Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

Thanks I'll resist being the guru for this bb. Before I go any further should you be in any doubt, investing is not easy otherwise we'd all be as rich as Vlad. Also just because I'll quote you a couple of examples that doesn't mean they imply screaming buys. They don't for reasons I'll briefly summarise. So a couple of examples
HUM - currently in Mali and soon to be Guinea. In both places they are regularly reported results of over 100 standard measurements. By that I mean the product of a drill hole with 2 elements; gold concentration and length of sample in metres. So a 10m length of core with 15 g/t = 150 standard units. Anyway they have reported loads of these. Does it mean their share price is flying? Err no. Mainly for reasons to do with the fact that they are not very good at mining.
AAZ. Now these guys do know how to mine. Last August they announced a new discovery near their existing processing plant worth around $820m at current prices. Yesterday they firmed up on that estimate reducing the value to around $450m. The reason? They got lucky (unlucky?) with the initial holes that gave their models a false signal. Still the reserves are substantial for a company worth just over $100 and what is there will be cheaper to mine. Other problem - they are next to Russia in Azerbaijan. They fact that they are allied closely to Turkey means there is zero risk of contagian Mr Market doesn't want to know. Their price has also dropped sharply
So what am I saying? The world is a complicated place and don't place excessive reliance on any one indicator. Furthermore, your fellow investors be they ii or pi frustratingly never seem to see the world the same way you see it.
You thus have two choices. Sell because you agree their view is correct and you are wrong or stick because you believe you are right and it's only a matter of time before they come round to your point of view.
Your call....

Tornadotony. I agree with you on the sector wide issue. It's quite a phenomenon! I've got shares in various miners and processors which are well managed, good reserves on x2 PE and above. Right now gold is historically high and probably won't fall much even with rates rising due to a certain Mr Putin. At the other end of the equation you have silly (sorry meme Stocks) that seem to have no basis of reasonable valuation but are still strong. Mr Market is definitely on a bender here.
Whilst I'd like your prediction to come true (I'm 30% cash 10% market short) I think your canary in the mine argument is wishful thinking. Copper, nickel, lithium etc are looking like they'll stay strong so falling prices in these items are not going to happen. It seems meme stocks and Tesla type growth stocks are impervious to any real world event.
If recession happens it'll be because the Fed miscalculates and raises interest rates too high

"I have never seen grades this good in a set of drilling results". Really ever?
Well you haven't looked very hard.
Having said that, in the context of THIS company they are good infill results and will all add incrementally to its value. Although try telling that to Mr Market. Shares marked down not up!

The same way that no one will buy gold from mines employing child miners....?

Hmmm not sure about that

Sorry to be a smart arse but it merely confirmed what I posted below and I wasn't holding myself out as being a genius either!
People really need to get a bit more geopolitically informed.
Sorry where's Azerbaijan again...?

Yes thanks for the research Swatton. However, if I can add a postnote to your estimates. I rather think you need to make a few more adjustments when looking at HUM versus THS. Firstly HUM is in the bondoolies whereas THS is inthe Bushveld. As Ian Stalker has constantly alluded to it gets more expensive to operate the more remote you go. Secondly, THS are a class outfit and HUM are not. THS have a culture of continuous process improvement. For example, there are currently trailing new efficient Liebherr excavators and mining trucks. HUM can't keep what they have in full operation. And finally, HUM had a problem with costs even last year because they where having to go much further down the open pits they were operating.
So all in all I'd double that estimate for full. Still even with that it still looks okish given the high price of gold.
However, if gold falls and oil stay elevated it's a different matter

I would be good to get HUM et al to divulge what proportion oil related costs make up as a percentage of variable production costs. That way we may be flying a little bit less blind than we are at the moment...
Anybody know if any of the executives are due to appear on any media so somebody can put the question to them?

I'm being a bit thick here but why 4 weeks and what exactly is my worst?

It's times like these where it pays to have gained investors trust. Clearly HUM has struggled to do this given its comedic attempts in the last 12-18 months to mine gold successfully. So when Armageddon looks plausible people sell the thing they hate the most even it it is not the most logical thing to do. CEY went up today. Why? Because the current management team (as opposed the previous band of Ali Baba thieves) appear to be competent.
Still BT can console him/her self with the thought that SRB are down by a similar amount.
Btw it's worth remembering that to some extent the POG is only compensating for increased production costs so a bonanza is not imminent unless POG puts on another 10%. Consider this - costs of production as per 2020 HUM accounts were over 50% of turnover. So if gold has gone up by 10% in the last few months a crucial element of costs fuel has probably gone up by 30% (that's conservative). Let's say that fuel is 50% of those costs of production (the accounts don't break it down) that means 75% of the increased gold price has been negated by rising fuel costs. Pretty meagre returns unless you can offset the fuel burden through substitution e.g. solar power or connecting to the grid.

I think a lot of investors looked up Azerbaijan, discovered it was a former Soviet state and sold. Today it is firmly in the Turkish orbit and yes the Russians are next door with Armenia but right now the last thing the Russians want is to open up a 2nd theatre of war.
What I would like to know though are how the 2 very large copper deposits are getting on being developed.

Well well well gold at 1950. Even our very own Keystone Klondikes make make a profit at these prices.
Artificially lowering production by losing half their excavator fleet and now ramping it up again after restocking turned out to be a genius move.
Who'd have thought it?

It depends on whether the deal is consummated before the period end. If yes then they accounts should be presented with the capital reorganisation and the Changes in Equity table itemising the flows in and out. If not then it will be a post balance sheet event note and that will be it until the full year

I'm making the heroic assumption that the user Tharisa is the company so here goes.
I have a holding in another SA stock that have recently bought out their black empowerment holding. The reason they were able to do this so I was told at the AGM was that because they no longer have a mining license (they do have a mineral processing license) they are no longer subject to (I believe) a rolling 4/5 year requirement to have black representation in the company and on the Board. Clearly Tharisa have a mining license and hope to hold on to it so how do they intend to stay within the rules whilst buying out the empowerment holding?

Good to see a lot of fellow bottom feeders posting today although I don't agree with a lot of them. Driving summed it up nicely. Ridiculous pe and this company when consolidated has nearly a third of its mcap in cash. Never mind the value of inventories and debtors plus interest in the sold gold operation in Kenya plus the discounted value of future earnings. The npv plus realisable value in the BS must more like 50-100m.
By utter contrast I'm processing the accounts of PXS (LSE). It's being going since 1996 to commercialise an extract of tomatoes and after over 25 years has reached the massive turnover of £500k. Losses after tax are 360k and the balance sheet is negligible at NAV £1.1. Anyone guess the market value....? Everybody is in love with IP even when to anybody with half a brain that IP is worthless...
IMO the CEO is doing a superb job. It's not easy turning round a company going in completely the wrong direction having to negotiate the sale half completed mine whilst directing operations in two separate geographic sites. Progress on piping the 83k ozs of gold , new facility in Brazil to take out the uneconomic stuff. Yes all small steps but collectively they are going to make us money - barring any unforeseen events and a collapse the the gold price of course.
Well done WK - ignore the whiners and keep sweating the small stuff. The rewards will come sooner of later.

I have just asked a question on Pasofino forum, I'm interested to see why people buy Pasofino when you can buy HUM.

Simples....

HUM CEO = DB
VEIN CEO = IS

But the question you have to ask yourself is how much of that $60m has gone to Koroussa and how much as gone to Yani. If it's mostly gone to the latter then we're in trouble...

"I like the fact Anthony will be on site for most of 2022 to oversee improvements at Yan, and oversee K , being a mere one day travel away - good synergies."
That was in response to my question so I'll take a bow and expect much applause especially from my principal fan - BT

"Don't ask us ask HUM" - I did and that was the whole point of my post because despite my best efforts I didn't get any form of answer except basically "trust us".
Well I don't. Not because they are lying but because there are not competent despite well sitting on top of not 1 but 3 gold mines.
Let's leave this since I'm not going to get any satisfaction.
Time will tell...

Saying you've adequate liquidity because the spreadsheet says so and actually demonstrating the fact are two different things.
Have they flexed their forecasts? what contingency measures are in place? What room to they have to apply for additional liquidity via the banks? Are there any covenants in the existing Coris loan which they might be in danger of breaching?
Etc Etc Etc
What you're saying is that we believe the management's word. Really? In spite of all that has happened operationally in the last 12/18 months.
I'm afraid I'm not so trusting. What did Ronald use to say. Trust but verify. I haven't had any verification and nor have you whether you like it or not

My questions on the above possibility both pre submitted and reiterated during the presentation were NOT addressed!