Member Info for PaddyGall

Hi @Goldenl - if you tot up the weeks it's actually 13 weeks and if NCM were to stick to their strict halfway point then I would expect them on Tuesday the 15th. However with the GGP AGM being on the 8th there is the possibility that they will bring the interims forward to prior to the 8th. They did this last year and released them the day before the GGP AGM.
GGP & NCM seem to have an amicable relationship so I can't see any reason why they wouldn't do that again this year.

If that is the case then we are less than 3 weeks from the interims and Newcrest have history for reporting MRE's within the exploration results - tick tock......

GLA - Paddy

Guys - remember that GH & CB are by far the largest shareholders in OUR company. They are totally aligned with the shareholders and any dilution would affect them significantly more than most of us here.
I for one have faith in them - I know words are cheap but their actions of the past 3 years that I've been invested here gives me no reason for concern.

ATB - Paddy

Short presentation for the TSX to be delivered by Sandeep this evening at 7.00pm

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-11/201118_TSX%20Australia%20Investor%20Mining%20Day%20-%20Presentation.pdf

GLA - Paddy

Well Mickey's at number 2 and DJRyan is number 1 - he hasn't posted on GGP for 12 months I reckon. I'm happy with my number 4 position - just ahead of Spy and tom_the_bomb.

Must try harder Spy.....

Cheers trucky - Lets see what delayed trades come thorough a little later then.

ATB - Paddy

Strange 92K trade showing on ADVFN at 16:35 for 23.5p????

Personally I can't see any broker updates now until after the MRE - it's literally 4-5 weeks away and I can't see them issue anything now to then have to scramble and re-issue a target afterwards.

I would have loved one right after the last Newcrest quarterly but I think when we didn't see it immediately then the writing was on the wall. Hopefully there will be more info on the Northern & Eastern breccias in the NCM interims and combined with the MRE it might allow them to produce a reasonably accurate target this time.

ATB - Paddy

Jim - would the bulk sampling of the ore be required to enable Newcrest to determine the best blend (as you say) to allow them to complete their PFS? Sandeep has guided the end of 2021 for production of the PFS so I would assume from this timeline that the decline would be completed to the ore-body by Q3 next year.
Why "Pressure Oxidation" for deeper sulphide - is that because it tends to have more nasties in the ore as you go deeper?

Thanks - Paddy

Hi Jim,
So you would have been at Telfer during the time that Newcrest first started exploring at Havieron and the other Anketell targets. I bet they wish they could have that time back now - great for us GGP holders that there was plenty of "low-hanging" fruits available at Telfer at that time.

Do you still keep in touch with any of the Newcrest people out there - it would be great to get a view on how they perceive the situation.

GLA - Paddy

@TimberTrader - I think that 2.00PM EST refers to Eastern Standard Time (North America) as it's a presentation to the TSX and would therefore be 7.00PM GMT for us.

ATB Paddy

@chester - I think the Callum thing at Diggers & Dealers was forced on them by the Covid situation - he's based in WA and was allowed to appear there without restrictions. If GH wanted to do the gig he would have had to get permission to go to WA and would then have had to self-isolate for 14 days prior to the event.

I'm sure he was gutted to have missed the opportunity to present at the premier event in the Aus mining calendar.

Agree with your other thoughts though and with only 6 weeks to the end of the year that pressure is building with every passing day - GLA Paddy

There's been a lot of talk about a deal being done at the moment with Newcrest on the strength of the drilling results at Scallywag. I'm not sure of the legal situation here (there will be other's better versed in the position that GGP is in at present) but my understanding is that GH would not be able to conclude a deal with Newcrest until after the drill results are made public, these results would be material to our SP and if they are such that they would get Newcrest interested then they need to be in the public domain in order to gauge the interest of other parties also.

I'm sure that they could keep Newcrest informed of progress but I don't think they could make them aware of the results before they were released to the market. I'm might be totally wrong and would be happy to be corrected if that is the case.

ATB - Paddy

Morning all,

Another Monday morning and another week closer to MRE and Scallywag initial results. Unfortunately it's a cloudy day in the Paterson today so nothing of note to report.

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72462&lng=122.64077&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2020-11-16T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-11-16T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c

I think the last few satellite images have shown that NCM are still busy with the infill and depth drilling at Havieron with limited movement/step-outs and GGP seem to have completed their initial drilling campaign at Scallywag.

What we originally though might have been the GGP road train on route to Paterson Range East actually turned out to be Antipa starting their JV campaign with Newcrest at their Grilla target. That is a magnetic structure which is literally only a couple of kms from both out Henyretta and Prefect targets. At last glance they appeared to have been active at 7/8 positions there at around 150m spacings.

I have scoured the rest of the PRE, Scallywag & Black Hills areas without any success - this leads me to believe that GGP have wrapped up for this season as there are probably only 4/5 weeks left - so WHY then would they not carry on and complete their original plan of going North to test Goliath, Los Diablos, etc??

I have read tom_the_bomb's theory that this must be bullish and I think on the balance of probabilities that I agree with him. Of course the proof will be in the RNS that is released with the assay results but with GH's recent statements that they would be looking to add shareholder value looking away from Havieron and the deviation from the plan may prove telling.

Also the break until the New Year will give GH a chance to see what Antipa turn up at their Grilla prospect which may help us further in our drill targeting for the PRE. Time to concentrate on other things and let the GGP crew do their stuff - keep sitting on those hands.

ATB - Paddy

Personally I would love for GGP to hang onto their 25% of Havieron and I have been saying that all along. If we do end up selling it then another avenue that would be open to us would be one of the royalty streaming firms. They would love to get their hands on a Tier 1 producing asset and would be more than prepared to go into a partnership with NCM.

If NCM want the whole 100% of Havieron then it not going to be a case of us having to go cap in hand to them - there will be plenty of interest and it's not inconceivable that a bidding war may ensue.

After holding here for over 3 years now another while will be a piece of cake - ATB Paddy

It's actually PFS and stage 3 that will be complete at the end of 2021 and then stage 4 will begin. NCM are liable for all spending within stage 3 and completing stage 3 is dependant on them providing that PFS. So all the spend on the decline, roads to Telfer, drilling for the next 12 months will all be part of NCM's responsibility.

Once stage 4 starts then we would be liable for 40% of any overspend of the $10M that they need to produce the feasibility study. I don't know what exactly is required to convert a PFS into an FS but with the major spending on decline & roads completed then shouldn't be an issue.

Also in theory we should have an income stream available to us from the ore that NCM are hauling to Telfer to carry out the bulk trials at that point - they should be in the high grade sulphide zone which would provide us with nice grades to trial.

Exciting times ahead - Paddy

Nice paragraph in this Newcrest write-up by Seeking Alpha. Still can't get the facts right though - Newcrest can earn up to 70% - not the 60% stated in the article after feasibility study is complete.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4388180-newcrest-mining-weak-start-to-fy2021

"The good news for Telfer, which has seen production drop off materially since FY2019, is that the new Havieron discovery by Greatland Gold, where Newcrest has 40% ownership, could transform the asset. The exploration project lies 45 kilometers east of Telfer, and Havieron is a significantly higher grade deposit with incredible results like 116.2 meters of 2.6 grams per tonne gold and 0.65% copper and 171 meters of 1.5 grams per tonne gold 0.10% copper. This deposit is looking like it has several million-ounce potential long-term. Newcrest has the right to earn up to 60% interest in the project by delivering a Feasibility Study and spending an additional $25 million. We should get a better idea of just how significant Havieron is with a resource estimate expected before year-end and a scoping study at some point in FY2021."

GLA - Paddy

https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/newcrest-anticipates-strong-pipeline-of-projects/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The full text of the Chairman's & MD address is available to download here.

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-11/201111_2020%20AGM%20Chairman%20and%20MD%27s%20Address.pdf

"As announced in April 2020, we have now earned a 40% interest in the Havieron project
which is located near our Telfer mine in Western Australia. Our exploration results from
Havieron continue to demonstrate the continuity of higher grade mineralisation over an
expanded mineralisation footprint. These results signal the very real potential for a
renewal of our asset portfolio in the Paterson province.

The grades we are seeing at Havieron are unique for this region. Our best intercept to
date consisted of 121 metres at 9.3 grams per tonne gold and 0.18% copper, including
27 metres at 34 grams per tonne gold and 0.23% copper. We are excited to progress
and accelerate our evaluation of this opportunity.

Studies are well underway to investigate the potential of starting construction of an
exploration decline by the end of the calendar year, or in early 2021, subject to obtaining
the necessary approvals. The decline will allow us to drill more efficiently and further
define the scope of the deposit and understand the associated geology.

Subject to continued positive results from our studies, commencement of a decline at
Havieron will also accelerate the timeframe in which first ore could be produced, with the
potential to achieve commercial production within two to three years from
commencement of the decline. We hope to release an initial resource in the coming
months, with the prefeasibility study expected to be completed late in calendar year
2021."

Q& A session may be a little more enlightening - Paddy

He's wrong in his article though - he says the following -

"Newcrest told investors that it’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of extracting one ounce of gold form its largest mine (Cadia in NSW) was US$843."

That was the average AISC across the business - the actual AISC for Cadia was far, this sentence is directly from the Newcrest report.

"Our world-class Cadia asset continues to impress, reporting its lowest ever quarterly All-In Sustaining Cost of $113 per ounce, equating to an AISC margin of $1,724 per ounce for the quarter"

I don't think Havieron will get to Cadia levels of AISC but Hannam have estimated an AISC of $440 per ounce which would still leave Newcrest / GGP with a very healthy profit margin and would substantially improve the average AISC of the business as Telfer has a high current AISC of $1,797.

Getting towards the business end of the year now - looks like there is going to be a lot of news shoe-horned in between now and the end of December starting with the Newcrest AGM.

It is at 10.30am Melbourne time on Wednesday morning which I believe is 11.30pm tomorrow night UK time. Here is the page to register - I think you can register to watch from 11.00pm tomorrow evening.

https://www.newcrest.com/investor-centre/agm

ATB - Paddy

@strudel - here's where the Antipa drilling is in relation to our targets - as AM90 says they are very close and that augurs well for us.

https://ibb.co/Xpt4rtq

ATB - Paddy