Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

Mr Market dozes gently away with this one. There really is so much fireworks going on around him he really must be a heavy sleeper. One thing not mentioned in the RNS was the start of PGM smelting. I can't recall when that is due to start but I seem to recall they are waiting for existing contracts with 3rd parties to expire. Am I correct that this is all that is stopping them capturing the $400 (roughly) gap between what they get and what the market price is?

Exhibit one: I've checked miners with similar prospects and operations in Mali e..g Cora & Endeavour. No RNS and share prices unaffected by the news
Exhibit 2. Good news rushed out and occupying 90% of RNS. Bad news tucked in at bottom ready for future usage
Exhibit 3. If you're going to bother putting out an RNS and everyone is worried about your basic inability to dig the stuff up in the first place AND we are usefully 10 days into the next quarter you would think there might be some passing reference current mining operations. BUT NO. Why?
Well I suspect Q4 has been an absolute shocker. All sorts of things have happened to the Mali mine which strangely only seem to effect HUM. More competent, or at least less incompetent, miners have strangely not had these problems.
No the sanctions will be a useful scapegoat with which to highlight continuing unacceptable performance and will also serve to distract our attention from the Q4 results where they are well and truly on the hook for the outcome which I predict will be an AISC of at least 1750 when you include the costs of drilling normally excluded from HUM's figures.
Btw - I agree with Cheerfuldoor - we should get our heads together and decide what questions we want to prioritise for the promised Q&A interactive session. Straight answers to straight questions would be nice...

I think a sense of proportion is due. In relation to the company's operations these are excellent results. However, they are no bonanza that will somehow double the share price. If Mr Market paid any attention to an junior miners quite a few would instantly double but they don't so we just have to suck it up.
What these results demonstrate yet again how well this company is run despite recent hiccups on accounts and licenses. They can make excellent money on the relatively narrow veins they exploit and are constantly probing out to ensure they have new prospects and can intelligently plan the mining operation to incorporate these.
At the same time they open new mines - Coringa and prospect new areas of the license. The one thing that would make this a multi bagger would be good oxidised ore close to the surface. That's still a possibility. If not then it's slow and steady with the share price eventually following it upwards.
I'm afraid patience is required for stocks like these...

Your welcome. Have a nice Christmas and here's to a more rational world in the new year (not least in the markets!)

and verified and cannot be released to the market. Currently they have the initial findings of the aerial survey now (which hasn't yet been published) and so are in a de facto closed period. He then pointed out that a few weeks back he'd bought share alongside Mike H at over 70p.
So that's broadly it. As I said this is MY UNDERSTANDING and DO NOT RELY on it when making any investment decision. You can always contact Clive. Happy to given anyone his address.
DO YOU OWN RESEARCH AND DO NOT RELY ON MINE!!!!
GLA

Happy to oblige although please understand this is my interpretation as to what I was told.
I wanted to cover 2 main areas. The accounting fraud and the recent issue with the mining license,.
As far as the accounting was concerned one individual was mainly responsible and had 2 accomplishes and bullied the rest of his staff into silence. The issue was picked up by the auditors who (given Wirecard, Valerie P etc) are concentrating much more on checking cash transactions. After extensive work the fraud has been fully identified and Clive (FD) confirmed that because these were bona fide entries there accounts do not need restating as they are accurate albeit with fraudulent entries within them. Remedial measures include a new 5 part invoice approval process and fixing the weak link between the Treasury team and the Accounts Payable team. Deloitte (I think) have been appointed to run an internal audit for the next 6 months.
As far as the license issue is concerned this is very involved but in summary the company still holds the 2 valid licenses required to complete work scheduled to finish end Q2 2022. What the one judge did was against the grain of all of the previous decisions and also against common practice in that 3 judges are required for a decision. Because he has gone out on a limb all he has done is express his opinion since it has no legal force. the two other judges have not given any opinion as yet. In any event the main bone of contention is for the company to conduct and indigenous people's study. Previously the company actually sold the one piece of land they had that was land belonging to the indigenous tribes. However, to pre-empt things they have commissioned a study anyway (cost 100k) which should be completed by Q2 2022 and they hope to provide the Judges with progress and preliminary conclusions well beforehand to avoid any last minute problems. When I said the share price has sunk as if there was an "earthquake Richter scale 8" I asked him what he thought the problem was on that scale. He replied more like "a speed bump on the road" than anything worse. I then asked the impossible question as to whether with the study this would be the end of the matter given SRB had done what the opposing Ministry Poblico has asked of them and he of course said nothing would be guaranteed. He then said he thought the one underlying issue that bothered them was that of water quality from the tailings dam. However, he then pointed out at all the tribal lands were above the mine workings and that as far as he knew water doesn't flow upward. Finally, I asked him to confirm that he thought the market had over-reacted which is strongly implied in the RNS. After him confirming this I then asked whether directors were still in a closed period. In other words why aren't they buying shares. He replied this is a difficult issue for mining company directors as there typically is information that they know about but hasn't been fully process

I was the sole attendee and had the opportunity for an excellent Q&A lasting 45 mins.
Just bought some more shares today at an excellent price of just of 56p.
I can wait until Mr Market catches up...

For months we are subjected to mushroom treatment i.e. kept in the dark and periodically have the brown stuff dumped on our heads. Then two RNSs in as many days!
Do I spot a coincidence here? You bet I do! Funny what a bunch of Retail Investors can do if they set their minds to it...

It's enough to make you weep. They are sitting on oodles of the stuff as the latest drill results (weren't they not due to be released Q2 20022?) indicate. But we all know that's useless if the management are incapable of digging the stuff out at a profit. The same goes for the new Karoussa mine.

Until something changes don't expect miracles on the share price front...

Right now I'd accept a friendly takeover offer of 20P+. The alternative is for the current management team to slowly destroy what they've built up!

Note - intro only - the letter is to large for the character limit on this site...

To the Chairman

Hummingbird Resources



9 December, 2021



I am writing to you on behalf of a group of concerned long term shareholders, unhappy with the consistency and detail of information given out by the company in the last eighteen months. After the promised improvement in communications following our previous raised concerns, we perceive that this has not materialised despite some important setbacks to the company’s operations recently. We believe a great deal more detail could and should have been provided.

The text below illustrates some of our main concerns and is structured around certain RNSs together with quotes from the company and a series of questions that, if fully answered, would provide a much better picture of the company’s financial and operational position, and thus aid in valuing the long term prospects of the company.

Whilst we understand that due to recent events the company is operating in a period of uncertainty, nevertheless we believe our questions below can and should be answered as soon as possible. Indeed, they should be incorporated into the next RNS promised by the company in its RNS dated 1/12/21.

More and better information means better informed investors and thus a more meaningful and productive relationship with the Board in particular and the company in general.

For those of you not content to live off the scraps of information provided by the company, we are launching a shareholder initiative similar to the one launched earlier this year with the aim of improving information flow. If you are interested in supporting this please contact Para - investorhum@gmail.com
Test of the email to follow....

Life's a funny thing - but the Colonel is both knowledgeable and has more than a point and deserves to be heard. Yes he's crowing and has acknowledged the fact. C'mon folks you're not a bunch of pimply snowflakes who can't bear to hear dissenting voices are you?
I've got a little bit of skin in the game having being a dissenter in previous debates with the Colonel but I have to admit his timing is much better than mine. And I rather suspect the share price is going nowhere for the next 2/3 quarters and the market collectively holds it's breath as to whether Singida can now be funded from internal resources.
I do take issue as to the ageing aspect of the mine. How do you know Colonel, what objective facts to you have that enable you to say that? All I know is that the mine life is currently 2026. Clearly not the 20+ years of CMCL but at least 4 years plus new discoveries. What I do know is that underground mines tend to have much lower visibility going forward as to LOF than open pit equivalents.
In short you godda have faith!!!

To my knowledge none of the other UK quoted companies such as Cora or Endeavour Mining that are active in the same area as HUM have highlighted security as an issue. Cora are appearing in an LSE even in December and I intend to ask whether they have experienced any problems. If the answer is no then I want to get together with other interested share holders to force an emergency vote of no confidence in the company and demanding that they conduct a strategic review of the company i.e. attract buyers. Furthermore, directors and associated shareholders e.g. Dan's dad should not be permitted to vote as they are conflicted. Yes we would sell ourselves cheap but quite frankly under this management the share price just gets cheaper.
Any support?

Just picked up another slug at 11.33. It will be a wait until cash comes through but when the POG goes up and the share price goes down imo that is a buy signal...

Ah should have known BT would put his oar in. I say his confidently because his real initials are DB. As for the rest of you, assuming you are not members of the Board too, I suggest politely don't be the company's useful idiots. Rather than give them the benefit of the doubt press for improvements in operations and efficiency. That way assuming you are genuine shareholders you might make a profit.
You may have the votes on the Board, but I have Mr Market making my case for me. What's the share price done today?
*ugger all!!!
As for the 5th bullet point - so what? As I get sick of saying don't take management promises at face value. As per a debate with Dan (sorry BT) I pointed readers to an RNS almost 4 months ago that promised "Hummingbird will provide further progress updates on KEUG in its quarterly releases". Cunning very cunning - they didn't say which quarter. The reader would be entitled to assume maybe a 2-3 wait. Not a 10 month wait as implied by today's RNS
Ridiculous - have they lost the assays or did the dog dodo on them?

To paraphrase - output is vanity profit is sanity.
This law has apparently been waived to the likes of Tesla and Rivian (actually Rivian has no turnover at all!!!) but the iron law still holds for lowly miners. The price will not move until they can show a realistic prospect of operating profitably within current gold prices. Keep hoping otherwise all you guys - that's the definition of a value trap.
And you were right to mention the big drilling campaign. Why haven't we got the results yet and why did the RNS not even mention when they might be coming out?

Nobody questions this company's ability to find the stuff or deal their way into owning it. The question is can they reliably dig the stuff up profitably. Once and only once they show they can do this will the share price respond.
And I can make a profit on my holdings!!!

Hmm I'd pay less attention to what the management says and more to the actual figures each quarter.
These are rough figures but AISC for quarters 1-3 where roughly 1450,1350 & 1500. The last figures mainly due apparently to 2 excavators being out of action due to no spare parts.
Make no mistake what should be a relatively low cost open pit is anything but at the moment.
Incompetence trumps management aspirations

Astrology is mumbo jumbo and so is charting. It only works if everybody buys into theology and forgets to look at real data e.g. profits, cost reductions new sources of income etc. Fundamentals will always win out in the end, even if the waiting is excruciating!

Stark raving mad eh? Well you may well be right but not in this context. This is an example only:
Two companies one with AISC 1000 and one with AISC 1500
Yesterday the gold price was 1600 and today it is 1700. Crucially you believe that this increase will be sustained. Given the changed circumstances which company do you invest in. Company A whose profits go up from 600 to 700 - a 16% increase in NPV or company B whose profits go up from 100 to 200 - a 100% increase in NPV
Simples - it's the maths!