing approximately 28.5 per cent of Caledonia's fully diluted equity."
Yet when I look at the accounts they state the no of fully diluted shares is 12.2m. 5.1 into 12.2 is nearer 40% not 28% so...

what am I missing?

some sensible comments on this board for a change. It's what they broadly hinted at at the AGM no better no worse. They need to keep tracking costs down in line with the deflating gold price otherwise its curtains.
I note USD60m was drawn down at the end of Q2 - not much left although the O/D still remains in play.
This stock is not for the feint hearted. If you can't afford to lose what you have left sell otherwise stick but don't invest anything more until either one of three things happen. A) Gold price goes up B) Costs are sustainably down C) Kourassa starts producing.
Of course they could go bust in the meantime...

@Dogger
In order to expropriate it the Russian first have to take it. Looking at the latest news regarding Southern Ukraine that is not looking very likely. At this price the company is a steal but as blink panic rules the roost the price could still go much lower.
I'm watching and waiting...

"I don’t think anyone’s getting “carried away”"

Really? A selection from today's posts...

"To add to the great news today....
"Looking better all the time here....
"Another winner for us!...
"Fab news/results...
"Serabi IS THE GLODEN GOOSE ....
"This is a game changer....
"Told you phenomenal was a contextual concept!...
The original point of these boards was for people to swap ideas and learn in the process. They've just become a sink for irrational utterances and artfully posted comments. In other words a sewer inhabited by fools and knaves.
You carry on "promoting" if you want to. I'll try and maintain my sense of perspective and act accordingly

The results are OK. Yes long intervals but the grades are barely economic 0.25% is no great shakes. AAZ have discovered similar lengths at 0.45% and are in the process of developing the ore-body for next year. Mr Market has pronounced...Meh!
Perhaps when the core is drilled then I might be more excited...

13p eh?
Methinks your tits are in for a long wait...

I know it is early days but the company promised that the reserves statement would be out by Q2 and they have kept to that. The results were mildly positive and slightly better than my expectation . So all in all a good start post AGM.
The bigger tests lie ahead.
Stay solvent and mine profitably!