Member Info for 4everlong

Seis as you correctly stated:

"The EBITDA for chrome / PGM's in H1 was US$16.5m so to be in line with FY24 that would mean an EBITDA for chrome / PGM's in H2 of about US$8m. Either I'm over-estimating the chrome margin in H2 (which is certainly possible) or they are downplaying the EBITDA a bit."

I have also have an issue with that.

In essence they are telling the market that they haven't seen any benefit from the massive upswing in Pgms. That's an own goal as far as the share price is concerned.

If the sale wasn't being motivated for the by the board, I am sure the wording would have been significantly more upbeat. We've all seen THAT movie before. In a different world they would be emphasizing their resilience, flexibility, and ability to adjust to changing market conditions. I have a vague memory, that in one of the many roast interviews, LC stated that when the Pgm basket crossed a certain threshold was another JV or project would kick in. I cannot recall the detail though. I'm sure we are way over that threshold! But my recollection or detail might be off the mark.

I too look forward to seeing the actual numbers.

@Shuvlin.

I stated it was an impartial observation. The RNS certainly downplayed the SA status and emphasized the current chrome price etc while neutralising expectations on PGMs.

The agreement wrt the PGM JV could certainly be revisited given the current status. I had anticipated we would already see the benefit of the Pgm jv in the last month or so.

Excerpt from the Pgm jv RNS:

Jubilee agrees a joint partnership with an existing PGM producer to process part of the Company's surplus PGM & chrome stock.

- The surplus surface stock of PGM bearing material is driven by the sharp increase in chrome production at Jubilee's operations reaching a record 974 659t for the six months ending 31 December 2024 (H1 FY2025).

- Under the Agreement Jubilee is looking to commence deliveries at 18 000tpm of chrome and PGM bearing material, with the potential to increase deliveries to 30 000tpm.

- The increased PGM processing capacity equates to an estimated 11 500 PGM ounces per annum assuming a feed rate of 30 000tpm, which is in addition to the Company's existing PGM processing capacity.

- Under the terms of the Agreement, earnings generated from the project are shared equally.

- Jubilee has agreed to an initial Agreement term of 12 months, which the parties may extend into a long-term agreement.

It would appear to a casual observer that today's SA update has been prepared and released to set the stage for the motivation to sell and to transition to Zambia.

Let the market stew on the info then produce the golden goose scenario for Zambia. Then walk the deal thru.

Game, Set & Match.

One option that no one seems to have contemplated is that another party decides to make an offer for SA.

The industry would be aware of the current status wrt the offer to Jubilee and it is not unreasonable to think one of the big corporates see value and synergy in Jubilee wrt the current Pgm prices and chrome.

They could put a significant bid / counter offer for the full amount up front.

There a few companies that come to mind.

@ Fishy. I doubt very much if there is a hidden agenda.

If there were significant financial / cash flow issues at the time, the current Pgm prices would resolve that rapidly.

Accept that the offer was created well BEFORE the Pgm basket took off AND submitted to the board BEFORE this as well.

As they say, hindsight is 20 20 vision. Your comment is relative to the situation now, at least 2 months later and after the rapid change.

2 months ago, the board felt the offer had merit and warranted submitting to shareholders for a decision. They would provide reasoning for the possible sale and possibilities in expediting Zambia. Also motivating for using the capital for opportunities there.

☆ Did YOU foresee Pgms being at this price in that space of time??? If you did why are you here?

The share holders are in the driving seat even if some II's initially supported the proposal. We are well positioned for a major rerate.

@Eagle. The value isn't changing by the day at this rate, it's almost by the hour 😂.

The delayed circular has definitely been in our favour, although most won't appreciate that right now.

Fair comment Gotreal.

Until the circular is released, and assuming it answers the many questions that we expect it to, everything else is speculation based on opaque communications to date.

Until then we will continue to discuss the various permutations and possible outcomes.

The only certainty IMHO is a significant rerate in 2 weeks. PI's should realise that there is no way that significant shareholders would vote for something that would have a negative impact on their own holdings. Their decision would obviously be to ensure the best outcome to create value. The most significant holder has +- 11%. In the event that II's felt it was a great deal (whatever the final numbers are), all II's would have to act in unison with some PI's to proceed with the sale. A number of posters imply that Slater has the over riding vote and final decision which is ridiculous.

If one of the reasons for delaying the release of the circular for as long as possible, was in fact to determine whether the Pgm spike was an anomaly it seems they have their answer!!

The value of the SA PGM/Chrome business is rising daily with not much indication of stalling.

Assuming the "up to" definition was related to the minor fluctuations in Pgm prior to the RNS the "up to" should now indicate $135m.

Combined with Zambia updates we are heading for a significant rerate. LFG!!

Well we haven't left yet, and there has been no indication that we are going to either. The offer to management was before Pgm lift off so any internal discussions would have taken place in that context. It might have sounded acceptable then but the current status is significantly different.

The board are not ignorant of developments.

Let's hope sanity prevails Seis.

Current share price is ridiculous given nav , current, and future implied value.

The only way is up!! 🎯

Blue B, I agree with you 100%. No argument from me!

I was just advising that imho I don't think the upswing is only going to be when the vote is out. The circular (surely they can't c*ck that up?) will give the market some clarity. The current share price is due to poor and badly timed management communications. Uncertainty is never good.

There is too much value and massive upside for there not to be a major rerate once the market has clarity.

Tick tock.....🕙🕙🕙

AB I think the release of the circular is going to catch the traders off guard. It won't be when they expect it. They are running amok at the moment while the weak hands are being flushed out.

I've got $50 that's says Jubilee is up a minimum 20% within 5 days of release of circular.

Jubilee down 20% since June 5 RNS.

The only way is up.....

Looking forward to a significant correction in 2 weeks, when the circular is finally released.

Let's take over unders and see who's closest.

I reckon 720 posts on that day. Any takers?

At an average of 35 post a day PRE circular, we can expect another 420 posts to wade throught till then 😂. We all have no idea but of course the permutations are endless!

It's highly entertaining and we're going to be lost when the dust eventually settles and we see only a handful of posts a day in a month or 2's time.

Then it will mainly be the " I told you so!" crowd (the few who happened to speculate closer to the mark).

But, on the day of the circular....... I expect the servers are going to crash. They will never handle the volume and the cross chats will be off the charts. I'm really looking forward to that. I will take the day off. It's going to be spectacular. 🍺

Shuvlin I'm not sure why you feel the need to insult Papaki. I don't recall seeing a single post from him that was out of line or derogatory to anyone.

The fact that he represents 8 million shares entitles him to an opinion and he has put his money where his mouth is. I'm not sure what your holding is, but given the fact that his shares were purchased 3 years ago his reflects a substantial loss. Papaki is 100% entitled to voice his opinion even if that differs from your brief.

Like most on this platform we all bought into the continued hype from LC, and the support he had here, as well as the paid for interviews and analysts who backed the projections up. It seems today there was lots of smoke and mirrors, as there were many issues hidden from shareholders.

I personally support many of his views and share his frustrations. We know this company's potential and we are now at a major crossroads. The loss of key staff is a concern.

His comments wrt to the sale of SA and the highlighting of the many issues / with suggestions wrt Zambia are all valid.

The one significant point that I disagree with him is the change in CEO. I think this would be a mistake, as now is the time that we need stability, and to start reaping the rewards the long suffering investors deserve.

SA should now be printing money and in my opinion that could be used to raise capital for Zambia without killing the golden goose. It seems that there is a massive opportunity in Zambia hence the proposal but there must be another way to secure the funds for that. It makes no sense to wait years for PGMs to finally recover, and then sell based on the prior figures. The break fee should be insignificant.

I appreciate the circular will provide more detail but unless the "up to" is changed to > $120m it wouldn't make sense at this stage of the Pgm cycle.

Thanks Seis.

The longer the RNS has taken the worse the deal looks 🤷.

The share price would easily have been at 6 or 7p, if not more, had this deal not been announced at the most inopportune time.

Only 2 weeks to go!

The potential sale discussed exclusively with major shareholders prior to the release of the circular or the initial RNS? There are insider trading compliance issues.

Compliance with regulations:

Boards must ensure that any communication with shareholders complies with relevant regulations, such as those prohibiting selective disclosure of material non-public information.

In this case there MIGHT be a small fee to be paid by Jubilee in the event that shareholders don't accept the deal, related to costs incurred. It depends on the proposal. LC definitely seemed to be making a big pitch for the sale.

The upside would be that the fee should be insignificant compared to the upside in Pgm.

The board and LC would be remiss if they agreed to anything else.

This is the tricky part. We don't know what the board agreed to or what these pre conditions were. We certainly hope at a minimum that one of these IS share holder approval. But as we know with Jubilee anything is possible.

☆☆☆

The Binding Offer includes a reciprocal break fee to both parties subject to the conclusion of certain pre-conditions. 

☆☆☆