Member Info for 99icecream

I basic principle of insurance is that you should not be materially better off as the result of a claim (as this would otherwise constitute a moral hazard - it would encourage dishonesty).

The insurers will get their 31 million back if the case eventually pays out. Rockhopper will need agree to that in writing before they get their insurance payout (although it will already be a term in the insurance contract ). Anything in excess of the 31 million that Rockhopper get will be theirs.

This is not a bad outcome for the insurers. More ICSID type claimants will take out insurance contracts as a result.

If you claim on your insurance (e.g. a car accident), your insurers will pay you and then seek to recover their loss from the party at fault. In this case if Rockhopper get the 31 m, it will be owed to the insurance company.

I would expect the various contracts with the lawyers, funders etc. anticipate the possibility that a claim might be annulled and need to be refiled (i.e. from their perspective its not over yet). The insurers will be paying out with the expectation of recovering their loss at a later date.

Rockhopper are not at fault regarding the ICSID claim. They appointed King and Spalding who take charge of the the claim. All parties that are out of pocket (including the insurance co.) will want to see the case represented at the ICSID, especially King and Spalding (whose track record / reputation is damaged by this).

LSE are missing today's RNS - CDI Monthly Movement.

Tranche 1 details here:-

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RKH/arbitration-award-receipt-of-funds-asgsbfxcrr5b5rj.html

I'm not sure what I would do with a Jackpot. But your periodic feature of Suffolk properties is inspirational. Today's "country house with an impressive curved-glass facade ...... in 17 acres" is particularly good !

FWIW - Summit and KP2 have been in bed together for 8.7 years now

Might be here:-

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.html?shareprice=KZG.GB.PL&share=Kazera-Global-Plc&trade-date=

September 2015 was the last time for 55p

On a historical note:

KP2 came to the market in April 2018. Issue price was 11p, (x 859 million shares) market value £94 million. The prospectus quotes a "current" Potash Price of $295 CFR Brazil.

Current price of KP2 is 3.4p (x 4,856 million shares) market value = £165 million. The latest world bank Potash Price (end April 2025) is $352 CFR Brazil.

On that basis KP2 looks very good value currently.

Possible value post funding:- If we take the numbers from the 27 Feb 2025 RNS - Kola Project Optimised DFS update. We have (on a 90% attributable basis, after Congo's 10% free carry):

NPV10% = $1.675 Billion which implies a share price of over 25p at current FX rates.

EBITDA = $ 733 million per annum which (using 10 x EBITDA) implies a share price of over £1.10 at current FX rates in four years time.

So my short answer would be over 25p per share.

BUT - The major risk in one of these projects is the construction cost (see Horizonte for what can happen when construction costs spiral out of control). So, the 10% risk weighting could be too high - Horizonte was using NPV 8% !

If we were to use NPV8% we would get a share price of over 35p.

ALSO - The value of KP2 will include Kola and their next project (following 4 years behind Kola), which could easily add 10p - 15p to the valuation.

End of May, yes !

This weekend would be an ideal time to finalise / sign the financing. Sunday and Monday will be workdays is places where the royalty / off-take might be done. KP2 not trading in UK or Australia at this time. Possible we will see trading suspended in South Africa for Monday. I'm not as confident of a result before end of June as LT (say 80% probability) given KP2's track record on target dates. However, I'm much more optimistic on the new trading price when it is done.

Zanaga came to the market in Nov 2010 with 280 million shares and a share price of £1.56 each. At that time half the project was worth £ 437 million.

Which implies for the full project there would have been 560 million shares worth £ 874 million.

So currently with 832 million shares x 8p each (= £ 67million) it's not so bad !

No documents yet.

They have done everything except complete the Beehive drills.

Infill drilling 100% complete at Camp Lode and Northern Syncline deposits.

· Exploration drilling completed on new Northern Syncline (West) target.

· Step-out drilling at the exciting new Beehive deposit is underway.

Tellodome - Total Drills are about 220. 20% are Infill, 80% Step-out.

Infill - Northern Syncline Eastern Limb (16% approx) - Camp Lode (4% Approx)

Step-out - Northern Syncline Western Limb (30% approx) - Beehive (50% Approx)

The 250k @ 1.585 is a buy BTW ... sorry for typo