RE: GKP and its position right now.1 May 2024 23:09
Straycat, thoughts on what exactly? Were there questions in your ramble?
"Oh yes, and we’re sat on an oil field with a twenty eight year expiration date." Well, this bit is wrong but that's been pointed out already.
Your item 6 is where a big chunk of value rests / is at risk. It's a particularly big chunk because it contains a lot of cost recovery.
Re 7, yes, they will consider investment (as opposed to the current minimal maintenance capex) when/if things (contracts, arrears, exports) are resolved to their satisfaction. Not before. "these are choices GKP will make whatever the ICG think or say." A Field Development Plan requires an agreed contract (particularly with respect to cost recovery). Both go hand in hand. The level of cost recovery in the contract scopes the size of the FDP that can be agreed. If the discussions, when they start in earnest, break down fundamentally (e.g. low cost recovery envelope in the contract and large FDP expected) then we are really in trouble. Sure, we have no debt. But we do have a current equity value to lose. What would that be worth if there was complete and utter disagreement with our employer? If you've no business then the existence or not of debt doesn't matter that much.
So, as I've said before, everything is at stake. Luckily, we are still likely best-placed to develop our field (just as the other APIKUR members are with respect to their fields) and so replacing us isn't a sensible option for SOMO/Iraq...although it doesn't have a zero probability should discussions get protracted and ugly.