Member Info for 99icecream

The option price would have been fixed when they were issued which could be several years ago. The PAT Annual Report and Accounts will show what PAT options are outstanding and their call prices, issue dates etc.

Impressive c.v., mostly based in Washington (besides a period as Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Bulgarian Government). Vast experience in international dispute arbitration.

As far as I am aware, the ICSID only awards a fixed sum of damages. An incentive of an agreed deal is that it could be made much more affordable for Morocco / OPC. They could agree on a combination on a cash sum paid on agreement, plus a royalty on each tonne of product sold.

I think you have to assume that Morocco will have access to good advice and they have had several experiences of arbitration in the past. It is also probable that Morocco would want to resolve the matter quickly so that OCP can develop both Khemisset sites. Further, OCP would have the funds to compensate EML. So there is the possibility that this could be settled in the short term.

There is clearly a difference between a mining company that obtains exploration rights on a site know to be a good prospect, but then fails to explore and establish a JORC Resource and a credible mining plan etc. this should be valued at some multiple of cost (i.e. as a prospect).

EML has drilled the site and got the JORC, has developed a credible plan for mining and further established a way to maximise value using a new process which has significant environmental benefits both for the mine site (not storing a liquid waste) and in terms of the production of Struvite (etc) which outperform tradition Phosphate fertilizers (in terms of slow release, - improving take-up by target plants and reducing pollution of waterways).

The NPV valuation is both appropriate and credible IMHO.

Https://www.tase.co.il/en/content/knowledge_center/trading_vacation_schedule#vacations

Holiday schedule

Https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVPT.TA/

Stock code is NVPT - exchang Telaviv

It is is possible that a claim will also be made for the value of the mine sites at Khemisset now owned by OCP. On page 69 of the EML Prospectus (9 May 2018) there is a map of the EML licences. They surround 2 areas which were owned by ONHYM (a Moroccan government agency). Allegedly, these were sold to OCP in a non-transparent deal, rather than EML (who would be the obvious buyer in a fair auction).

If this is a part of the claim that EML make at the ICISD, then the sum claimed could be significantly greater.

Lots of possibilities here. My opinion is that, there is a very high probability that the claim will be at or close to $2.2Billion.

Given, the history here I suspect EML may have taken advice before the 1 Feb 2024 valuation of how best to prepare for the possibility that even the new KMP process would not result in Morocco granting all the required permissions. With the $2.2 Billion figure published, Morocco knew the likely consequence of not fulfilling their obligations under the BIT.

I agree with Driving. Zanaga is worth far more when built and selling DR standard Iron Ore (valuation based on EBITDA), than the value at the FID stage (valuation based on NPV).

Bumpingalong - You need to look at the map on the Arcadia website (under Projects - Swanson Tantalite Project).

You will see that the Kazera Global mine - Tantalite Valley Mine, is next to an Arcadia prospect called Tantalite Valley Complex (one of many in the Valley).

Extrader - unfortunately its difficult to comment on you prices and premiums of high quality DRI Iron Ore. So many of these data have gone behind pay-walls. The benchmark is 62% Iron Ore, there will be a premium for 68%, an additional premium for DRI quality (low impurities with the size of the premium dependent on the extent of the impurities); then another premium if delivered in pellet form.

IMHO - Zanaga is approaching development at a very good time. Various parties are looking at their plans for "Green Steel" / investment in Electric Arc Furnaces etc. (e.g. see Nippon Steel below) and will want / need to secure their access to DR grade Iron Ore now. Getting strategic investment or funding from selling off take should not be difficult.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/japans-nippon-steel-banks-on-dri-for-green-steel-breakthrough/

Zanaga ..... it's not Just Iron Ore Pellet Feed...... its Direct Reduction High Grade Iron Ore Pellet Feed with only 2.2% Impurities .... (with apologies to M&S)

Graphene was first isolated at Manchester University is by Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov

Their research resulted in the 2010 Nobel Prize

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2010/press-release/

University of Manchester continues to be a leader in Graphene Research under Geim and Novoselov

https://www.graphene.manchester.ac.uk/learn/discovery-of-graphene/

The assumption is a part of the RNS 27 Feb 2025. Which gives the NPV(10) = US$ 1.675 Billion (= approx 25p / Share) and EBITDA =US$ 733 million average per annum.

See Fig.5 (Historical and forecast MoP CFR Brazil Real US$/t 2023. Extract from Argus Media Marketing Report).

Personally, I would have gone for the current Potash Price (about US$ 360), but given the guaranteed Capital Expenditure cost, I would use NPV(8). Ironically the result is not very different.

The assumption is that if Jansen goes ahead as planned, Potash prices will not rise in real terms for 4/5 years and with then climb at about 3% real.

As regards AA. Polyhalite is a poor source of Potassium (it is 14% K2 O c.f. KCl which is 60%), it contain Magnesium and Calcium which is important some applications. To call it Potash is missing the point.

There is an assumption than when Jansen starts producing it will have an impact on Potash Prices because of its size. The recent (27 Feb 2025) DFS update uses Argus Media's forecast for real average future CFR Brazil Potash prices, which include their estimate of the impact of Jansen.

BHP delays Jansen potash project

https://www.reuters.com/business/bhp-delays-jansen-potash-project-costs-surge-logs-record-copper-output-2025-07-17/

The 4.4p trades are all small (so they pay the full offer price). For reasonable size the bid has been about 4.19 and the offer about 4.30 all day.

More likely to sell GEM shares (worth £ 500,000) than ZIOC shares (worth £5,900,000) IMHO.