Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

is that we retail folk not entitled to the CLN part. They are the key to getting one's money back should it all go t*ts up. The amount of money raised via CLNs is many times more than that raised by shares.
So let's suppose, for the sake of argument, the worse case scenario namely that no processing license is forthcoming and buyers hold back from buying out the company scenting they can get it much cheaper when in danger of running out of money CORA hands back the exploration license and hi tails it out of Mali with what money is left in the bank.
As CLNs will rank before share holders, they will get some pence back in the pound. In this scenario, the sooner the company exits Mali on the realisation all is lost, the higher the return. Lionhead don't lose any money because you can bet your bottom dollar than any disbursements will be made only when the company has already spent some or all of the money raised via shares/CLNs on building the mine and they would be mad to do that without a mining license.
That leaves ordinary shareholders losing the lot. No wonder the BOD are committing virtually none of their money into ordinary shares.
Anybody wish to argue otherwise?

I do agree partly with the pessimists that the company is the agent of its own misfortune. The management were too ambitious and actually rather good on the corporate wheeler dealer side but could then become horribly overstretched on the implementation of it all. Make no mistake though other junior gold miners who have been less ambitious have seen their share price suffer too.
Actually I thought the Vox interview was pretty sober and didn't really attempt ramp up the opportunity too much. I agree with them that if they can get things right operationally both in getting to pour the gold and then producing it consistently profitably then yes this can be a multibagger. The problem is their track record is not good. Question have they learnt from their errors? Will Know-how that driver of all commercial success kick in? I don't know in all honesty.
That's why I'll be at the AGM and want to here more, a lot more.
As for casting my vote - yes I will vote in favour. In my opinion is dilute or bust. We and the Board have run out of options. To vote against will almost certainly doom the company and what remains of our holdings...

Ctw - correct!

If you look at the Q$ outlook - finance section HUM states:
"Of the budgeted c.US$115 million capex for the construction of Kouroussa, c.US$65 million has been paid as at the end of Q4 2022, with the balance to be paid over the coming quarters from Yanfolila cash flows (which have improved) and existing debt facilities, including c.US$20 million contractor deferrals, retention incentives and working capital not expected to be paid until Kouroussa is into full production"
Personally I think Yani is going to be about cash neutral after paying out the extra interest. That leave a $50m gap. So where is it going to come from. The RNS helpfully tells us that 15m of the bank facilities remain plus they reckon they can flex their working capital by $20m. So that leaves $15m.
I wonder where that is going to come from....?

Thanks all for filling me in on the licensing situation in Mali. For the record I own shares in Cora and would not be averse to helping fund the next phase of the operation. However, you guys below put your finger on what is for me the potential show stopper. Yes the reserves are eminently exploitable and the team more than qualified enough to do the job at a profit particularly if the gold price holds up. But, but, but the license. I know enough about the Russians and how they operate behind the scenes to spot danger. They don't want to be seen to overtly threaten property rights since they have interests of their own to protect, but what they do is attack on inflection points. One such is moving from exploration to exploitation and thus needing to go back to the govt for a new license. This is where they can work behind the scenes to deny western company's what would normally be legitimately theirs. I note that contained within the CLN's optionality is to reclaim the money back in the event the company is sold. I think it's clearly going through their minds that they might have to sell to the Russians or Chinese who now have the ear of the Malian government.
Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic but I see three possible options for me requiring action at some point.
1) Buy share outright. I note the main backers are putting a reasonable amount of money via this route. Clearly the price is the lower than via the CLN but there is no optionality that the latter provide.
2) subscribe for the CLNs. There is some optionality embedded here but not much. I would very much like to have included -options for reimbursement if licenses were not forthcoming
3) Buy in the secondary market at a time of my choosing. I would probably have to pay more but given the scale of upsides and downsides for me even a 50% premium on the current ~4p price would not put me off - under the right circumstances.
In conclusion I need to know more. Maybe an online interview with BM or more likely turning up in person to the AGM and doing a bit of eyeballing..
Any other takers?

Presumably the license referred to below is the mining license since they'll already have an exploration license. Why are Mali not issuing mining licenses? What chance of the money being raised and yet due to political skulduggery (Wagner/Russia?) they still can't get a mining license and thus have to relinquish all their rights acquired to date?

I'm getting a bit cheesed off with this since being told at the AGM by the Chairman that it was all down to administrative inefficiency on the part of the auditors.
I've emailed Werner and asked him to get the nominated advisor to independently contact the auditors to check that no serious issues have been identified as part of the audit process and that, yes, the delay is just down to a slow process.
Nominated advisors occasionally do have to earn their crust and if I don't get a response from the company I will approach them direct. They after all have a reputation to protect and will not want to be seen ignoring a direct request from a dissatisfied shareholder. Being asleep at the wheel is no protection if later it all goes t*ts up!

The problem with GGP is that although it is worth >300m the debt is rising fast. The cash needs to come rolling in and soon. It's no good having fancy interactive charts showing in exquisite detail the jam for tomorrow when the share price today keeps falling.
I've looked at the company presentation and nowhere could I see when they will actually start production.
Somebody below said soon - but how soon?

Tornadotony I like your posts, you have a lot of interesting things to say. However, here I disagree with you. Mining is inherently and uncertain business compared with other demand focused businesses. Future demand particularly that in developed countries can be predicted with reasonable degree of accuracy, black swan events like pandemics excepted. Mining companies have to deal with uncertain supply and demand! Also they need to go to places where, let's say, standards of governance are not that of democratic countries. Add in a war and you have a difficult business to be in for all concerned.
Yet despite this AAZ have consistently paid out a high dividend, presided over a generally rising share price and continued to built their resources and reserves. I have invested in a number of junior miners and AAZ along with THS are, I consider, the best.
They're not perfect, for example, I'm not sure what the ultimate aim of the Columbian investment is and they certainly dodged a bullet with the proposed Irish involvement. A change in regime in Azerbaijan could be a problem but that is currently not on the cards.

As yes Revolution Beauty! I came across it by chance earlier this week and what a farrago! I hope you don't have shares in the them. From my brief scan it does look as thought there is some bad skulduggery afoot which, even with hindsight, could have been spotted by BDO. Still they do need to service their other clients. So GET ON WITH IT!!!

Sorry I meant major fall in the gold price...!

In response to your questions - 1. I think the major owners have reached the end. They failed to get funding to complete the job and now they want out. The elevated price of gold will just increase their urgency. A trade sale as opposed to a company sale is quicker and cleaner for the buying but as DDD rightly analyses it'll get messy for us owners with perhaps some shenanigans being played out too
2. The they say in the market. An inch ahead and all is darkness. My guess is previous to the gold price rise they'd have accepted $100m but maybe now $125 is the base. If as DDD speculates a couple of extra bidders emerge then we could get a bidding war but I wouldn't count on it.
If the company is sold for less than $100m without a major fall in the share price I'd be surprised....

A rising tide helps save the blushes of all those with their pants down. Dan?
The Q1 results will be in soon (hopefully) so it will be interesting to see what AISC was really achieved....hmm
Also what Cora Bank are charging for the extra slug advanced in December

The company has a lot of unexplored sights that registered on the geo magnetic survey and only one Matilda was drilled. Given the are going to have to arrange a farm in with a bigger miner the share price will also be sensitive to the price of copper if any decent finds are made. Makes for a bit of diversification.
Also did anybody catch Mikes response to the question about potential mergers? The question put to him was about SRB acquiring but in his response he also made the point about being potentially acquired. Interesting...

Yes I attended. No 1 question was was is the audit late? The response was that the auditors are solely responsible for the delay. Both the (independent) company secretary and chairman were in complete agreement. Apparently the twin culprits are wfh and the fright auditors have taken re: recent fines resulting in more box ticking procedures taking more time. I then asked both of them whether the greater time taken has meant a better audit. Both said no which was interesting.
I pushed them pretty hard on this and both maintained GDP had provided all the information requested and it was now just a matter for the auditors to complete their analysis and draw up the formal accounts.
Eyeballing them convinced me this was the case so we'll just have to see

What's the view out there about the announcement of a new non Exec? To me the fact that he is a banker rather than a miner speaks volumes....

The EGM is tomorrow (21st - high noon at solstice!!!) not next week....?

5p fraid not, at least not at the current time of writing.
Adding Zifar and Gilar gives in rounded figures 50k tonnes Cu, 210 oz Au and 60k tonnes Zn. Multiplying by current market prices gives nearly a $1b stache of resources. Not bad for 6 months work and get Mr Market goes meh!
Given the efficiency with which this company has, hitherto, mined gold I have no doubt they will turn a profit on these deposits too.
It's not worth banging you head against a brick wall with frustration. Juist enjoy the divi and wait for the worm to turn. As it will.
That's my advice!

Thanks also to DDD for his/her heroic attempts at valuation. As stated in the calculation is can only be used as a guide.
In reality the price will come done to who is desperate and who is disinterested. Right now it will be CNR who has the urgency to get this done with buyers have the luxury of choosing to any number of cheap junior miners.
Raising the money will help give us much needed optionality and thus make us less desperate, time can be our friend not our enemy. It will however, spin out the sales process and both sides will need to go through the posturing phase.
Patience will be at a premium
GLA!

"My resource valuation using established industry averages for different classes ($20, $30, $130) adds up to $160m "

I'm assuming the figures relate to indicated, probable and proven reserves respectively?

Could you give me a source for these rule of thumb number please so I can check for myself?