Member Info for 99icecream

The 350k @ 1.585 is a buy BTW

I suspect what SPAngel had in mind was something like a farm in/out deal, where the partner funds the non-debt portion (or most of it) in return for an equity share. However, I didn't give this much attention as the Summit deal was a far better solution.

Obviously the sale of half the project might or might not give sufficient cash to provide KP2's $300 million equity

This is the SP Angel document. Partner for half is part of their worst case valuation (giving a 4.4p value) where they assume half the project is sold to a partner and KP2 is left to fund the remaining 1Billion, 300 million equity and 700 debt.

As ATB reminds us Summit are not proposing we have a partner for half.

My point about the bank lending to the project, was I can't understand why you would assume its only 50%, whereas on most similar projects its 70%. Here its most likely 70% debt supplied by the Chinese Development Banks to fund a project carried out by a Chinese state owned entity.

This debt is the cheapest form of funding as its secured on the mine. In effect the lending on the mined Potash is sub-ordinate (more risky) debt and hence more expensive.

I'm not quite sure what your point is here. Summits proposed financing structure involves a royalty financing which is obviously a loan and involves interest (and hence is not Sharia compliant). A streaming deal is more likely. From the Google AI:-

"A royalty deal is generally considered acceptable if it involves genuine ownership or rights to the underlying asset, rather than simply a passive "royalty interest".

LT - A couple of points regarding you comments on valuation etc.

You assume only 50% debt, whereas as even the brokers that look at the worst case valuation (e.g. SP Angel 25 March) assume 70% Debt (and 30% Equity).

In addition, you value the off-take as if its equity (i.e. taking 50% of the NPV). An off-take is simply a forward sale, with the sale price being paid on delivery. What KP2 should have is an off-take deal in which the price is paid up-front and Potash is delivered in the future, with the up-front price being at discounted price (technically its called a Streaming deal). In effect you are borrowing against (some of) the Potash you will mine. BTW as the interest here is in the form of a discounted price (and not a interest rate) and this is acceptable for Sharia compliance.

You are correct to assume that as soon as this deal is done the value of KP2 should also reflect the possibility of additional development as the management team will have 4 years approx to bring forward the next project. Suppose the next deal is similar to this one in risk / cash flow terms, (and starts in 4 years) with an NPV (@10%) of £1.0 Billion. Then the NPV of project 2, today, is £ 1.0 Billion / 1.4641 = £ 0.683 million.

"It’s being purposefully manipulated..another 2 x 250 buys are being late reported"

As its just under £20k could be a Bed and ISA.

Today's option exercise was by a former Director (either Clarke, Harris or Johnson) as they are no longer with the firm there is no need to report the name. A further 5m was exercised 2 April by another former Director. My guess would be that today's former Director has sold sufficient shares to fund the option exercise (say 3millon). There is potentially another 5m Options left to exercise before 3 June which may add to the perceived "overhang" of shares.

Just evidence of how quiet the market is. I guess everyone is happy with what they have going into the next news.

8 Trades at ZAC 80 and 1 trade at ZAC 79.00. So far nothing in GBP !

As a Director, if you are concerned about the potential of a closed period preventing your option exercise, then you exercise early as Dennis has here (option expiry is 2 June 2025).

In the context of a closed period and share dealing by directors in the UK, "dealing" refers to any transaction involving the company's shares, including buying, selling, transferring, exercising options, or using shares as security. It also encompasses transactions related to the issuer's debt instruments or financial instruments linked to them

Specific Examples:

Purchases and Sales: Buying or selling shares in the open market or via private transactions.

Transfers: Transferring shares to other individuals or entities.

Exercising Options: Exercising share options granted under a share scheme.

Receiving Shares: Receiving shares as part of a share scheme or award.

Using Shares as Security: Using shares as collateral for a loan or other obligation.

Agreements: Entering into, amending, or terminating agreements related to shares, including derivative contracts.

Option exercise is dealing as far as the rules are concerned, because inside knowledge could influence the decision of exercise vs. letting the options expire worthless.

They have been very open about having high expectations of obtaining approval of Perdevlei. When they have approval they will announce it promptly. Therefore no closed period is necessary.

Option exercise would be considered to be dealing for the purposes of the closed period rules. Closed periods operate before the release of financial results and other times when directors etc. have inside information.

FWIW - I doubt DX would be sold. As it stands the project is too small and too expensive to generate any interest. Additionally, the real profits are not made by selling a mining site but by developing. For example, from the figures in the 27 Feb 2025 RNS Kore's Kola project should have an EBITDA of US$ 733 million per annum when its producing, valuing Kola at EBITDA x 10 gives a share price of over £1 (in say 5 or 6 years time).

I see DX being explored further (too get a higher JORC numbers) and then reworked using directional drilling - significantly increasing the size and reducing operating costs.

Just delayed on AIM. The London Stock Exchange website shows all KP2 trades reported so far, are GBP trades.

Whilst other salts of Potassium might be used in Fertilizer, KCl is the ideal one as it contains the most Potassium (60% by weight) and is soluble.

The point was, that you claimed knowledge of a new find of 70 Billion Tonnes of Potash in Norway, when it was in fact 70 Billion Tonnes of Phosphate. So not strictly relevant to EML (but maybe to OCP).

So this is a comment by Alan Green an Analyst / Investor and not otherwise connected with BRES ?