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Thank you once again for sharing with this bb your experience and insights at the meeting yesterday - much appreciated.
Also, to SNN, IPC66 and Sparky for the continued and valuable breakdowns/opinions. Very helpful.
GLA.
The future seems to hinge around BK's majority holding.
Any meaningful placing from him would change that.
He's young for a boss so little change of him retiring or stepping back for the foreseeable future.
I just wonder if there's a price he would consider being bought out for.
Thanks for that additional info ShareNicelyNow 👍😀
Sheltie - only SP Angel (on Yu's IR website) and Liberum (on Research Tree).
Both have very similar forecasts and price targets. Though for now, they are taking guidance from the company. Company has given guidance for a 50% increase in revenue and EBITDA margin close to 8%. Quick calculation is revenue of £690m, EBITDA of £41.4m, with tax at 25% and 16.8m shares is eps at 246p. I think we will be somewhere at eps of 300p (and some on here are suggesting higher).
It doesn't help that broker target prices still have us on PERs under 10!
Similar for myself and not planning on selling. The dividend will hopefully improve further and current yield, if you bought at 80p etc, is better than other stocks right now
Great and many thanks for that response. . . ATB
@sheltie - SP Angel cover them and their update is available now. TP of 1900p more conservative than Liberum but again have upgraded all numbers
Does anyone have any further Broker information other than that of Liberum by any chance? They have a "Buy" rating and have upped their TP to just over £20, if I am not mistaken? But, I don't know of any other Broker reports. Can anyone assist - assuming that another Broker out there, is actually also covering Yu of course!? Thanks for any further information in this regard. ATB 🤠
Absolutely agree, I research daily and can't find anything better than Yu. Good energy comes close and many stocks are undervalued in the uk market but nothing with as high conviction like Yu. I really wanna send BK a thank you gift lol
Evening folks.
I am one of those lucky ones who bought very cheap a few years ago. I just wish I'd gone bigger! I'm not a serious investor type, and if I'm completely honest I bought in at 80p on a whim really when I happened to stumble across it on here. It looked like a decent speculative prospect when all the debt was cleared. As such it only occupies a small corner of my portfolio but thankfully I doubled my initial holding a bit later when it had climbed to around 200.
It's proven to be my best ever investment, and am thrilled that it appears that the ride still seems far from over....
I originally planned to sell if it reached £15, but now I'm thinking I may not sell at all for the foreseeable, since I could let it grow in my sipp from dividends, as I think this company will be around for the long haul, and possibly a major industry player in the years to come.
Good luck all
Thanks NG , Shell wanting a JV deal doesn’t surprise me one bit , they always tend to want a stake in the companies they deal with. Shell are obviously impressed with YU and looking long term in churning billions per annum.
I ask all the time why are we so cheap, again today many sellers even after that Stella performance and future outlook, but for once the SP just chewed through the sellers and now they will be chasing the SP if they want back in.
YU is such a rare stock , low MC, single digit PE, debt is peanuts, cash is just ridiculous, grow is Stella and now an income stock as well.
I think we have now moved from first gear to second gear and 2024 has the potential to be explosive.
YU will be a billion pound MC company the question is when.
Thanks for the de-brief, Gacky.
Churn is a shocker! Crafty TPIs, explains why they (Yu) are wanting to develop the self marketing side, with less reliance on TPIs. But shows how attractive Yu are to NEW customers. If only they could keep them. Also, confirms what I've said before about acquisitions - they are risky, and there's no guarantee customers will stay, as with the Solrs.
Interesting point re Shell wanting a stake - it's too lowly priced for BK to accept. But may come in the future with a sensible valuation.
Share premium is needed - cash balances are way over distributable reserves. Legal process expected to complete in Q3, allowing for a special dividend perhaps in Q4, with the interim payment (ie December!)
I was sceptical about a share buyback before. But they now mention it - it won't take much of one to move up the price, so they may do this to get the SP up, if the market doesn't do it on its own. The company will not have any qualms about bidding up the price (within the limits allowed), whereas many investors do. £1m to £2m, 1% of the capital would be enough imo to make a real difference.
I've said many times, the only way in for IIs is a placing from BK - won't happen until the price is right. It's looking like the company is positioning itself in this direction.
Thanks again Gacky.
Sounds like it was very productive use of your time, any mention that it was being recorded for general release?
Great presentation today from Bobby and Paul. You could feel how excited Bobby was about how the company had performed and continues to perform. The Shell deal is a massive deal. Shell as a producer of gas and energy wants to have a known market to sell into. Octopus Energy provide this for B2C and now Yu do the B2B side. Shell knows what they are producing and they can know now what price they will be selling it at years in the future. It works for Shell and works for Yu! They did want to do a JV and buy part of the company, but it is too early for BK to consider this yet. Too much growing to do in the short to medium term!! The agreement is very capital light, requiring very little capital indeed to be held on the balance sheet.
Smart is now beginning to get the engineers they need, partly to do with the training school Yu Group have set up. 50 people at the year end, already up to 77 at the 19/03/24 and hoping for 200 by the end of the year.
The 100,000 target was reconfirmed (or there abouts,) if it's in the 90's I don't think he will get a hard time, but the main reason for it is to have something to aim at. They do however think they will manage to get there!
The EBITDA margin of 10.9% may have been because one or two things assisted the figure, and can't be relied upon to happen again, 6.5% to 8% is what they want people to work with. With the sound that it will be at the top end, rather than where Liberum are, but that is for prudence and we are still early in the year.
There don't appear to be anything to buy with the cash, the smaller companies will fall by the wayside and the likes of Yu will get bigger. They will continue to take share from the big 6. So, with nothing in the largest 17 looking attractive, and the smaller suppliers gradually failing. The cash will benefit the shareholders either in special dividends or share buybacks. They want the £11.9m from the share premium account, available to distribute.
The TPI's encourage businesses to move at the end of the contract, so they justify there fee's, so churn is around 55%. The aim is to get the retention around 70%. Again an internal target that they want to try and achieve.
There were around 15 people on the call, and I don't think anyone will have gone away failing to be utterly impressed with what has been achieved so far. And if I got £1 each time someone said but why is the company so cheap, I would have been able to get a nice bottle of wine!!!
There was nothing not to like about the presentation to analysists today, I will be very surprised if we don't get some more Institutional involvement over the next few months/quarters as they build stakes. It may also mean that BK needs to let a few go. This would not be a negative, and should not be viewed as BK wanting to cash in. There is still too much to do, and the team seem totally focused on delivering it for us shareholders.
There is nowhere better in the market to have your cash IMHO, but DYOR!!
Definitely in breakout mode PE is just insane could double and still only 15 ish
Under 10 is for behemoths with limited growth but pays good dividends
We are high growth and good dividends
For what it's worth, I reckon this is looking at a break-out from here. The results have cemented that all is 100% going to plan and the graph now shows that it is ready to push on to its next high. Those were seriously good results today and more big players will want in, on the back of them. . . ATB
His motives were fairly obvious from yesterday morning...
Let's keep away from the bad smell guys and enjoy the great results. Just ignore him/her.
Slow and steady is best. Someone mentioned that income funds will start to sit up and take notice. That’s not an instant process. Team meetings, further analysis and buying in tranches. I’m hoping for more steady growth in the days ahead. MMs may try and panic us, but I think we have all seen what a diamond this one is on AIM!
JWBellamy - here is what you said at the start of play:- "There we go… barely a reaction. Traders will be looking to get out now given minimal rise"
I did say that you were being a bit quick to de-ramp this share at 08:09am!!
Thanks NG always appreciated
The capital reduction is going to be £11.9m, which more than covers the next dividend in itself. There is 3x cover in any case so hoping 40p is a floor
Just been reading the deck that SNN posted prior to having a chat. These targets are great to read. Ambitious and if hit should mean that eps for the current year will be over 300p. Fantastic net EBITDA margin of 10.9% in the second half of 2023. I just don't see this falling back to 6.5% like Liberum think. The digital by default quote has the margin built into it, and this has been steadily building due to the lack of competition. I know they are spending money recruiting staff for Yu Smart, but this is not falling to 6.5% for 2024.
I will post after meeting Sparky.
Need to wait now for NG,s feed back on the II roadshow
Some big ambition in there UK top 10 supplier wow
100,000 meter points in 2024
25k smart meters
2024 is going to be one hell of busy year for YU group
Good work YU keep it up your a credit to UK PLC