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A darling of the market on a PE of 1000+ announces a poll to allow the founder to partly bail because he's bricking it that the share price is going to do an Icarus. The grateful shareholders give him permission (actually he'd already made the arrangements) and after a little consideration the share price recovers to where it was. Meanwhile his nemesis backs a wannabe competitor which IPOs. It skyrockets (Geddit?) not surprising since the MP manual tells you that although it has no production, no earnings, no nothing it's bound to be worth a fortune cos Jeff says so. In fact it's only asset is a former employee of the 1st plutocrat let's hope he has health insurance
Meanwhile a well managed, excellently positioned miner announces a 15-20% increase in reserves i.e. 15-20% of REAL NPV and the share price rises by.....1.5%.
SIMPLES - YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE!
Bonker thanks for your clear explanation and the link to the Torygraph. Interestingly the poll came out 80:20 ditch the cash. That to me says a lot about current investor sentiment. As far as spreading the money around couldn't agree more. For the record I have money in SPGP, AAZ, HUM,CEY, CORA,SRB,SHG,EDV,GDP and on the P6 side THS & SLP.
Let's hope it's not a case of fools seldom differ...
Whilst I share the general enthusiasm for gold I've read somewhere that London has obtained an exemption from B3 rules. Surprise surprise all the liquidity has moved to London. Does anybody know how long the exemption will last? I can't remember where I read the article but I've found an analogous piece here
https://www.mining-journal.com/gold-and-silver-news/news/1413579/london-banks-get-exemption-from-gold-clearing-rules
Oh and try and work out which country you're in.
As far as I was aware HUM are not operating in either Alaska or Cameroon. Even if they were, the Alaska article mentions delays of up to 3 months. The last communication from HUM was 5 August. For the numerically challenged as geographically challenged that's more than 3 months.
BT are you Dan Betts? If so I'm beginning to be afraid, very afraid...
Stop excusing yourself, get off your butt and start delivering for the shareholders!!!
Besides being complete muppets as far a running an efficient mining business is concerned why are we talking about these outstanding drilling results. I'm sure if I trawl back through past RNSs and media interviews these were promised months ago.
Yeah yeah I know we are given yet another excuse of delays in testing from the labs but seriously has anybody else heard of miners in the Mali complaining? Not Cora certainly. Something smells and it's not fragrant!
For my sins I bought another slug today. The reasoning being that if these prices hold then even those muppets in the executive suite will find themselves in charge of a newly profitable business.
That is if they don't lose any more equipment to lack of spares etc. The ingenuity of their excuses always surprises on the upside! Shame nothing else does!
That's a brave call considering you don't know me. Happy to take a bet though...
I intend to subject the management to a little bit of cross examination as regards the excavators. I want a blow by blow account of exactly what happened what went wrong, how and when. I need to make up my mind whether the management are so clueless that their undoubted success strategically is going to be undermined by the utter incompetence when it comes to their day job.
No question for this quarter who performed better although for long suffering shareholders it was more a question of the least worst being the winner. SHG burnt through cash of 4.6m but HUM went through 13.4m . Both are actively drilling and proving up reserves but the almost comical admission from HUM that they can't keep key excavators in operation appeared to be the problem. Whilst Eric appeared somewhat tetchy in doing the Q3 media rounds at least he appeared!
Much news flow before the Q4s and of course Crimble crimped and curtailed as it may be maybe HUM might start catching up!
Dan needs to break cover and put some flesh on the bones of the Q3 RNS. Face the cameras! He can blather all he wants about the new mine but HUM has to be competent on its existing mine if I am to have faith they can profitably exploit the new one!
Thought I'd just read through a seeking alpha commentary on CEY. The basics were OK but the commentator banged on about CEY being a single mine owner and only in a Tier 2 country. At the end he disclosed his holdings which of course were in a Tier 1 country. I've looked up one of these Karora resources. It's worth around £300m but on an annualised basis only makes around £10 million profit on an output of 115k ish. It's all about increasing the amounts that come out of the ground apparently rather than what ends up in the accounts
You might be able to swap in and out of stocks free of commission but you are not free of bid/offer. Unless you know what your doing and then have a big slice of lady luck the House always wins on these transactional type activities.
You are right, the only way reliably to make a profit is to do your research, stay patient stay invested but always ready to bail if your understanding of the company and its activities turns out to be wrong on the downside.
Many years ago when I was a young and keen management consultant I went head to head with an active fund manager debating the virtues of active versus passive. I argued for passive on the basis that Mr Market was an efficient sort of chap and thus nobody could consistently beat him up.
Well how wrong and right I was. Yes passive funds have conquered the world but if markets approached efficiency then, they certainly don't look efficient now, particularly in dusty little corners like junior miners. I've ground my teeth as such holdings as AAZ, THS, CEY and HUM have slowly sunk down even while the prices of their output have largely stayed stable thus guaranteeing good profits if they are well run companies. I had a small holding in CORA which I regarded as too far from pouring gold to increase it and have watched as the stellar results caused the share price to lift off. I failed to sell at 20 because I missed the RNS so have waited until the attention deficient mob have sold out because the stellar news flow cannot be indefinitely maintained.
I thought I have spent my last dime on THS at 100 but have now found some more cash (TSG cash offer) and have doubled my CORA holding - two lots at 12.98. Let's see if this is the bottom...
OK thanks for the swift response and putting me straight! I think I understand the setup better now...
Yes thanks for posting the link. Interesting although not a lot added to what was in the various RNSs. Would have liked a question of the plant processing material from 3rd parties which I believe from the last RNS is on the cards.
No takeover please. I can see why a major would bid - pretty much all PGM plus goldies are hated. Just why shareholders should sell at the bottom of the investing cycle is a different matter.
Tough it out fellow shareholders. Absorb the hate and the love will come later. Then sell out!!!
I recall attending an online event covering Tharissa or maybe SLP - can't exactly recall. From memory I think the CEO was presenting the half yearly accounts - so only a few months ago. As part of the presentation there was a jokey but half serious options for participants to vote on the likely future price movements of Rhodium. The spot price at the time was 25k and the other options were roughly 30k, 40k and 50k. I find it fascinating to analyse my state of mind at the time but what did strike me was the absence of an option lower than the current spot price. Ever being the contrarian I opted for the lowest i.e. 25k. What a terrible prediction that was - saved only by the majority plumping for either the 40 or 50k mark. I think the CEO went for 50k.
Now the prevailing opinion is it's going all the way back to 2k. Hmmm....
I get the taken over at a low price scenario but "slowly die" - how? Ceteris paribus HUM is making money, alright devalued fiat money, but money all the same. It's in the balance sheet buddy! I can understand many assets being sold off cheap in a fire sale but (a) no fire sale is required - HUM is more than fully solvent and (b) you don't sell off cash in the balance sheet at less than par.
Or am I going mad? Someone is!
As you said a good interview. Stroking one's ego when one hears an industry commentator elucidate almost word for word what I think is always nice. Whether it's good for one's balanced view of the investment scene is another matter.
However, I have not heard a decent defence of why the current policy - be it fiscal or monetary - is sustainable.
Now that would make me re-evaluate - but I'm still waiting.
The market currently is sustained by a bunch of nutters chasing endlessly upward curving charts nervously followed by professionals who fear being scalped by their client investors for not being sufficiently in tune with the times.
History shows this is all going to end badly but in today's woke world history is bunk!
Cheerio had a quick breath of air now back to the panic room for another 2 week stint...