Member Info for 13thmonkey

Is there some culling of posts going on? there was definitely a post mortem post that's no longer around?

they spent less than 1/2 of what they raised on Launch...

What's the point in not being calm... we have no influence, what will be will be. This happened in June, I was annoyed then that I didn't read the signs and sell early but there was logic behind the reasons for the drop that made sense at the time. And I though, as I assume others did, that there was potential.
A few weeks before I thought about writing to someone, I think I may have messaged one of the usual interviewers to 'have a word' should have said sod that I'm not their mentor, if I'm not happy with it then act without compassion. That's a lesson learned and that's all we can do.

Launch is cash generative so an ever increasing cash pot, it has the ability to get stuff into market, I believe we have a technology stack that will let us put things into that channel that have a material advantage over other things in that channel or are unique, I believe that without that purchase it would have been 10x harder to get any Dx products into the market. So for whatever the cost was they get income, and the ability to actually do something with Dx without complicated risky investment, building the whole infrastructure for 1-2 lines (to start with) is more risky than having the whole infrastructure working, in place, mature and adding 1-2 product lines.
A lot of belief in there, but that's my risk, but my belief is based on the purported ability of Affimers to be tuned to be very sensitive, that has been demonstrated, we had a very accurate test, should we have looked at a different element of covid, probably, how many other targets are this variable not many. Tactical mistake, strategy still sound. Can I envisage a world where there are temperature stable and long shelf live tests for a wide range conditions sat in doctors offices, such that they can test a patient there and then in one visit not 2, yes I can, and I can see how there would be a nett cost saving and overall benefit. Can I see tests for sepsis being useful, yes. I can see a market, and I can see a technology to fill that market need better than it is currently being filled. Could I see how we were going to make, market, sell and support it, no, but I can now.

I the message to II's might be, look this is what we have, we're talking to x,y,z you can see where this is going, do you want to be on the train or not? If you do then there's the open market, I'll leave to work out what you think this could be worth compared to where we are now.
Is there a case for saying we'll issue a small number of shares at a premium (or not) if you want volume, but all that will do is pop a load of cash in the bank, and cash is only a part of the problem, to go it alone there's a lot of structure and presence to be built out and that will take time, alongside the trials. Let's say that they double the number of shares available at todays price and raise circa £450M, all that most of that will do for at least 12-18months is sit in a bank, maybe a downpayment on production facilities etc. offices, lots of long lead time stuff, and hiring of people We don't need more cash yet, we need a higher SP so that more cash is less diluting in the future.

Launch would have dev costs built into their running costs, so it could all be included in that now.

Neutronic, I believe you are asking what other reasons are there for going down that path other than knowing that funding for tx is on its way. And, if it works, then I can't think of one, they must be happy that funding for tx will come or not be needed. They just needed enough to get them to that point. I'm expecting BO or stage payments for 3996, and then probably BO as going it alone is a very very big ask even with the money in the bank.

I thought they were just robo written, so how they get affimer wrong I've no idea.

Your second paragraph might be over egging it, it could easily be until disease progression stop them participating and that just hasn't happened yet. It needn't mean it's been stopped in it's tracks.

agreed, in mice is was 18x and they have more free floating FAPa, so whilst it is a 'wish' it's not outside of the realms of possibility.

There's a lot of conjecture there... I expect in 6 months someone will be saying 'why isn't this something you take all the time, we were told it would be' waaaaah. Along with asking for data they won't understand.

Would you take a contract in another currency without knowing the exchange rate or the cost of living? It's the same thing, unless you have the wider context of what a number means items irrelevant.
Get it?

Remember the minimum bar for this is the same level of dox in the tumour (I'd suggest that's a therapeutic level), and lower side effects. If we achieve that then we are better than dox, have access to a bigger market than dox and will be cheaper to treat with than dox.
The three comments of therapeutic levels no cardio toxicity and marked reduction in side effects means we have reached that bar. It is very difficult to interpret that otherwise.
Knowing how much better is irrelevant for us mortals, is 10% extra dox a lot? Is 100% extra too much and wasteful, I've no idea. But being able to put the same amount into the tumour and being able say, go play golf tomorrow, no need to be in bed all day on pain killers. That's the key message. If the answer was 5, what would that mean? Is 5 good? Is it a lot better than 3 a lot worse than 10, unless this is your field it means nothing.

One could get a complex about threads going missing, there's a massive rabbit hole to go down.

Sorry misunderstanding.

Nope not me, and £15 isn't enough for me.

I'm not sure what you read RAH, I can understand how those numbers can be achieved, I can see the logic, but I can also see that people who don't see that logic could view them as being fanciful, I'm not sure what your problem is with that. There is nothing in any of my posts that can be viewed as negative.

So that had the mcap at $6 as being on the order of $300mn? So a nice factor of 15x.

5-8bn I see as being for ava6000 as a minimum price. How much would some one pay to dominate the use of doxyrubicin, no one else will want anything but the targeted low side effect version. Currently 1.5bn per year, but constrained by side effects. So that will increase, hence that's the baseline.
As to then having access to the rest of the prodrugs, I'd say minimum of 50% on top, probably more like twice as much again, so each of the 11 other pro drugs world only be worth 0.2x ava6000. Which will be bargain, and is conservative.
Then there's everything else ..
So I see 7.5bn to 24bn expanding on your 5-8bn, that lower value is bottom estimates for everything.
Does it seem fanciful, yes, can you tell me why? I doubt it.

Here's the simple view:
Drug companies do not need sales at the point of an offer.
Offers can be for multiples of estimated future sales (the onus is then on buyer to get it into the market and selling).
So there can be a value £V attributed to a drug that some buyer thinks has a good enough chance of success to be worthwhile buying, for several reasons, one of which might be to stop someone else owning it, or to extend the the use of a drug upon which it is based.
A platform can enable many drugs, there are I believe a dozen planned for, all of which operate on the same principle, take a current known, understood drug that targets cancers that have a particular characteristic and make it target that cancer more accurately. That's the platform.
Logically the value of the platform must be >£V, ideally the sum of all V's from 1 to 12 + some factor for 13+ that have not been identified yet, but more realistically some multiple that creates good value for the buyer and is sufficient for the seller. But it must be greater than V.
How much greater? no idea. But many V's are set by one buyer, a platform could attract many which will naturally increase V, and many V's are set before sales, and before 100% proof is obtained. Proof in this case is simpler to come by as it's a known drug, and we are just getting it to the target.

Beyond this there are other tracks that Avacta are working on, that in the future may hold great value, so that's another addition to V, but again this would probably get wrapped up in some multiple.

I await an honest response.